9/1/2016. ECON 302, Introduction 1 INTRODUCTION ECON 302

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1 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 1 INTRODUCTION ECON 302

2 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 2 Plan 1. Areas of Macroeconomics. 2. Important questions in macroeconomics. 3. Inspecting macroeconomic time series data logarithmic scale.

3 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 3 Micro vs. Macro Microeconomics - the study of individual behavior of consumers and firms. Macroeconomics the study of aggregate behavior of consumers and firms.

4 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 4 Examples of Questions Addressed Micro What affects the price of individual good? What causes changes in output of particular firm or industry? Macro What affects the aggregate price level? What causes changes in the aggregate output level?

5 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 5 Areas of Macroeconomics Macro economics Business cycles Growth Real business cycles Monetary economics International macro economics

6 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 6 Real GDP Per Capita Chained 2009 Dollars Real gross domestic product per capita Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED

7 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 7 Real GDP Per Capita Chained 2009 Dollars Real gross domestic product per capita Growth trend based on pre-recession Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis/FRED

8 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 8 Questions What causes growth in output? What causes business cycles? Can government policies affect growth? Business Cycles? Can government policies smooth out the business cycles? Why the recovery from the last recession is slow and incomplete (in Q2-2016, we are 20.7% below the prerecession trend)? Who cares?

9 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 9 Logarithmic scale Main point if you want to examine the growth trend of any time series, plot the natural logarithm (ln( ) ) of the data, instead of the original data. For more details, see the notes on Rates of Change.

10 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 10 Real GNP per capita (USA) Year

11 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 11 4 ln(real GNP per capita) Year

12 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 12 4 ln(real GNP per capita) 3.5 Trend Year

13 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction Deviations from trend Year

14 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 14 What about other countries?

15 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction Real GDP per capita Year ARG CHN KOR TCD USA

16 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction ln(real GDP per capita) Year ARG CHN KOR TCD USA

17 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 17 Questions Why are some countries so rich while others are so poor? Why some countries grow fast, while other grow slow or not at all?

18 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 18 The U.S. Unemployment Rate Jul 2016: 4.9%

19 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 19 Deviations from Trend in the Unemployment Rate (black line) and Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real GDP (colored line)

20 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 20 Questions Why do we always have unemployment? Can/should the government do something about it?

21 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 21 The Inflation Rate Percent Chg. From Year Ago Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Jan-48 Nov-57 Sep-67 Jul-77 May-87 Mar-97 Jan-07 Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics/FRED Jul 2016: 0.9

22 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 22 Nominal Interest and Inflation Rates

23 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 23 Questions What causes Inflation? Can/should the government (or central bank) do something about it?

24 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 24 Government Spending and Tax Revenues

25 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 25 Public Debt and Deficit. Public Debt is the money that the government owes to non-government entities, excluding within government debt. Public debt as a fraction of GDP is the figure we need to monitor and compare with other countries.

26 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 26 Public Debt and Deficit. Government deficit is what fuels the debt. The deficit has declined since the recession -

27 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 27 Public Debt and Deficit. Rank in the World Country Public Debt as % of GDP 1 Japan Greece Italy France United Kingdom European Union United States Germany China Source: CIA, The World Factbook

28 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 28 Public Debt and Deficit. Interest payments is the cost of the public debt. Due to low interest rates, the cost of debt has been relatively low in recent years.

29 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 29 Questions What is the impact on the economy of fiscal policies (changes in gov. spending or taxes)? What are the consequences of government deficit?

30 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 30 Exports and Imports as Percentage of GDP

31 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 31 Questions Is more trade good or bad? What are the consequences of trade deficit?

32 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 32 Exchange Rates U.S. Dollars to One Euro 1.6 U.S. / Euro Foreign Exchange Rate Jan-99 Jul-01 Jan-04 Jul-06 Jan-09 Jul-11 Jan-14 Jul-16 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)/FRED

33 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 33 Questions What causes changes in exchange rates? Can we predict future exchange rates?

34 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 34 Our Approach In order to answer the questions we asked in this presentation (and other questions), we 1. Develop economic theory (models) 2. Test these our theories against data (evidence) 3. Refine models, 4. Test again Theory Measurement

35 9/1/2016 ECON 302, Introduction 35 How to do well in ECON Do the math. You must practice deriving and proving the results in the notes. Reading the notes is not enough. 2. Attendance. Attending all the classes on time is crucial. 3. Read the notes in advance. Prepare for each class. 4. Review previous material before every class. 5. Homework. You must solve all the homework. 6. Ask me. Highlight parts of the notes that you did not understand, and visit me during office hours. 7. Understand, not Memorize.

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