Profile of the Russian Fashion Retail Market of today and tomorrow

Transcription

1 Profile of the Russian Fashion Retail Market of today and tomorrow Reinhard E. Döpfer Senior Advisor and Liaison Officer of SCHNEIDER GROUP for the European Fashion Industry Zeist, April 20, 2017

2 Import dynamics in USD from 2014 until 2016, H About -40% in average for 3 years. 0% 2014/ / /2015-5% - 10% -8% - 8% - 18% - 35% -32% - 39% Обувь Одежда Ткани Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service 2

3 Apparel, footwear, fabrics retail price dynamics, relative to 1H of the previous year, % 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 4.7% 5.5% 5.1% 4.8% 6.4% Ткани Одежда и белье Обувь Over the whole period of decline since 15.6% November 2014 consumer prices grew 12.6% by 21.5%, 12.5% coinciding with the 9.7% index for non-food 10.4% products 5.3% 4.7% 4.7% 9.6% Food prices increase during this period reached 24.1%, service prices growth 17.1%. 0.0% 1H H H H H 2016 Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service 3

4 Negative import dynamics for Russia Significant finished goods and raw materials imports decline 39% apparel 41% shoes 43% fabrics Apparel import dynamics, US dollars 0.0% -5.0% -2.4% -5.3% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0% -39.2% -45.0% 2013/ / /2014 Shoe import dynamics, US dollars 20.0% 10.0% 7.9% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -19.4% -30.0% -40.0% -41.1% -50.0% 2013/ / /2014 Fabric import dynamics, US dollars 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0% -45.0% -50.0% -19.6% -2.5% -43.3% 2013/ / /2014 4

5 Footwear & Apparel Exports from EU-28, Germany, Italy, UK to Russia in 1000 Footwear % 16/ % 16/15 EU Germany Italy United Kingdom Apparel % 16/ % 16/15 EU Germany Italy United Kingdom

6 Fashion market volume & dynamics p in billion Rubles Volume (bln. rub) Dynamics, % (rub) 2017FP Dynamics, % (rub) 2017FO % 9.0% % 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% % 4.0% 2.0% % 2.0% % % -4.0% % % -8.0% % F Source: FCG estimation Fashion market volume (apparel, footwear, accessories) in 2016: 2295 billion rubles ($34.3 billion). Dynamics of the market in 2016: 1% by 2015 in rubles (10.2% in $). Optimistic forecast of the market growth (2017FO) - up to 9% in rubles (11.5% in dollars) can be realized in case of macroeconomic and political situation improvement and further strengthening of ruble. Pessimistic forecast (2017FP) is up to 5% in rubles (4.8% in dollars) in case of slow pace of economic development and stabilization of oil prices. 6

7 Fashion market volume and dynamics p in billion USD Volume (bln. $) Dynamics, % ($) 2017FP Dynamics, % ($) 2017FO % 11.5% % 10.0% % 1.2% 0.0% % % -10.0% % % % % % FP Source: FCG estimation Average nominal exchange rate of US dollar and euro to ruble for the period from the beginning of the year (Source: cbr.ru) US Dollar 1H 2H ,00 31, ,97 37, ,20 60, ,10 66,90 EURO 1H 2H ,74 42, ,96 50, ,99 67, ,25 75,11 7

8 Market structure by fashion segments Product categories shares generally coincide with the ones of developed markets of Europe and the US, and will remain unchanged in the long term period. Fashion market structure (apparel, footwear, accessories) 2016, % 11.6% apparel 27.0% 61.4% footwear accessories Retail market structure apparel, footwear and accessories segments shares remains practically unchanged over the past 5 years. 8

9 TOP 12 apparel retail players market shares Bosco di Ciliegi 6% SK Trade LLC 5% Moneks Trading LLC 5% Factor LLC 5% LPP S. A. 5% Kaltsru LLC 4% Inditex group of companies 21% Ostin LLC 11% Mercury Group 7% H&M 8% Kari LLC 7% Centrobuv 8% Gloria Jeans CJSC 8% Source: FCG estimation based on Retailer.ru rating 9

10 Market volume by age and gender Market volume by age-gender segments, F, billion rubles Market shares by age-gender segments, 2016F, % Women Men Children % % 55% Women Men Children

11 LOWER (economy/ budget) MIDDLE HIGH Fashion retail price point segmentation MARKET SEGMENTS CORE PRICE EXAMPLES OF BRANDS LUXE LUXE DESIGNER PRET-A-PORTE from RUB PRADA, CHANEL, CHRISTIAN DIOR, BALMAIN, CAROLINA HERRERA PREMIUM DESIGNERS PRET-A-PORTE + BRIDGE BRANDS RUB ESСADA, MAXX MARA, HUGO BOSS BASLER, MARCCAIN, LUISA CERANO MIDDLE UP BETTER RUB MIDDLE GOOD 3500 RUB LOWER MODERATE 1200 RUB KAREN MILLEN, PENNY BLACK, BETTY BARСLAY, GERRY WEBER, PATRIZIA PEPE BENETTON, RIVER ISLAND, ZARA, TOPSHOP, MEXX, GAP, MANGO, CONCEPT CLUB, RESERVED, BAON H&M, SAVAGE, NEW YORKER, GLORIA JEANS, OODJI FAMILIA, O STIN, SELA ECONOMY BUDGET till 700 RUB STOCK CENTER, AUCHAN Source: FCG estimation based on Retailer.ru rating 11

12 Tendencies of Russian and international clothing retail chains development Russian players Global players Source: FCG estimation based on Retailer.ru rating 12

13 UK apparel exports to Russia by best selling categories, 2016 vs MEN S & BOYS OUTERWEAR, WOVEN & KNITTED MEN S TROUSERS 3,441 mn. (- 21%) WOVEN SHIRTS, BUSINESS + CASUAL 1,955 mn. (- 27%) COATS + OUTDOOR JACKETS MEN S SINGLE JACKETS 1,293 mn. (- 14%) 1,096 mn. (- 26%) WOMEN S & GIRLS OUTERWEAR, WOVEN & KNITTED DRESSES 6,502 mn. (- 38%) TROUSERS 5,074 mn. (- 36%) BLOUSES 4,522 mn. (- 27%) SWEATERS, CARDIGANS, TWIN-SETS COATS + OUTDOOR JACKETS DENIM TROUSERS 2,390 mn. (43 %) 2,244 mn. (52%) 2,052 mn. (- 17%) INTIMATE APPAREL FOR MEN & WOMEN MEN S + BOYS UNDERWEAR 1,582 mn. (- 17%) FEMALE UNDERWEAR 6,188 (- 16%) 0 mn. 4,000 mn. 8,000 mn. Source: European Fashion + Textile Export Council (EFTEC),

14 Reinhard E. Döpfer Senior Advisor and Liaison Officer of SCHNEIDER GROUP for the European Fashion Industry The exclusive right to the content of this presentation including the rights of translation, reproduction, transmittal, distribution and usage of the presentation and parts of it, in any way, as well as the rights to the company s logo and name SCHNEIDER GROUP, in existing and future publications in printed or electronic form, and the ability to confer rights to a third party belong to SCHNEIDER GROUP. The reproduction, alteration, transmittal or any distribution or usage of this presentation or parts of it, as well as of the company s logo or name SCHNEIDER GROUP in any way, need the written permission of SCHNEIDER GROUP in advance and shall be accompanied with the link to the SCHNEIDER GROUP website and reference to the copyright permission. SCHNEIDER GROUP 14

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