ITALIAN WOMEN S FASHION IN

Transcription

1 ITALIAN WOMEN S FASHION IN Notes by Centro Studi of The preliminary balance sheet for 2016 For the third consecutive year, the Italian women s fashion industry (understood as inclusive of fabric outerwear, knitwear, shirts, and leather apparel) enjoyed a positive dynamic attributable, in primis, to performance abroad. According to preliminary estimates processed by SMI, Italian women s fashion turnover should close up by +2.3 and thus cross the 13 billion euro threshold. According to the preliminary balance sheet, Italian women s fashion should close the year 2016 with an estimated growth rate of The foreign markets remained favorable throughout the year and boosted foreign sales to a 61,3 share of sector turnover. On the other hand, domestic consumption was still down overall although some products/channels stood out. Table 1 The Italian Women s Fashion Industry ( *) (Millions euro at current value) * Sales Var. 0,0-1,0 2,5 2,5 2,3 Value of production Var. 2,6-0,4-1,4-0,5 1,9 Exports Var. 2,3 2,9 4,7 5,0 3,9 Imports Var. -7,5-3,0 9,1 7,3 0,3 Trade Balance End Consumption (*) Var. -5,1-7,1-3,7-2,3-2,7 Structural Indicators () Exports/Sales 54,3 55,6 57,7 59,0 60,4 61,3 Imports/Consumption at prod. 51,8 50,5 52,7 59,7 65,5 67,5 Source: ISTAT, Sita Ricerca, and survey data processed by SMI. (*) - Estimates (**) - Inventories and out-of-family consumption included. February

2 Like in the preceding two-year period, the best performer among the sub-sectors considered here was women s shirts, which toted up increases not only on the foreign markets but at home as well. Knitwear and although to a lesser degree fabric outerwear are also expected to close 2016 with plus signs. Offsetting these results, leather apparel which has been suffering everywhere, especially abroad saw only a worsening of the downtrend that began in Even in light of a stabilization in imports from overseas (in truth, imports were in the negative numbers for a large part of 2016), the overall value of production in Italy, taking into account the production dynamics in the single sub-sectors and net revenues deriving from marketing of imported products, is estimated to have increased by about As regards the Italian market in 2016, Sita Ricerca data processed by SMI would seem to indicate that the drop-off rate for the domestic women s fashion sell-out underwent a slight worsening with respect to After a Spring/Summer season result showing a -3.3 decrease, the early data for the fall season suggest that the overall drop in 2016 will weigh in at -2.7 on an annual basis. A look at the foreign markets shows, as mentioned above, that the positive trend in exports of Italian women s fashion continued for the third year running. Foreign sales data for the twelvemonth period are expected to show a +3.9 growth rate and a total in excess of 8 billion euro. Contrariwise, forecasts for women s fashion imports, marked by negative dynamics for the greater part of 2016 but thanks to the results obtained at the end of the year, are for stabilization at 2015 levels; that is, at 4.3 billion euro (+0.3). Given the picture of trade flows into and out of Italy drawn above, the sector trade surplus should gain somewhat and close at 3.7 billion euro. Foreign trade in 2016 According to currently-available ISTAT data (relative to the period from January through November 2016), foreign exchanges of women s fashion saw exports still enjoying a favorable trend, which will result in a +3.2 upswing; imports instead were strongly negative for almost the entire year but thanks to the positive datum for November should close the year with a drop of only In the period taken under consideration, sales abroad came close to 7.7 billion euro and imports totaled 4.5 billion ca. The value of Italian production in 2016 was climbing (+1.9). Domestic sell-out is expected to drop by - The 2.7. domestic sellout is expected to suffer a -2.7 loss for the year. Estimated growth for exports in 2016 is +3.9, while imports should stabilize. For 2016, growth in exports is estimated at +3.9; imports, instead, are expected to stabilize. L attivo commerciale dovrebbe portarsi sui 3,7 miliardi The sector trade surplus should thus amount to 3.7 billion euro. Nel periodo gennaionovembre 2016 l export di moda donna archivia una crescita del +3,2, mentre l import frena al -0,4 From January through November 2016, Italian women s fashion exports grew by +3.2 and the increase in imports slowed to February

