1 Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 24-25, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture From Cotton To Retail: Consumption & Future Implications Robert Antoshak
2 From Cotton To Retail: Consumption & Future Implications USDA Outlook Forum By Robert Antoshak Managing Director
3 A Word About Olah Inc. Founded in 1959, Olah Inc. is a global textile and apparel development and marketing firm with offices in New York, Los Angeles and Hong Kong. Supported by dozens of experienced cotton, textile and apparel professionals, consults to textile companies, retail and apparel brands throughout the world. Created and hosts the internationally-renowned Kingpins Show. Holds the apparel marketing license for Bayer CropScience s FiberMax and Stoneville cotton.
4 There s Very Little Cotton Out There... There s no cotton there s very little cotton out there, said Joe Glauber, USDA Chief Economist. FINANCIAL TIMES, February 11, 2011 We are finding that in many instances, it's difficult to get finished cotton materials. When we are able to write an order, we find the cost has escalated. Right now, there is a panic setting in. Everyone is trying to make sure they are not short, said Jack Oulette, CEO of American Textile Co. PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW, February 12, 2011
5 There s Very Little Cotton Out There... Clothing prices will not double because of doubling cotton prices. Marketing margins are going to have to be squeezed, somewhat, said Terry Townsend, executive director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee. WALL STREET JOURNAL, February 12, 2011 The bulls have gone berserk, and it looks like they want prices to go higher, said Sid Love, President of Joe Kropf & Sid Love Consulting Services LLC. BLOOMBERG NEWS, February 17, 2011.
6 And, Of Course, At The Same Time Cotton Prices Did This... Source: ICE
7 What s Been The Result? Panic!
8 Bottom-Line? Thanks to the recent run up in cotton prices... An already tough business -- textiles, apparel and retail -- just got a lot tougher (not that cotton farming is easy)
9 Higher Cotton Prices Have Been Building Steam For Years: Weakening Global Stock-To-Use Ratios
10 The Recent Drop In U.S. Stocks-To-Use Ratio
11 Is This Spike In Prices For Real? Some people think this was another speculative bubble like was saw in But there are significant differences this time -- in particular, demand for cotton has risen with futures prices.
12 Does Cotton Add A Lot Of Cost? Simply asked: Does cotton add a lot of cost to clothing? Answer: It does for a spinner.? Did you know? About 80% of a spinner s cost is in raw fiber. But for finished clothing it s a whole different matter...
13 % Share of Total Retail Value The closer the segment is to the farmgate, the more price sensitive to cotton prices.
14 An Example: Theoretical Pass-Through For Cotton Product Avg. Retail Weight (lbs) Total Cotton Required (lbs) Theoretical effect of add l $1/lb T-Shirt $0.64 Polo Shirt $0.86 Woven Shirt $0.84 Jeans $2.50
15 Pass-Through Cost vs. Retail Price Net Retail Price Increase $ Per Unit % +3.9% +3.0% +6.9% 0 T-Shirt Polo Shirt Wov. Shirt Jeans
16 So What's The Big Deal About Dollar More A Shirt? It's a big deal for clothing and retail companies! For a company that sells 10 million shirts a year (not too big a company, BTW) that translates into $10 million of cost that needs to be offset somewhere. A rise of $10 million for a $100 million company is a lot of margin to give up or to pass on to their customers!
17 So Are There Options To Cotton? Yes, but... The blending option: run more polyester Two major reasons to do this: Price & Availability Let's look at each separately...
18 Is Polyester A Good Substitute Based On Price? Source: EmergingTextiles.Com
19 What About Polyester Availability? Source: FCStone Fibers & Textiles
20 So... My Point Is... Polyester is an uncertain option based on price But it is a good option when it comes to availability But what will consumers think? And that's the rub for a retailer -- they really don't know. Just like retailers don't know if consumer will pay more for a garment, they also don't know if they're willing to wear more synthetics, which is really important when the organic and green movements are considered!
21 What's A Retailer To Do? There's not a simple answer to that question, but a lot can be learned from looking at what's happened to the trade over the past twenty years or so...
