INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JEUX DU COMMERCE 2013

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JEUX DU COMMERCE 2013

Written by Geneviève Clerux-Perrault and Valérie Larchelle fr the Jeux du Cmmerce Data Surces: http://www.srgnet.cm/pdf/dc%20srg%20march%2016%20release.pdf http://www.sk-ii.cm/en/index.aspx http://www.pg.cm/en_us/brands/beauty_grming/skii.shtml http://www.pg.cm/en_us/brands/beauty_grming/lay.shtml AC Nielsen Market Track Data Canada, Skin Care Categry, data ending 30 June 2012. http://www.ddfskincare.cm/skin-care/skin-care-system/article-ur-dermatlgicapprach,default,pg.html?bc=true http://knwledgetday.whartn.upenn.edu/2012/10/estee-lauders-new-skin-care-brand-inchina-the-ptential-fr-high-risk-high-reward/ http://www.csmeticsdesign-asia.cm/market-trends/eurmnitr-reveals-the-state-f-the- Asia-Pacific-skin-care-market INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 2

Cngratulatins! Yu have been selected as the cnsulting cmpany t assess the current ptential f Prcter and Gamble (P&G) in targeting the fast grwing segment f the Asian ppulatin, in particular in the Canadian skin care market. Prcter & Gamble: the cmpany Since the beginning f its activities in 1837, P&G has managed t grw itself arund the wrld thanks t innvative prduct develpment and key acquisitins. Whether thrugh the launch f such prducts as Tide, Crest and Pampers, r mre recently with Febreze and Swiffer, the disciplined innvatin f P&G has allwed the cmpany t cmmercialize high-value quality prducts and services that imprve the quality f life f cnsumers arund the wrld. Since the middle f the 1980s, diverse acquisitins have allwed P&G t refine and cntinue its missin. Brands such as Vicks, Oil f Olay, Tampax, Clairl and Pantene are excellent examples f this cntinued grwth. In 2005, P&G acquired Gillette and adds Duracell Gillette, Oral-B and Braun t its brand prtfli. Prcter & Gamble Canada distributes mre than 100 brands, gruped int 2 divisins: 1) Beauty & Grming and 2) Husehld Needs. With mre than 138,000 emplyees wrking in 80 cuntries, P&G recrded sales f $82.6 billin in 2011. Demcraphic verview: Asian ppulatin in Canada Asian ppulatin is the fastest grwing ethnic grup in Canada. We believe that understanding the ethnic media will help P&G target that white space pprtunity that is the Asian ppulatin. What we mean by ethnic media is t target and design marketing especially fr a specific minrity ethnic grup. Ethnic media plays a much larger rle in the lives f fast-grwing grups than traditinal media measurement wuld indicate. The largest and fastest-grwing ethnic grups, Chinese and Suth-Asian Canadian segments, are particularly heavy cnsumers f mstly in-language ethnic media. 1 75% f Chinese Canadians and 75% f Suth Asian Canadians aged 15 and ver have used at least ne ethnic radi, TV statin, r newspaper in the last seven days. Amng Hispanic Canadians, 55% have dne s in the last week. Only 50% f Chinese Canadians and 57% f Suth Asian Canadians are reached by Englishlanguage newspapers. English radi reaches 44% f Suth Asian Canadians, and 53% f Chinese Canadians. English TV perfrms a little better in terms f reach, reaching 74% f Suth Asian Canadians and 65% f Chinese Canadians. Mre than half (52%) f the ethnic grups surveyed agree with the statement: I rarely see advertising messages intended fr me, suggesting a significant lst pprtunity.- Surce Slutins research grup 1 In language: in the mther tngue INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 3

