Phenol & Acetone. Chemicals Committee Meeting at APIC 2013 Taipei, 10 May (Joyce) Chen Xiaojue

Transcription

1 Phenol & Acetone Chemicals Committee Meeting at Taipei, 10 May 2013 (Joyce) Chen Xiaojue

2 China PHENOL CONSUMPTION ,000 Metric Tons 2,400 2,000 1,600 1, N America S America W Europe E Europe ME & Africa SE Asia NE Asia 0 Other Caprolactam Phenolic Resin BPA

3 PHENOL CONSUMPTION 2012 Other 9% Caprolactam 6% BPA 51% Phenolic Resins 34% Total = 8.6 Million Metric Tons

4 PHENOL CONSUMPTION 1,000 Metric Tons 10,000 Other Caprolactam 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Phenolic Resin BPA Phenol Demand Growth BPA 4.2% Phenolic Resins 3.1% Caprolactam (0.2%) Other 3.6% Total 3.5%

5 PHENOL CONSUMPTION 1,000 Metric Tons 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Capacity China NE Asia SE Asia ME & Africa E Europe W Europe S America N America

6 PHENOL ASSUMPTIONS In the forecasts shown here there have been no plant closures included, even though the gap between supply and demand widens significantly from 2014 However, there is a need for plant closures when the new capacities start to come on stream in China after 2014 It is possible that at least one plant may have to close in the USA, as much of its previous export market will have become self-sufficient Europe will have a surplus post 2015 for a short time, as exports to China cease, but domestic growth should preclude any closure It will also be necessary for some of the older and smaller plants in Asia to be shut down from 2014 onwards, especially as they will become uncompetitive

7 China ACETONE CONSUMPTION ,000 Metric Tons 1,400 1,200 1, N America S America W Europe E Europe ME & Africa S & SE Asia NE Asia 0 Other MMA BPA Solvent

8 ACETONE CONSUMPTION 2012 Other 14% Solvents 32% MMA 26% BPA 28% Total = 5.5 Million Metric Tons

9 ACETONE CONSUMPTION 1,000 Metric Tons 6,000 Other MMA BPA 4,000 2,000 0 Solvent Acetone Demand Growth MMA 3.4% BPA 4.2% Solvent 2.9% Other 3.2% Total 3.4%

10 ACETONE CONSUMPTION 1,000 Metric Tons 6,000 4,000 2,000 China NE Asia SE Asia ME & Africa E Europe W Europe S America N America

11 ACETONE ASSUMPTIONS The phenol derivatives growth rates post 2012 are made using established economic forecasts. Once done, the forward forecasts are adjusted so that the production equals the demand This means that the acetone production is dependent on the production of phenol and thus this availability restricts the forward demand for the acetone derivatives, except for BPA, which is linked to that made for phenol The following chart has been done with the expected forecast demand growth rate of 3.25% for solvents, which is not exceptionally high The consumption approached fairly close to the production in , after prices rose If the expected solvent growth rate is included, then the consumption will remain close to the availability from 2014 onwards, assuming no further new phenol capacity comes on stream after 2017

12 ACETONE CONSUMPTION v PRODUCTION 1,000 Metric Tons 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Production Other MMA BPA Solvent 3,000 2,000 1,

13 ACETONE RECOVERY SYSTEM Hydrogenation CH 3 COCH 3 + H 2 Catalyst (CH 3 ) 2 CHOH + 17 Kcal/mol (Exothermic) Acetone Isopropanol Dehydrogenation (CH 3 ) 2 CHOH Catalyst C 3 H 6 + H 2 O - 12 Kcal/mol (Endothermic) Isopropanol Propylene

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