Textile Economic Intelligence

Centre for Trade Facilitation and Research in Textiles Textile Economic Intelligence (WEEK ENDING 12-12-15) NEWS HIGHLIGHTS Cambodia: Garment Brands Failing on Pledge to Raise Prices Falling output, rising export demand keep cotton prices buoyant Government mulls new scheme for cotton farmers; pilot plan in Maharashtra Vietnam cotton imports soar, as China reforms go off track Global: Higher demand from garment makers to rise cotton consumption by 10pc Japan: Tsudakoma breaks all speed barriers - sets record of 2105 rpm in air jet loom history at ITMA Blended yarn prices fall in India, stable in China and Pakistan

GLOBAL ECONOMIC NEWS a) Euro appreciated against Dollar by 1.51% from 0.93 on 7 th Dec 15 to 0.91 on 11 th Dec 15 and Japanese Yen appreciated against dollar by 1.64% from 123.45 per dollar on 7 th Dec 2015 to 121.43 per dollar on 11 th Dec 15. b) The US stock market indicator Dow Jones closed down by 2.63% from 17730.51 on 7 th Dec 15 to 17265.21 on 11 th Dec 15. In Asian market, NIKKEI (Japanese market) has closed down by 2.37% from 19698.15 on 7 th Dec 15 to 19230.48 on 11 th Dec 15. SSE Composite came down by 2.87% from 3536.81 on 7 st Dec 15 to 3435.44 on 11 th Dec 15 and Hang sang went down by 3.33% from 22203.22 on 7 th Dec 15 to 21464.05 on 11 th Dec 15. c) Brent Crude oil price index decreased by 9.72% from 7 th Dec 15 to 11 th Dec 15. It decreased from $41.77 per barrel on 7 th Dec 15 to $37.71 per barrel on 11 th Dec 15. d) Cotlook A Index came down by 2.02% from 71.70 cents/pound on 7 th Dec 15 to 70.25 cents/pound on 11 th Dec 15.

INDIAN ECONOMIC NEWS EXCHANGE RATE: The Rupee depreciated by 0.24% from Rs. 66.62/$ on 7 th Dec 15 to Rs. 66.78/$ on 11 th Dec 15 weakening by Rs. 0.16. FINANCIAL MARKET TRENDS: The Sensex came down by 485.88 points or 1.90% from 25530.11 on 7 th Dec 15 to 25044.23 on 11 th Dec 15. The Nifty went down by 154.95 points or 2.00% from 7765.40 on 7 th Dec 15 to 7610.45 on 11 th Dec 15. CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES: India s Foreign exchange reserves increased by $0.483 bn. to reach $352.10 bn. on 4 th Dec 15 from $351.615 bn. on 4 th Dec 15.

GLOBAL TEXTILE NEWS Bangladesh November exports up 13.73 pct as garment sales surge Bangladesh's exports rose 13.73 percent to $2.75 billion in November from a year earlier, driven by stronger garment sales. Exports from July to November, the first five months of the country's 2015-16 financial year, rose 6.7 percent to $12.88 billion from a year earlier, the Export Promotion Bureau said. Sales of garments, comprising knitwear and woven items, totalled $10.46 billion in July-to-November compared with $9.69 billion a year earlier. Garments are a key foreign-exchange earner for the South Asian nation, whose low wages and trade deals with Western markets have helped make it the world's second-largest apparel exporter after China. Blended yarn prices fall in India, stable in China and Pakistan In India, yarn prices have been mostly weaker in the last week of November, depending on products and market locations. PC yarn prices declined INR2 or 1.5 per cent in Ludhiana market on the week. In India, 30s (65/35) PV yarn prices remained flat on the week at US$2.11 a kg, down US cent 1 (due to weak INR) in Indore market. However, in Ludhiana, PC 30s (52/48) prices fell US cents 4 a kg on the week. In China, PC yarn prices did not move on the week but there was some demand for PC yarn and lowcount open end yarn from low-end fabric makers. In Qianqing, PC (65/35) 32s yarn prices rolled over while 45s PC combed yarn prices were down US cent 1 a kg on the week. Blended spun yarn prices were mostly stable to weak that week, with no room for any uptrend since fibre prices were still finding directions. In Pakistan, PC yarn prices did not decline after anti-dumping duties on Chinese PSF raised raw material costs. Demand was reportedly weak and many mills were trying to convert production to polyester-cotton counts. US textile and apparel sector to benefit from TPP The Trans-Pacific partnership, a trade agreement reached after years of arduous negotiations will prove to be beneficial for the US apparel and textiles exporters as it will open gates of new markets like Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Vietnam. The key market access benefits for the US apparel industry under TPP will be the elimination of import taxes. While Japan will eliminate import taxes on 99.2% of US textiles and apparel products exports right away, Vietnam will do away with import taxes on 98.4% of US textiles and apparel exports immediately and 100% within 4 years. Going in sync with the change, Malaysia too will remove import taxes on 79.2% of US textiles and apparel exports. New Zealand will also eliminate import taxes on 50.0% of US textiles and apparel exports immediately and 100% within 7 years. As per the figures reported, 54% of total US textiles and apparel exports went to TPP markets in 2014 worth US $ 835 Million, with exports