3 Analysis of performance by geographic macro-areas shows that Italian exports to both our EU trade partners and to the EU-area countries grew at analogous rhythms: +3.2 in both cases. In the case of imports, goods provisioned from extra-european sources (which accounted for 53.6 of the total) slowed by -6.3, while those incoming from intra-ue sources showed a quite lively increase of It is worthwhile going beyond the average data by macro area to analysis of the singlecountry results, since they provide an informative breakdown of the trends in the two macro market areas. On the EU front, France, Made-in-Italy women s fashion s top customer market with an 11.5 share, showed a growth dynamic of +4.4; the evolution in Germany s consumption, instead, resulted in a +5.0 growth rate. The upward trend also continued for the United Kingdom, which closed the year with a +4.6 variation in consumption of Italian women s fashion. The growth rate for Spain, instead, after its double-digit performance in 2015, decelerated significantly but nevertheless recorded a convincing Exports to both EU and extra-eu markets grew by Trends on all the major EU customer markets were favorable. Table 2 Italian Women s Fashion (*): Country-by-Country Analysis of Foreign Trade (January-November 2016) 1) Imports 2) Exports Country of Origin Millions Euro Var. Share TOTAL ,4 100,0 of which: Intra EU ,4 46,4 Extra EU ,3 53,6 Top 15 Supplier Countries China ,2 22,5 France 472 6,3 10,5 Bangladesh 327-1,4 7,3 Romania 318 9,9 7,1 Germany 234 9,1 5,2 Belgium 218 6,4 4,8 Spain 191 8,7 4,2 Turkey 174-2,9 3,9 Tunisia 152-7,6 3,4 India 128-6,2 2,8 United Kingdom 113 3,8 2,5 Bulgaria 110 1,3 2,4 Netherlands 107 6,9 2,4 Croatia 86 11,0 1,9 Cambodia 86-8,4 1,9 Country of destination Millions Euro Var. Share TOTAL ,2 100,0 of which: Intra EU ,2 52,0 Extra EU ,2 48,0 Top 15 Customer Countries France 883 4,4 11,5 Germany 815 5,0 10,6 U.S ,2 8,1 Hong Kong 579 6,0 7,5 United Kingdom 510 4,6 6,6 Switzerland 487 6,0 6,3 Russia 420 0,6 5,5 Spain 415 5,2 5,4 Japan 342 5,1 4,5 China 263 8,7 3,4 Belgium 192-3,3 2,5 Austria 177 3,8 2,3 Netherlands ,3 2,2 South Korea 142 5,4 1,8 Poland ,2 1,6 Source: ISTAT data processed by SMI. (*) - Differently from Table 1, these tables include Junior products data. February

4 With reference to the extra-european markets, both the United States and Hong Kong which recorded growth rates in excess of 20 in 2015 slowed considerably and closed with increases of -1.2 and +6.0, respectively. But a look at the overall Textile-Fashion data, which shows a -5.9 loss in U.S. sales, suggests that Italian women s fashion fared quite well. Exports to Russia, which in 2015 plummeted by -32.6, recovered progressively over the course of the year and showed a timid but important positive growth datum for the first eleven months of 2016: Japan inverted its 2015 trend and consolidated its growth as a customer market, accelerating by +5.1 Exports to China, instead, increased substantially, by +8.7; South Korea also increased its absorbance capacity, by Turning to analysis of Italy s major supplier markets, China, which returned to a growth curve over the course of , changed pace again: in 2016, imports from this Asian power slowed by But despite this, China still accounted for the dragon s share of total sector imports, or 22.5 and a total topping one billion euro. Bangladesh followed suit, failing to maintain anything like its close-to +30 increase in 2015 and instead showing a slight decrement of -1.4 in the period under examination. The downturns by China and Bangladesh were, however, counterbalanced by upturns in imports from Belgium (+6.4) and the Netherlands (+6.9), traditional ports of entry for extra-eu goods. Running down the ranking of Italy s major suppliers, we note positive dynamics not only for France (+6.3) but also for Romania (+9.9), Germany (+9.1), and Spain (+8.7). Sales to the U.S. were down by -1.2; increases in sales on the Hong Kong market decelerated from last year s highs to +6. On the imports front, China which absorbs 22.5 of all Italian women s fashion sold abroad, slowed by Figure 1 Women s Fashion(*): Analysis of Italian Foreign Trade by Product Line (January-November 2016) 1) Imports 2) Exports ( tendential variation) ( tendential variation) 10,0 10,0 5,0 5,0 0,0 0,0-5,0-5,0-10,0-10,0-15,0 Fabric Outerwear Knitwear Shirts Leather Apparel Total -15,0 Fabric Outerwear Knitwear Shirts Leather Apparel Total Source: ISTAT data processed by SMI. (*) - Differently from Table 1, these graphs include Junior products data. February