22 The Big, Bad MFA More than any one event affecting the global market for textiles, the MFA did the most to build overcapacity
23 Which Is Why Today s Industry Acts As It Does... The global textile industry may be summarized as follows: Too many producers chasing too few customers and the customers know it! Rising input costs: more expensive energy, fibers, cost of operation - inflation!
24 And Has Set Up The "Big Squeeze" Customers Lower Prices Suppliers Higher Costs
25 And Has Set Up The "Big Squeeze" Customers Lower Prices Suppliers Higher Costs
26 And Has Set Up The "Big Squeeze" Customers Lower Prices Suppliers Higher Costs
27 And Has Set Up The "Big Squeeze" Customers Lower Prices Suppliers Higher Costs
28 And Has Set Up The "Big Squeeze" Customers Lower Prices Suppliers Higher Costs
29 And Has Set Up The "Big Squeeze" Customers Lower Prices Suppliers Higher Costs
30 The Squeeze: Retail Buyers Cut Prices to Lure Customers 2.50 Unit Price in U.S. Dollars Source: OTEXA, Dept. of Commerce
31 But There s More To The Story...
32 It Was The Heyday Of Sourcing! If one supplier couldn't meet the specs, then sourcing people could find or eager suppliers to fill it's place The result: prices could continue to fall A strong dollar didn't hurt either! The supply chain was squeezed until...
33 The Supply Chain Strikes Back!
34 This Will Be The Story Of Our Times In The Garment Business. The jump in cotton prices has actually helped the supply chain to push price increases downstream. At the same time, weaker players will be driven out -- both at the manufacturer and retail level. Inflation will increasingly come to dominate the entire textile supply chain. Those who don't figure out how to cope with environment will be out of business, but that also means there will be less players around to compete for business.
35 Remember, Retailers Had An Advantage It's one thing to expand ones margin while dropping production costs, but what about maintaining -- let alone expanding -- margins at a time of higher costs but weak consumer demand? Are retailers up to it? Sure, but there will be fallout in the retail sector.
36 But, Today Retail Demand Is Anemic Source: US Census Bureau/Emerging Textiles.Com
37 And Retailers Are Dealing With An Older Buyer 37 US. Median Age In Years Years Source: US Census Bureau
38 A New Business Model May Have To Emerge For most retailers, the days of teens rushing out and flipping their wardrobes every season may be over Customers may end up buying less products, but they may be willing to pay more for quality More of a model adopted in Europe years ago.
39 And U.S. Consumers Are Pessimistic Source: University of Michigan
40 But There Are New Players In The Game...
41 China vs.u.s. Textile Production Index (1997=100) US China
42 China s Monthly Retail Sales 13,000 in hundred of millions of yuan 9,750 6,500 3, Source: CNCotton.Com
43 In Conclusion Global shifts in textile production driving shifts in cotton purchasing patterns Requires close attention to quality, price and varieties In the long run, cotton export sales will play an increasingly important role not just in support of the traditional business but as a key component in support of rising domestic textile consumption in China and elsewhere
44 In Conclusion China s and India s growth will be offset by declining consumption in the developed world Further changes to the global textile business will be affected by changing demographics Age Buying power
45 In Conclusion China will only be a textile export giant for a fixed period of time perhaps 10 years, 15 years? In order to maintain market share, suppliers will be forced to evaluate their focus on quality versus quantity Choice of production Future viability at stake
46 In Conclusion Impact of government policy: How will governments choose to reactive to these changes? How will China and India as The Consuming Nations alter the global textile business?
