How Will The Trade Wars Impact Your Global (And Local) Sourcing Strategies

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1 How Will The Trade Wars Impact Your Global (And Local) Sourcing Strategies Julia K. Hughes, President United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) February 5, 2019

2 fashion made possible by global trade

3 Our Mission The United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) is dedicated to the removal of barriers that impede the free movement of textile and apparel products to the United States and international markets. Our Work for the Industry Communication Education Advocacy

4 USFIA Members & Affiliates include Fashion brands, retailers, importers, and wholesalers doing business globally Service providers, including customs brokers, freight forwarders, law firms, logistics providers, steamship lines, and testing and certification companies Manufacturers and suppliers of finished products and inputs Supplier associations, business councils, promotional groups and agencies, and academic institutions

5 In two years, President Trump has Withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Renegotiated U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement Renegotiated NAFTA (now called USMCA) Imposed new penalty tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum Imposed new penalty tariffs on imports from China Targets forced technology transfers, unfair licensing requirements, and IPR violations

6 What do fashion brands and retailers think? USFIA s 2018 Fashion Industry Benchmarking Study says

7 Executives Top Business Concerns, Ranked 1. Protectionist trade policy agenda in the United States 2. Market competition in the United States from e- commerce 3. Increasing production or sourcing cost 4. Market competition in the United States from brickand-mortar stores or conventional peer competitors 5. Investing in and updating technology 6. Managing supply chain risks 7. Finding a new sourcing base other than China

8 Trade protectionism is the #1 concern. Ranked #1 for the second year in a row Ranked #8 to #11 in the first three years of the study between More than 60 percent of executives rank among their top five business challenges More than 1/3 of executives rank #1 or #2

9

10 Impact of the Trade War Status Today and What Brands and Retailers Can Do

11 Section 301 Today Deadline of March 2 nd for agreement on the issues forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft. Also deadline for a commitment by China to buy more products made in the United States Fear that no agreement not only means higher duties on List 3 but also duties on all imports from China

12 US Section 301 tariff measures on Chinese products PwC "Next Steps on China Tariffs

13 What Products Are Already Affected? Boxes, for packing of goods, of plastic ( ) Bags, for packing of goods, of plastic ( ) Plastic rainwear valued under $10 ( ) Patent leather ( ) Leather Handbags ( )

14 What Products Are Already Affected? Leather Apparel ( ) Leather Gloves ( ) Wool Yarn ( ) Cotton (5201) Hats and headgear (6504)

15 Apparel Sourcing Today

16 Sourcing Locations in 2018 Respondents report sourcing from 51 countries or regions in 2018, the same as in out of the top 10 sourcing destinations are based in Asia #1 China (100%), covered from 91% in 2017 #2 Vietnam (96%), a new record high #3 Indonesia (79%) #4 India (75%) #5 Bangladesh (75%) #9 Mexico (50%) #10 USA (46%) Almost all leading sourcing destinations in Asia have a higher utilization rate in 2018 Sourcing from the Western-Hemisphere is growing in popularity, including NAFTA and CAFTA-DR

17 Sourcing Trends for 2018 The first ten months of 2018 were strong for all imports: Apparel 3.1% Fabric 8.1% Made-Ups 6.8% Yarn 12.9%

18 2018 Apparel Suppliers January October 2018 Rank Country Million SME % Share % Growth Million $ % Share % Growth 1 China 9, Vietnam Bangladesh Indonesia India Cambodia Honduras Mexico

19 Sourcing Trends for 2018 Fastest Growing Apparel Suppliers in 2018 Ranks Ethiopia up 92% 40 Myanmar up 38% 34 Madagascar up 21% 32 Egypt up 19% 19 Kenya up 13% 25 Haiti up 13% 17

20 How Execs Rate Sourcing Options Strength Average Weakness Most balanced: Vietnam China Mexico CAFTA-DR

21 Let s Hear from an Industry Insider Jim Schwartz President & CEO MGF Sourcing

22 James Schwartz President & CEO MGF Sourcing James Schwartz, a 40-year veteran of the apparel industry, is the president and CEO of MGF Sourcing, headquartered in Columbus, OH. MGF Sourcing is one of the largest global supply chain service organizations of men s and women apparel in the United States. The company provides more than $1.0 billion worth of products for retailers like Express, Lane Bryant, Chico s FAS, Talbots, J Crew, Abercrombie & Fitch, and other nationally known brands. Prior to joining MGF Sourcing, Mr. Schwartz served for 28 years in a variety of positions at Mast Industries, a division of Lbrands, culminating in his role as brand president for Mast Global Fashions. In 2011, Lbrands spun Mast Global Fashions off to Sycamore Partners and created MGF Sourcing. Prior to his work at Mast, Mr. Schwartz was an executive with Federated Department Stores and Bradlees department store of Braintree, MA.

23 Talking about Sourcing Strategies and Diversification in 2019

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