Perspectives on Export Markets Changes and Outlook

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1 GRDC Update - Perth Perth, W. Australia February 27, 218 Perspectives on Export Markets Changes and Outlook Vince Peterson President

2 The 197 s Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

3 The 197 s Ames, Iowa Skunk Creek RFC

4 Jon USA Special Operations Forces Ranger Sam Australian Special Operations Forces Commando The Football team

5 US Wheat Production

6 1989/ / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / / /218 US Wheat Production Average Production 59.5 MMT 1 MT 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

7 1 MT 1 MT US Wheat Exports 4, 35, 3, Average Exports 29 MMT 25, 2, 15,

8 Distribution of US Wheat Exports in Indian Sub. Cont. 8% China 13% E & SE Asia 25% Latin Am. 14% Europe 6% Mid-East & N. Africa 3% Sub S. Africa 5%

9 Distribution of US Wheat Exports in Asia 12. MMT 43% Europe / Mid East / Africa 4. MMT 14% Latin America 12. MMT 43%

10 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 1, 9, 8, China Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 7 MMT! 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

11 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 1, 9, 8, China Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 7 MMT! 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

12 1 MT Indian Subcontinent: Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 4 MMT! 21: USW Closes India Office Imports from U.S. Bangladesh Imports from U.S. Pakistan Imports from U.S. India Imports from U.S. Sri Lanka

13 1 MT Indian Subcontinent: Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 4 MMT! 21: USW Closes India Office Imports from U.S. Bangladesh Imports from U.S. Pakistan Imports from U.S. India Imports from U.S. Sri Lanka

14

15 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 6, 5, Egypt: Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 5 MMT! 217: USW Closes Cairo Office 4, 3, 2, 1,

16 Even those among the best lose some

17 MMT 12. Australia Wheat Exports Declining Markets: Middle East, East & North Africa Sales loss: 6 MMT! Middle East, East & North Africa

18 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, China Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 7 MMT! 21: China Agrees to eventual 9.6 MMT TRQ Sales gain: Average: < 1 MMT 3, 2, 1,

19 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, China Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 7 MMT! 21: China Agrees to eventual 9.6 MMT TRQ Sales gain: Average: < 1 MMT 3, 2, 1,

20 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 Select S. Asia Wheat Imports from U.S. 1 MT 6 5 Sales gain: 4 MMT! Imports from U.S. Indonesia Imports from U.S. Taiwan Imports from U.S. Vietnam Imports from U.S. Philippines Imports from U.S. Thailand

21 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 Select S. Asia Wheat Imports from U.S. 1 MT 6 5 Sales gain: 4 MMT! Imports from U.S. Indonesia Imports from U.S. Taiwan Imports from U.S. Vietnam Imports from U.S. Philippines Imports from U.S. Thailand

22 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 14 Latin America Imports from US Sales loss 4 MMT! Sales gain: 6 MMT! 6 4 2

23 198/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / /217 1 MT 14 Latin America Imports from US Sales loss 4 MMT! Sales gain: 6 MMT! 6 4 2

24 Winning is much more fun

25 MMT Australia Wheat Exports Growth Markets Sales gain: 8 MMT! China South Asia Subsaharan Africa

26 Rabobank sees no end to wheat export woes - Australian Financial Review 14-Feb-218 7:7 AM Rabobank has warned the Australian wheat industry there is no end in sight to erosion in market share in South-East Asia after a plunge in exports to start the year. Analysis by Rabobank shows Australia's market share in South-East Asia fell from 6 per cent to 4 per cent in the five years to with more pain to come.

27 1 MT 5, 45, 4, 35, South and Southeast Asia Wheat Imports Imports grow: 2 MMT! 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Wheat TY Imports South Asia Wheat TY Imports Southeast Asia

28 World Trade 9 MMT 198

29 World Trade 9 MMT 182 MMT

30 World Trade 9 MMT 182 MMT MMT (est) 25

31 All Asia Population All Asia Wheat Consumption +93 M +6 MMT All Asia Wheat Imports +11 MMT *Assumes static India and China Wheat S&D s

32 1 MT Wheat Harvested Area Australia, Canada & USA 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Wheat Area Harvested Australia Wheat Area Harvested United States Wheat Area Harvested Canada

33 1 MT 14, Wheat Production Australia, Canada & USA 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Wheat Production Australia Wheat Production United States Wheat Production Canada

34 But what about RUSSIA???

35 9, 8, Russia Wheat Production and Yield 1 MT MT/HA , 6, 5, , 3, 2, 1, Wheat Production Russia Wheat Yield Russia

36 1 MT Ukraine Major Crops Harvested Area Other crops: + 11 MHA Increase 1 8 Wheat: +/- MHA Increase Corn Oilseeds Wheat Linear (Wheat)

37 1 MT 3, Russia Major Crops Harvested Area Wheat: + 3. MHA Increase 25, 2, 15, Other crops: MHA Increase 1, 5, Corn Area Harvested Oilseeds Wheat Linear (Wheat)

38 Russia Export Markets Middle East & Africa 82% of Russian Exports

39 Russia Export Markets Middle East and Africa +1.3 Billion more people by 25 Consuming 62 MMT more wheat Importing 5 MMT more wheat

40 $12/MT US Gulf Japan Panamax rates $7/MT $7/MT $4/MT $45/MT $23/MT

41 Thank you for the opportunity to share some import ideas together.

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