47 Want to learn more? Olah, Inc. 30 E 23 St New York, NY U.S.A (p) (f) Website: olahinc.com Twitter: Rantoshak Blog: rantoshak.blogspot.com
Overview of the Global Textile Industry Bangladesh Cotton & Textile Convention 2007 Dhaka, Bangladesh Topics To Be Considered Global Trends The Trade/Sourcing Outlook Impact of China Market Requirements
Whoever thinks China is an emerging economy in the world is wrong: China is simply having their comeback. MADE IN CHINA Advice Report Shanti Rossa 25 May 2011 Whoever thinks China is an emerging economy
Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003 Presented: Friday, February 21, 2003 RETHINKING COTTON PROMOTION Allen A. Terhaar Executive Director, Cotton Council International Introductory Comments SLIDE 1: RETHINKING
Gathering Momentum Trends and Prospects for Fine Merino Wool Chris Wilcox Chairman, Market Intelligence Committee International Wool Textile Organisation Executive Director, National Council of Wool Selling
Wool Market in the Balance: Global Wool Prices, Supply and Demand Chris Wilcox Chairman, Market Intelligence Committee IWTO 2016 Congress, Sydney 4 April 2016 Events Affecting the Wool Industry since 84
Italy Eyewear Key Figures 2015 1 General information 2015 Population: 60.656.125 (-0,2% vs 2014) GDP per capita: 26.840 (+2% vs 2014) Population over-40: 55% of population Population over-65: 22% of population
GLOBAL TRENDS IN THE GARMENT SECTOR AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR BANGLADESH TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES AND INNOVATIONS IN THE WORLD BANGLADESH READYMADE GARMENT INDUSTRY, the 2 nd largest apparel exporter of the world:
INDIAN APPAREL MARKET OUTLOOK Market Size by Apparel Type, Gender and Region Trends and Forecast Till 2021 www.fibre2fashion.com 1 ABOUT US Fibre2fashion.com was established in 2000 and is owned and promoted
Overview of Taiwan Textile Industry 2013 2014.04 A. Status of Taiwan Textile Industry At the beginning stage, Taiwan textile industry imported raw materials for processing and exported most of the finished
Global Handbags Market Report ---------------------------------------------------- 2013 Executive Summary Premium handbags and accessories is one of the fastest growing segments in the overall luxury market.
US Denim Jeans Market Report ----------------------------------------- 2015 Executive Summary Denim has become a wardrobe staple for the comfort it offers and above all for being one of the best clothing
11 Review and Outlook With a steady economic recovery underway in the major wool-consuming countries of the European Union and the United States, the 2014/15 season saw a steady improvement over 2013/14,
Risks to the Mexican Textile Industry from trade liberalization effects of the end of the Multi-Fiber Agreement By Lenami Godinez For: Dr. Hira LAS450 April 8, 2005 Table of contents 1. Introduction 2.
The information provided in this section is derived from various public and private publications. This information has not been prepared or independently verified by the Company, the Vendors, the Directors,
The World Bids Farewell to the Multifiber Arrangement VOLUME 4 ISSUE 1 20 Stephen MacDonald, email@example.com Steven Raymer, Getty Images ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE/USDA Clothing is one of life s necessities,
Published on Market Research Reports Inc. (https://www.marketresearchreports.com) Home > China Premium Denim Jeans Market Research Report 2016 China Premium Denim Jeans Market Research Report 2016 Publication
Market Analysis Summary Jewelry manufacturing in the U.S. has seen sharp declines in recent years due to strong foreign competition. Many developing countries are in a good position to provide products
The Go-To Sourcing Destination: Vietnam Continues to Lure U.S. Firms SOURCING at MAGIC August 14, 2017 About the United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) Our Mission The United States Fashion
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report
1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. The US Apparel and Footwear Market Introduction 2. The US Apparel and Footwear Market Size by Personal Consumption Expenditure, 2005-2010 3. The US Apparel and Footwear Per Capita
About the Report "Booming Women Apparel Market in India" is the new report by that give a rational analysis on the Indian women apparel industry. This report has been made to help the client in analyzing
Mr. Ira Livingston Managing Partner: LIC LLC for Cotton Incorporated VI BRAZILIAN COTTON CONGRESS 15 August 2007 Presentation: Cotton in Brazil Brazilian Consumers Cotton Incorporated History Moving Forward
RAHUL MISHRA India s Textile Ecosystem o Has a major impact on Indian Economy o Is one of the largest sources of employment (employs over 45 million people) o Water and air pollution are major issues in
23 August 2 Shandong Ruyi as controlling shareholder of Trinity Group Ruyi Group Overview of Ruyi Group 4 Company Overview Founded in 1972, employees over 50,000 globally Ranks 1 st among 500 textile and