See appendix 1 fr mre details abut media and ther preferences fr Asian ppulatin Skin Care market: Skin Care categry definitin: Prducts that fcus n delivering imprved verall appearance f the face, neck, and eye area. Includes prducts that cleanse, misturize, prevent/treat skin cnditins (such as wrinkles, age spts, blackheads, and wrinkles), regimen kits, and deep cleansing manual devices. It includes als anti-aging, cmplexin care and essentials. Skin Care Categry in Canada Executive Summary by Eurmnitr Trends The skin care categry in 2011 cnsisted mainly f facial care (77% f value sales), fllwed by bdy care (20%) and then hand care (3%). These ratis have remained relatively stable thrughut the review perid. The market grew by 5% in current value terms t reach a size f C$1,597 millin, cmparing favurably t the value CAGR f 5% during the review perid. Grwth during the review perid hwever has been declining since 2005 (11%) t a lw f 3% in 2009. The dwnturn in the ecnmy affected grwth in this categry, but nt as much as it did in ther beauty and persnal care categries. Skin care is an essential part f mst wmen s daily rutines, and while mst wmen are cntent t bargain shp fr items such as shamps, cnditiners and tthpaste, they are fairly brand lyal t their skin care regimens. Cmpetitive Landscape In 2011, L'Oréal Canada Inc ranked the highest in market value share with 18% (sales f C$292 millin) due t the success f its Lancôme, Maybelline New Yrk and L'Oréal Paris brands. L Oréal Canada maintains a strng presence in bth the mass and premium segments. The cmpany was amng the first t distribute its premium prducts thrugh mass channels, primarily drugstres. The cmpany s key premium brands in skin care include Lancôme, Vichy, Bitherm and La Rche-Psay, while in the mass segment the cmpany features L Oréal Derm-Expertise and ther L Oréal Paris subbrands. The cmpany`s premium Bitherm line ranked furth in the bdy care segment with 7% f market value share, while Lancôme, Bitherm and Vichy all were in tp five psitins in terms f premium face masks and premium facial misturisers. L'Oréal`s La Rche-Psay brand was prmting its line f adult acne cream called Effaclar K, which is interesting as the industry has seen a sharp decline in cmmercially available acne creams as an increasing number f acne sufferers are mving t prescriptin acne medicatins. Prspects The skin care categry is prjected t pst a 3% CAGR in cnstant value terms t reach a market size f C$1,840 millin by 2016. Fairly mdest grwth will be driven by a slwdwn in several areas, including anti-agers. This is due t the fact that the market is becming mre mature and saturated, and it is becming difficult fr manufacturers t cntinue the pace f new innvatins and prduct launches. While prduct innvatin will cntinue, marketing will becme increasingly imprtant t maintain a high INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 4

level f cnsumer awareness f new and upcming prducts. It will be necessary fr manufacturers t cmmunicate their benefits t custmers in view f the multitude f prducts already n stre shelves in all price ranges, many claiming technlgical breakthrughs in skin care. 2 The Skin Care Categry in Canada is wrth $382 Millin in Sales with a +4% grwth ver the past 12 mnths. This grwth is driven by: Cleansers: $166 Millin +2% vs. Year Ag (YA) Misturizers and Treatments: $202 Millin +2% vs. YA Facial Depilatries: $6 Millin +188% vs. YA (Olay +60% f grwth)* *Surce: AC Nielsen Market Track Data in Canada, ending June 30 2012. 2 Eurmnitr, July 2012 http://www.eurmnitr.cm/skin-care-in-canada/reprt INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 5

Canadian Skin Care Categry AC Nielsen INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 6

Surce: AC Nielsen Canada, Market Track Data ending December 31 2011 P&G has a range f skin care brands in its glbal Prtfli that might meet the Canadian-asian ppulatin needs. Olay (available in Canada) Olay is a wrldwide leader in skin care and has been trusted by wmen fr 60 years. Olay has a prmise t wmen everywhere. It cntinues t hld t the philsphy it was funded n: t maintain a deep understanding f wmen s changing needs and t cmbine prducts that fit their needs with the latest advances in skin care technlgy. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 7