tariffs as high as 34% in new TPP markets. An estimated US $ 48 Million in duties are levied on us exports of textiles and apparel products in TPP markets every year. Japan: Tsudakoma breaks all speed barriers - sets record of 2105 rpm in air jet loom history at ITMA ITMA Milano turned out to be a record breaking event. The Japanese giant - Tsudakoma - set a new record by breaking all speed barriers. Tsudakoma became a titan in the world of weaving when it set the record-high rpm of a continuous 2105 pick per minute on its concept model air jet loom display at ITMA Milano for the next generation. The outstanding feature of jet loom was high productivity with high speeds and stability while weaving quality fabric. Tsudakoma exhibited a concept model that implemented the latest technology for the fastest jet loom in the world and visitors from all over the world were surprised and excited by the Tusdakoma s world record. At the company s booth, the new air jet loom ZAX9200i Master also demonstrated Jacquard weaving of classy curtain at 850 rpm high speed. It received acclaim with its high speed and massive energy savings ability. ITMA 2015 was a great success for Tsudakoma which exhibited two very unique machines which broke the technological barrier by running the highest speed at ITMA over 2100 rpm by 190 cms Air Jet and weaving very complex furnishing fabric with 8 color Jacquard at a speed of 850 rpm on a 340 cms machine. Some of the most important Indian visitors to Tsudakoma booth were Welspun s Mr. B. K. Goenka, Arvind Mills Mr. Sanjay Lalbhai, Ashima s Mr. Chintan Parikh, Himatsingka s Mr. Dinesh Himatsingka, LS Mills Mr. Manivannan, Jai Jagadambiga s Mr. Rajasekaran and D Decor s Mr. Ajay Arora amongst others. Global: Higher demand from garment makers to rise cotton consumption by 10pc Bangladesh to witness rise in cotton consumption by 10 percent to more than one million tonnes due to higher demand from garment makers and favourable government policies for the textile sector while cotton consumption in Vietnam, one of the major competitors of Bangladesh in global apparel trade, will rise 20 percent to 1.1 million this fiscal year, as per the latest report released last week by the International Cotton Advisory Committee. The ICAC report said world cotton consumption has been revised downward from initial projections to 24.4 million tonnes. With consumption slowing, world cotton imports are forecast to decline 3 percent to 7.4 million tonnes in 2015-16, which would constitute the fourth consecutive season in which import volume declined after peaking at 9.8 million tonnes in 2011-12. China's imports are expected to shrink 33 percent to 1.2 million tonnes. World cotton production is forecast to drop 12 percent to 23.1 million tonnes, which is 1.3 million tonnes lower than the projected demand in 2015-16. Jahangir Alamin, managing director of Fuad Spinning Mills Ltd and also a former president of Bangladesh Textile Mills Association, a platform for spinners and weavers said that the rise in cotton consumption is not surprising as the demand is increasing due to higher garment exports from Bangladesh. They have a lot of spindle capacity all they need now is adequate supply of power and gas to run the factories at full steam.