COTTON VERSUS SYNTHETICS THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE A. Terhaar Cotton Council International, Washington, D.C., USA ABSTRACT This article purports to further the argument presented by the author at the 2010
TOC 4 The Story 5 The Offices 6 Principals 7 Vertical Integration 8 Brand Portfolio 9 Explore Us THE STORY Signal Brands is a full service licensee that manages an exceptional portfolio of globally renowned
Denim Industry SECTOR UPDATE March, 2018 Global Denim Sector Global denim market is estimated to grow at about 6.4% annually from $57 billion in 2016 (US accounts for 24% of this size) to $75 billion in
P Open a fashion accessories shop! FabJob Guide to Become an Accessories Store Owner Pamela White Visit www.fabjob.com Contents About the Author...9 Acknowledgements...10 1. Introduction...11 1.1 The Fashion
T E X T I L E S & A P PA R E L S www.ibef.org The Indian Textile Industry Covers a gamut of activities From production of raw materials like cotton, jute, silk and wool to providing high value-added products
Investment Opportunities in the Design Industry in Taiwan I. Industry Definition and Scope The Cultural and Creative Industry Policy in Taiwan has delineated the domestic design service industry into three
TOC 4 The Story 5 The Offices 6 Principals 7 Vertical Integration 8 Brand Portfolio 9 Explore Us THE STORY Signal Brands is a full service licensee that manages an exceptional portfolio of globally renowned
Achieving 21st Century Terms of Trade for Apparel and Footwear in the TPP Steve Lamar Executive VP Vietnam TPP Stakeholders Briefing June 2011 The US Market US consumers spent $338.1 billion buying clothes
Interactive Workshop on Gender Sensitization in the Jute Sector-Bangladesh Organised by International Jute Study Group (IJSG), Dhaka 24 February, 2011 Gender Disparity or Gender Parity Is There Any Difference
From fiber to apparel: closing loops along the value chain Robert van de Kerkhof, Chief Commercial Officer Fashion Summit HK, 7 th September 2017 Fashion industry has a great growth potential Source: McKinsey
Growth and Changing Directions of Indian Textile Exports in the aftermath of the WTO Abstract A.M.Sheela Associate Professor D.Raja Jebasingh Asst. Professor PG & Research Department of Commerce, St.Josephs'
MAGIC Show, Feb. 16-18, 2016 Las Vegas, USA A Report by Sunanda Santappa, Asst. Director, CLE About the Show - MAGIC an acronym for the Men's Apparel Guild in California is a 83-year-old Trade Show that
China Home Textile Industry Report, 2012-2015 Apr. 2013 STUDY GOAL AND OBJECTIVES This report provides the industry executives with strategically significant competitor information, analysis, insight and
China Textile and Apparel Production and Sales Statistics, 2013-2014 Jul. 2014 STUDY GOAL AND OBJECTIVES This report provides the industry executives with strategically significant competitor information,
Sourcing Trends & Outlook for 2016 Julia Hughes President, USFIA Gary M. Barraco, Co-Chair USFIA Education and Training Committee Today s Speakers Do you have a question? During the webinar, all attendees
A STUDY ON GARMENT EXPORTERS PERCEPTION ON TECHNOLOGY UPGRADATION IN TIRUPUR CITY Dr P RADHAMANI Associate Professor in Commerce, Tiruppur Kumaran College for Women, Tiruppur. 1.1 INTRODUCTION In Indian
PLATINUM JEWELLERY BUSINESS REVIEW Q2 2017 Market Environment China s economy saw steady development in the first half of 2017, including GDP growth of 6.9% in both Q1 and Q2. Total retail sales of consumer
Investor Presentation June 2012 DISCLAIMER FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain information contained in this presentation, particularly information regarding future economic performance, finances, and expectations
Background on China Textile Safeguards National Cotton Council December 2005 General Background The safeguard provisions and mechanics are part of an agreement signed by China, the United States, and all
US Denim Jeans Market Report ----------------------------------------- 2014 Executive Summary The US apparel industry is large, mature, and highly fragmented. This industry has stretched the boundaries
Case Study Example: Footloose Footloose: Introduction Duraflex is a German footwear company with annual men s footwear sales of approximately 1.0 billion Euro( ). They have always relied on the boot market
August 14, 2013 Vietnam Garment & Textile sector Update: Unprecedented developments but the industry is still tied up in a knot Executive Summary Following our first report on the textile and garment sector
China Market Access National Standards for Textile and Apparel ul.com/crs With the acceleration of global economic integration and fast economic growth, China has quickly become a market amid global attention
Global Handbags Market ----------------------------------------------------- 2014 Executive Summary Handbags and accessories are among the fastest growing segments in the overall luxury goods industry.