5 If we disaggregate the overall datum by product line (see Fig. 1), we see that, in the first eleven months of 2016, foreign sales in the principal goods categories we monitored were characterized by positive dynamics ranging from +8.1 for women s shirts to +2.6 for women s fabric outerwear, with knitwear almost squarely in the middle with On the other hand, exports of leather apparel fell off for the second year in a row: this time, by In the case of imports, we saw a +7.4 increase in incoming women s shirts and a lesser, though still positive, +0.3 result for fabric outerwear. Imports of all the other product lines were instead down; knitwear lost -2.3, analogously to leather apparel (-2.4). Foreign sales increased across the board, extending to all the goods categories reviewed here exception made for leather apparel. Consumption and distribution on the Italian market The final Fall/Winter collection sell-out data reported here refer to the season. Despite the fact that the domestic market was decidedly not brilliant, it must be stressed that in Fall/Winter we again saw the shadow of renewed interest by consumers that appeared in , after years of one substantial drop after another: in short, expenditure for Textile-Fashion products held its own. If, on the one hand, we cannot speak of a true recovery in demand, on the other there seems to be a trend toward stabilization of the sell-out levels in the wake of the far-reaching restructuring that affected this market in the recent past. As we had occasion to remark at the last edition of Pitti Uomo, the Sita Ricerca surveys conducted for SMI tell us that F/W recorded a sharp slowdown in the rate of fall, to -0.9 at current value, for Textile-Fashion products as a whole, and to -1.9 in terms of constant expenditure. Within this scenario, women s fashion performed at about the sector average: current expenditure was down by As shown in Fig. 2.1, women s fashion consumption was driven by leather apparel, which enjoyed a improvement with respect to the previous F/W season, and by shirts, with a +7.2 increase. The knitwear sell-out was down somewhat, closing the year with a -0.7 loss. Fabric outerwear did not fare well, with a -2.4 loss; although the negative trend continued, this sub-sector remained preponderant, accounting for 56.7 of the overall sell-out, in value; it was followed by knitwear, with a 35.2 share. On the retail front, we once again saw confirmation of the dichotomous trends that have been characterizing the single distribution formats. Of especial note are the chain stores and e- commerce, on one side of the scale, and independent retailing on the other. These trends are clear reflections of changes in the consumption styles of Italian women s fashion consumers. In F/W ,the women s fashion sellout in Italy slowed by only buoyed up by leather apparel (+18.5) and shirts (+7.2). February

6 Figure 2 Women s Fashion: Consumption and Distribution on the Italian Market (Season: Fall/Winter ) Fig. 2.1 Sell-out Trends: Fig. 2.2 Sell-out Structure: Product-by-Product Analysis Product-by-Product Analysis ( tendential variation in consumption, ( of overall consumption, in value) in value, by product) 5 3 Total Leather Apparel Shirts Knitwear Fabric Outerwear Fabric Outerwear Shirts Knitwear Leather Apparel Fig. 2.3 Sell-out Trends: Fig. 2.4 The Distribution Structure: Analysis by Distribution Channels Analysis by Distribution Channels ( tendential variation in consumption, ( of overall consumption, in value) in value, by channel) Total 25 5 Other Channels Websites /Online Shops Outlets / Stock Houses 13 Licensed Street Vendors LSD 46 Chain Stores / Franchises Independent Retail Independent Retail LSD Outlets / Stock Houses Other Channels Chain Stores / Franchises Licensed Street Vendors Websites /Online Shops Source: Sita Ricerca data processed by SMI. (*) - Differently from Table 1, this data refers to Italian family expenditure, not including inventories and out-of-family consumption. In the period in question, the chain stores (the top-performing channel with a 45.7 share of the market, in value) recorded a +4.3 increase. The variation for online sales was, instead, (decidedly superior to the recorded by men s fashion in the same period); this channel s market share thus increased to 5.1 (as compared to a Textile-Fashion season average of 4.4). On the retail front, F/W saw growth for the chain stores and e- commerce, which together account for more than half the Italian market. The licensed street vendors were also in the positive sector, with growth of +2.7, as was the composite other channels grouping, which recorded a mini-boom. February

7 All the other distribution channels, instead, lost ground. Independent retailing, which in 2016 handled only a 24.3 share of the market (down by almost two percentage points with respect to the preceding F/W season), once again showed rather accentuated losses of LSD slipped by -6.5, similarly to the last F/W season, and the share of the total sell-out handled by the outlets contracted by more than -30. Despite the fact that the political-economic context is still influenced by multiple uncertainties, it is to be hoped that, overall, the trends for women s fashion will remain favorable in 2017, although growth rhythms are expected to be moderate. Milan, 25 February Publication by Tessile & Moda Service soc. Unipersonale This publication (hereinafter document ) is an exclusive original work by SMI - Sistema Moda Italia (Federation of Italian Textile and Fashion Enterprises, member of Confindustria [Italian Manufacturers Association]) for Tessile & Moda Service soc. Unipersonale. SMI - Sistema Moda Italia carries on numerous activities that target safeguarding and promoting the interests of textile-fashion sector companies. This document is designed for distribution by electronic and ordinary mail and may not be re-distributed, reproduced, published, or altered in whole or in part by persons not expressly authorized to do so. All authors right reserved. The scope of this document is purely informative and does not represent either an offer or an inducement to any transaction. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained in this document were taken or derived from sources held to be reliable by SMI - Sistema Moda Italia but which do not constitute any form of guarantee, either implicit or explicit. For this reason, SMI- Sistema Moda Italia and Tessile & Moda Service soc. Unipersonale assume no responsibility for the same. February