Vietnam cotton imports soar, as China reforms go off track The heady growth in Vietnam's textiles industry, expected to export $28bn this year, is to take its cotton imports close to those of top-ranked China whose crop subsidy reforms are not playing out as forecast. The US Department of Agriculture's Hanoi bureau hiked to a record 5.37m bales (1.17m tonnes) its forecast for Vietnam's cotton imports in 2015-16. The figure, representing an increase of more than 1m bales year on year, is some 520,000 bales above the USDA's official forecast. And it would put Vietnam, which a decade ago was importing fewer than 700,000 bales of cotton a year, with Bangladesh and China in the club importing more than 5m bales of the fibre a year. 'Great increase in demand' The upgrade reflects Vietnamese consumption which "continues to increase in order to meet strong demand from its expanding textile industry", the bureau said in a report. In the yarn sector, the number of spindles reached 6.3m as of last season, up 24% in three years - with a further 30% spurt to 8.2m spindles expected by 2016-17. The increase will "cause a great increase in demand for cotton", the briefing said. And the yarn is going to meet "strong" demand both from domestic textiles and garment makers - which have enjoyed inward investment of some $2bn in the first 10 months of this year from the likes of Hong Kong, South Korea and Turkey and buyers abroad. Cambodia: Garment Brands Failing on Pledge to Raise Prices IndustriALL, one of the largest federations of trade unions around the world, said on Wednesday that it was disappointed in a group of major international brands that appear to have largely ignored a pledge made last year to help Cambodian factories pay their workers a higher minimum wage. In September 2014, IndustriALL hailed the unprecedented move by the eight brands to raise the prices they paid Cambodian factories for their garment orders so that the factories could in turn pay higher wages to workers. The Garment Manufacturers Association in Cambodia (GMAC) also welcomed the pledge, while the largest independent union in the country called it an important development. The government has bumped up the garment sector s monthly minimum wage twice since then, first from $100 to $128 and starting in January to $140. But the eight brands appear not to have raised their prices, according to IndustriALL. Among the brands that joined the pledge was Swedish clothing giant H&M, which places more orders in Cambodia than any other buyer. It was joined by C&A, Inditex, New Look, Next, the N Brown Group, Primark and Tchibo. Last year, that was the strongest statement that they ever made, and they made it public, that says We would pay more to accommodate any agreed minimum wage increase. This, to a great extent, has not happened, he said. Part of the problem may lie with IndustriALL making the pledge with the brands corporate social responsibility (CSR) people, rather than those responsible for making orders and paying for them. The brands, as a matter of policy, won t reveal the prices they pay their suppliers not even to IndustriALL, the group that convinced them to make the pledge in the first place. In

September, GMAC said that 99.4 percent of the member factories it surveyed reported receiving the same prices from their buyers as the year before or less. It said a third of the factories that responded claimed to be getting up to 10 percent less. Because the brands won t reveal the prices they pay, there is no way to confirm the claims. Since the GMAC survey, all eight of the brands that joined the 2014 pledge have been contacted by The Cambodia Daily and asked if they had raised their prices. Only H&M and Primark replied, and even they declined to answer the question. IndustriALL admits that the pledge lacks transparency. What the industry needs, it says, is a way to link the brands purchasing practices to rising wages. And that is what its new, multicountry program ACT (Action, Collaboration, Trans- formation) aims to achieve, starting in Cambodia. The goal is to work with 14 international brands, including the eight that signed last year s pledge, to create industrywide collective bargaining not just over wages but other factors affecting costs, including leave and bonuses backed by those brands purchasing practices, which cover the prices they pay but also contract lengths and other decisions. We can t see into the contracts between the suppliers and the brands. The brands will say one thing, the suppliers will say another. So what we need to have is an actual transparent mechanism, not on the pricing perhaps, but on the commitments, so that we can see that there is this linkage.

