Voir Steph pour la présentation corpo Chute: Notre travail instaurer une culture du changement. Global Economic Outlook : New Horizons for Agriculture & Agri-food Vivez l effet de la coopération Vincent Cloutier, agr. Chief Economist MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE FOUR NO THREE! Vincent Cloutier 1
Economy Environment Farmers Technology Consumer Shift of the economic center of gravity 1960 1980 1970 1990 2000 1950 1940 1913 2010 2025 1820 AD1 1500 1000 Source : McKinsey Institute Vincent Cloutier 2
Source: IMF China, India, Indonesia Source : IMF Vincent Cloutier 3
Regional Trade Agreements In Force 300 200 100 0 Source : The Economist 1970 80 90 2000 10 14 Seeds: Highly concentrated Rank Company Seed sales 2014 (MUSD) Share of world s market 1 Monsanto (USA) 10 740 25% 2 DuPont-Pioneer (USA) 8 217 19% 3 Syngenta (Switzerland) 3 155 7% 4 Vilmorin (Groupe Limagrain) 1 993 5% 5 Dow Agricultural Sciences (USA) 1 603 4% 6 WinField (Land O Lakes) (estimation) 1 500 3% 7 Bayer Cropscience (Germany) 1 466 3% 8 KWS Group (Germany) 1 178 3% 9 DLF Trifolium (Danmark) 593 1% 10 Sakata (Japan) 511 1% Total Top 10 30 956 72% Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Vincent Cloutier 4
Chemicals: Highly concentrated Rank Company Chemical sales 2014 (MUSD) Share of world s market 1 Syngenta (Switzerland) 11 381 21% 2 Bayer Cropscience (Germany) 10 244 19% 3 BASF (Germany) 7 234 13% 4 DOW Agroscience (USA) 5 686 10% 5 Monsanto (USA) 5 115 9% 6 DuPont (USA) 3 522 6% 7 ADAMA Ag. Solutions (China) 2 876 5% 8 Nufarm (Australia) 2 478 5% 9 Sumitomo (Japan) 1 600 3% 10 Arysta Life Science (Japan) 1 500 3% Total Top 10 51 636 94% Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Continuous consolidation Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Seeds Chemicals Vincent Cloutier 5
Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Farmers Technology Consumer Vincent Cloutier 6
Oil: Polarized Costs of production Saudi Arabia: 15$-40$ COP North America: 55$-65$ COP Tar sands: 70+$ COP Tesla thinks BIG Vincent Cloutier 7
Global Water Scarcity Source: International water Management Institute Vincent Cloutier 8
Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Rising awareness New energetic era launched? Farmers Technology Consumer Vincent Cloutier 9
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Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Rising awareness New energetic era started? Farmers Technology Rapid implantation Consumer Adult obesity in United States Vincent Cloutier 11
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1986 BRFSS, 1987 Adult obesity in United States Vincent Cloutier 12
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1988 BRFSS, 1989 Adult obesity in United States Vincent Cloutier 13
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1990 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1991 Vincent Cloutier 14
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1992 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1993 Vincent Cloutier 15
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1994 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1995 Indice de masse corporelle ou approx. 30 lbs de surpoids par personne de 5 4 Vincent Cloutier 16
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1996 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1997 Vincent Cloutier 17
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1998 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1999 Vincent Cloutier 18
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2000 Indice de masse corporelle ou approx. 30 lbs de surpoids par personne de 5 4 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2001 Vincent Cloutier 19
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2002 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2003 Vincent Cloutier 20
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2004 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2005 Vincent Cloutier 21
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2006 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2007 Vincent Cloutier 22
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2008 No data < 10 % 10 % - 14 % 15 % - 19 % 20 % - 24 % 25 % - 29 % 3 0% Source : Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC. Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2009 Vincent Cloutier 23
Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2010 Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory BRFSS, 2011 *Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in 2011. These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011. Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC Vincent Cloutier 24
Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory BRFSS, 2012 *Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in 2011. These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011. Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory BRFSS, 2013 *Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in 2011. These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before 2011. Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC Vincent Cloutier 25
Quaterly Sales Change (comparable outlets) 35% Vincent Cloutier 26
Changing Consumer? Americans under the age of 35 prefer natural and organic food, which often costs more, and seek more transparency on labels. Bloomberg Businessweek, quoting Goldman Sachs Wal-Mart U.S. Annouces New Animal Welfare & Antibiotics Positions «We have listened to our customers, and are asking our suppliers to engage in improved reporting standards and transparency measures regarding the treatment of farm animals.» May 22 nd, 2015 Vincent Cloutier 27
Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Rising awareness New energetic era started? Farmers Technology Rapid implantation Consumer Mistrustful & Selective Health & Morality North America & Europe Adapting to Evolving Ag Policy Water Next generation s involvement Eastern Europe & Asia Yield s Pollution management (water, air, soil) South America Improving Logistic Infrastructure Africa Irrigation Yields Structuring Value Chains Océania Water Next generation s Involvement Inspired from PwC Vincent Cloutier 28
Farm Consolidation Sources: Statistics Canada, USDA, RICA Farm Consolidation Sources: Statistics Canada, USDA, Eurostat Vincent Cloutier 29
Farm Consolidation Sources: Statistique Canada, USDA, RICA, IBGE Average Midpoint Vincent Cloutier 30
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PRESERVE REFORM Vincent Cloutier 33
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MERCI! Vincent Cloutier, agr. Chief Economist Vincent Cloutier 35