Summit Highlights: Deep Interpretation of the Latest Government Policies and Masterplan of Textile and Apparel Industry in Myanmar An Overlook and Prospect of Today s Myanmar Textile and Apparel Industry
"A STUDY ON CUSTOMER PREFRENCES-AMONG BRANDED AND NON BRANDED JEWELLERY. Dr. Priyanka Gautam 1 Ms. Urmila Thakur 2 INDIAN JEWELLERY MARKET-METAMORPHOSIS INTRODUCTION Due to rapid progress in the retail
=========================================================== BONAMI BD. Global Fashion is the renowned garments Exporter, Manufacturer & Global sourcing company based in Bangladesh. CONTACT : Phone : +8801874-535340,Whats'app:+8801716-331122,E-mail:firstname.lastname@example.orgemail@example.com
May 2017 Sustainable Strategies & Solutions Textiles A Challenge For The Circular Economy Textiles are Made of Fibres Natural Fibres Fibre Blends Man-Made/ Synthetic Fibres Cradle-to-Cradle Cradle - to
INTERNATIONAL FORUM FOR COTTON PROMOTION 1629 K STREET NW, SUITE 702, WASHINGTON, DC 20006 USA Telephone (202) 463-6660 Fax (202) 463-6950 firstname.lastname@example.org www.cottonpromotion.org Report to: Membership and
Vietnam Saigon Textile & Garment Industry Expo 2017 Vietnam Saigon Garment & Accessories Expo 2017 5-8 April, 2017 Show Facts Date: 5-8 April, 2017 SaigonTex 2017 S H O W R E P O R T (First Draft on 19
0 CASE STUDY - ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES BUSINESS STRATEGY AND POLICY - MGMT3031 SEMESTER II 2012-2013 ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC 1 CASE STUDY - ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES
4-H Clothing and Textiles Advisory Board OVERVIEW The offers 4-H members, volunteer leaders, and county Extension agents an opportunity to help determine and expand the 4-H clothing program by recommending
THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF TEXTILE ORGANIZATIONS REPRESENTING THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF THE U.S. DOMESTIC TEXTILE INDUSTRY Mike Hubbard American Sheep Industry Association January 24, 2014 THE NATIONAL COUNCIL
Dear Shareholders, It is a great pleasure to see so many of you here today. I will talk about last year, but also tell you a little bit about our plans ahead. At H&M we always focus on the customer and
INDUSTRY CAPABILITY REPORT FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY Prepared by: Export Development Board (EDB), Sri Lanka April, 2017 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2 2. TYPES OF PLAYERS 2 3. KEY PRODUCTS AND VARIETIES 3 4. UNIQUE
Case study example Footloose Footloose Introduction Duraflex is a German footwear company with annual men s footwear sales of approximately 1.0 billion Euro( ). They have always relied on the boot market
Export Success and Industrial Linkages Export Success and Industrial Linkages The Case of Readymade Garments in South Asia Shahrukh Rafi Khan with Diva Dhar Mariam Navaid Manisha Pradhananga Farah Siddique
Characteristics of the Japanese Market and How to Penetrate into the J Market November 2010 JETRO HANOI Senior Advisor Hitoshi SAKAI 1 Vietnamese Items in Japan 2 Import Share of Specific Vietnamese Items
Dr. Su-Jeong Hwang Shin, Associate Professor Office: HS 201 C Email: su.hwang @ ttu.edu Website: www.myweb.ttu.edu/shwang Agricultural / chemical (raw material suppliers) Advertising Publications Merchandising
U.S. Census Bureau Carpet and Rugs - 2009 MA314Q(09) - 1 Issued June 2010 Address inquiries concerning these data to Consumer Goods Industries Branch, U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Manufacturing