INDIAN TEXTILE NEWS Falling output, rising export demand keep cotton prices buoyant As Pakistani garments manufacturers see Indian market as a big opportunity, the western neighbour has also opened its door to India to sell cotton, potentially moving local prices even as harvesting continues. Pakistan has, so far, contracted to import one million bales (170 kg each) of cotton from India after the crops there were affected by floods. Pakistan is buying more cotton from India as both the quality and quantity of the crop has come down. Pakistan s cotton production is expected to drop 25 per cent to 11.4 million bales this year, the lowest since 2003. Bangladesh and Indonesia will be the other two major buyers of Indian cotton. Demand from China may not see a rebound as normally it buys more than 50 per cent of India s shipments. Farmers in India last year suffered after China, the world s top cotton consumer, cut import quotas to balance its own stockpiles accumulated over two years. The wholesale prices of cotton were quoted above Rs 4,100 a quintal as of December 4 in most of the places in Gujarat and Telengana, compared with about Rs 3,200 a quintal in October 2014. The government had asked the cotton corporation of India (CCI) to buy the fibre at a minimum support price of Rs 4,000 a quintal. The MSP has not been increased this year. With the increase in cotton prices, the government may not have to roll out subsidies. It released Rs 16,000 crore to buy 8 million bales from farmers in the 2014-15 season. This year s procurement will be less and may be about 3 million bales. India s cotton output is set to fall to 37.05 million bales in 2015-16 from 38.27 million bales last year, according to the association s data. Domestic consumption is estimated at 32.5 million bales, while imports would be 1.4 million bales this year. The opening stock was 7.86 million bales. Due to lower freight, India is the first choice for buyers in Pakistan. Indian traders have contracted to sell at 63-66 US cents per pound, mainly via the Wagah border. Pakistan s overall cotton imports are seen climbing to 4 million bales in the year that started on August 1, from 1.2 million bales a year ago. The exports from India for 2015-16 are expected to increase by about 18 per cent compared with the previous year. During the cotton year of 2014-15 (from October 1, 2014 to September 30, 2015), 5.77 million bales of raw cotton were exported as against 11.69 million bales during the cotton year of 2013-14, the minister said. He attributed the decline to a substantial reduction in import by China. This year, two-third of India s cotton crop in Punjab got damaged due to whitefly attack, mainly in the Malwa region. The state grew cotton in about 450,000 hectares and it produced 1.4 million bales in 2014-15 (crop year). This year s cotton acreage was less than 500,000 hectares. Punjab, which grows Bt cotton like any other state, had not seen pest attack on such a scale in the past. Whitefly is to be controlled through sprays of pesticides as Bt cotton provides resistance against four other insects, including Bollgard. As the crop got damaged, farmers in Punjab protested and sought relief from the government. The state government released Rs 643.58 crore as relief for the cotton farmers. Meanwhile, the Maharashtra state co-operative cotton growers marketing federation is ready to procure up to 10 million quintals of cotton against the 2.7 million quintals purchased last season. The federation has opened 96 procurement centres in three phases. The Indian cotton federation (ICF) in July had predicted export demand to be sluggish when the Pakistan factor was not there.

Government mulls new scheme for cotton farmers; pilot plan in Maharashtra The Centre is planning to introduce Direct Payment Deficiency System (DPDS) to help the cotton farmers have better realisation of their produce when market rate rules below the minimum support price. Under this system, the farmers will directly get the difference amount between the MSP and market price, if it (the latter) is ruling below the MSP. If the pilot is successful, the DPDS will be rolled out in all cotton-growing regions. The Agricultural Produce Marketing Corporation (APMC) price will be taken as the market price under the system. Earlier, the Government used to buy cotton by paying the MSP of Rs 3,750 per quintal and created artificial short supply in market. It also incurred huge cost on interest and storage of the procured stock. Under the DPDS, the farmers have to submit documents like a copy of APMC receipt, land records and estimated farm yield to avail the benefit. In the last season ended October 2015, the Cotton Corporation of India procured 17.60 lakh bales and Maharashtra State Cooperative Marketing Federation purchased 5.64 lakh bales, taking the total to 23.27 lakh bales, worth Rs 3,556 crore. The overall procurement across the country was 86 lakh bales. Despite a drought-like situation, cotton production in Maharashtra is expected to be at 80 lakh bales compared to 78 lakh bales in the last season." The yield in Maharashtra is expected to go up to 355.65 kg per hectare from 316.32 kg per hectare last year. The area under cotton cultivation has gone down to 38.24 lakh hectares from 41.92 lakh last year mainly due to weak prices. Meanwhile, India will be hosting the International Cotton Advisory Committee Plenary Meeting in Mumbai from December 6-11 after a gap of 11 years. The theme of 74th Plenary meeting is "From Farm to Fabric: The Many Faces of Cotton". The meet, likely to be attended by 500 delegates from 50 nations, is of special significance for India in view of the role played by textiles sector in the economy, Gupta said.