Mexico back on track New York January 9, 2013 01. GDP real growth Source : SHCP y BCB México Brasil 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i ii iii iv i
ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT 1961-1998 by Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics prepared for Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development June 1999 Institute of Social and Economic Research University
CLUSTER REPORT 1/217 OUTLOOK ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN COTTON TEXTILE INDUSTRY To understand the current status of the textile and clothing industry, it is important to know about all the previous developments,
FE-PRI EAU Posted : 30 Apr, 2017 00:00:00 What drives footwear exports of Vietnam and Cambodia Mehrin Karim This article is a follow up to the one by Saeba Ruslana of Policy Research Institute (PRI) entitled
Global Fast Fashion Market with Focus on The United States: Size, Trends & Forecast (2016-2020) June 2016 Global Fast Fashion Market with Focus on The United States Report Scope of the Report The report
1 Textiles Monitor 1 Trend 1 Tracker NOLVs: NOLVs were mixed in the third quarter due to a variety of offsetting factors. Gross margins were positively impacted by lower input costs, while numerous company-specific
Indian Polyester 2016 Celebrating 75 years of Polyester Prashant Agarwal Jt. MD and Co Founder - Wazir Advisors 10 th August 2016 Presentation Flow 1 Global Trade 2 Changing Pattern of Fibre Consumption
Jute in South Asia A K M Rezaur Rahman* 1. Introduction 1.1 Jute is a gift of Nature, a fibre derived from a plant that we, in South Asia, fondly call the golden fibre on account of its colour and that
Trade Development Authority Government of Pakistan **** No. TDAP-PA/JA/QTEC/2012 Karachi, October 5, 2012 Secretary General, Pakistan Hosiery Manufactures and Exporters Association (PHMA), Karachi Subject:
Published on Market Research Reports Inc. (https://www.marketresearchreports.com) Home > Global Mosquito Repellent Bracelet Market Research Report 2016 Global Mosquito Repellent Bracelet Market Research
Subject : Apparel Merchandising Unit 1 Introduction to apparel merchandising Quadrant 1 e-text Learning Objectives The learning objectives of this unit are to: Describe the challenges in apparel business.
2015 Top Markets Report Technical Textiles and Apparel A Market Assessment Tool for U.S. Exporters July 2015 U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Industry & Analysis (I&A) Industry
Session 10 Sourcing and Supplier Management Practices 1 Outline Introduction: HK Apparel Industry Environment of HK s Apparel Industry Merchandising Management Sourcing Fashion Merchandising organisations
BANGLADESH Government takes several jute mills back from private firms The Bangladesh government has taken eight jute and textile mills back from the private sector as they violated major conditions that
THE EMPTY SHOP Jay Chiat Awards 2014 WELCOME TO THE EMPTY SHOP This case is filled with paradigm shifts, subversions and contradictions. The first of them is the challenge itself: a winter clothes donation
US Back-to-School 2017, Part 4: More Retailers Look to Become the Shopping Destination for School Uniforms 1) Though school uniforms still constitute just a small piece of the nearly $29.5 billion US backto-school
Battle of the Titans: Inditex Versus H&M More Differences than Similarities? Deborah Weinswig Managing Director, FGRT email@example.com US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
x 2 May, 2007 Managing Director Rolf Eriksen s address at H&M s AGM 2007 Dear shareholders, It is with great pleasure I am standing here in front of you today. 2006 was the best year ever in H&M s history.