SK-II: Tp Selling skin care brand in Asia Fr mre than 30 years, SK-II has tuched the lives f millins f wmen arund the wrld by helping them t Live Clear thrugh the miracle f crystal clear skin and life. Since its launch, SK-II with PiteraTM has becme a special secret shared by celebrities such as Cate Blanchett and wmen arund the wrld, transfrming skin alng the five dimensins f texture, radiance, firmness, spt cntrl and wrinkle resilience critical t crystal clarity. A leading skincare brand in 13 markets, it cntinues t deliver the transfrmative pwer f crystal clear skin and life thrugh well-lved prducts including Facial Treatment Essence SK-II is a prestige skin care brand nt yet available in Canada SK-II is perceived as ne f the mst expensive skin care brand in the wrld DDF: derm-slutins In 1991, renwned New Yrk dermatlgist Dr. Hward Sbel funded DDF Dctr s Dermatlgic Frmula t enable his patients t care fr their skin at hme. Inspired by dermatlgic apprach and expertise, the DDF skin care system is designed with advanced prtcls targeting ne r mre f the specific skin cncerns belw. DDF targets rt causes with: Antixidants t help neutralize surface free radicals Cleaning frmulatins t help remve excess sebum Surface-penetrating hydratin t help strengthen the skin s misture barrier DDF is a prestige skin care brand nt yet available in Canada What is currently happening in Asia: Accrding t Eurmnitr, Asia Pacific regin has sme f the highest numbers f new prduct launches. Industry experts believe that the anti-aging categry is where mst f the grwth will cme frm. In the article Eurmnitr reveals the state f the Asia-Pacific skin care market, industry analyst Irina Barbalva ntes: Asia Pacific has set the trend frm creams t skin lightening, and premium antiagers are t be ne f the strngest perfrming categries with a 7.7 percent glbal value grwth. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 8

As cnsultant yu are allwed t cnsult publicly available infrmatin n internet. We suggest yu cnsult the full-article n Asia-Pacific skin care market. The link is : www.csmeticsdesignasia.cm/market-trends/eurmnitr-reveals-the-state-f-the-asia-pacific-skin-care-market The Challenge P&G Canada is trying t expand its prtfli vertically in Canada t meet new and grwing cnsumer needs in the skin care categry. The Asian market in Canada seems t be a very interesting white space that culd be targeted. As ur lead preferred cnsulting firm we are expecting yu t prvide us with a recmmendatin. Based n the infrmatin belw, what strategy shuld P&G Canada fllw t address this white space pprtunity? We believe that 3 ptins exist, feel free t suggest any ther if we frgt an alternative. Shuld yu recmmend P&G t: Develp a new brand fr the Asian ppulatin in the Canadian market? Take an existing brand and adapt it t make it mre appealing t this segment? Intrduce a glbal r Asian brand frm the existing prtfli int the Canadian market? In rder t make this prject sustainable and implementable yu shuld cnsider the fllwing elements: 1. A gd return n investment 2. Cnsumer needs and preferences 3. An eye-level timeline fr the verall prject 4. A detailed descriptin f shrt-term assignments and bjectives fr the chsen 5. Pssible risks and their mitigatins INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 9

APPENDIX 1 Fr Immediate Release STUDY EXPLORES MEDIA USE AMONG GROWING ETHNIC GROUPS TRADITIONAL MEASUREMENT SHORTCHANGES ADVERTISERS TORONTO (March 16, 2006) As Canada s ppulatin becmes mre diverse, traditinal media measurement tls are becming inadequate in their ability t prvide an accurate read f audiences, accrding t a new study by Slutins Research Grup, a Trnt-based market research firm. The study, the first f its kind in Canada, examines six majr ppulatin grups in Trnt, Vancuver and Mntreal, including Canadians f Chinese, Suth Asian, West Asian, Hispanic and Italian backgrunds, as well as Black Canadians. Amng the findings: Internet is a vital media ptin and a cmmunicatins tl fr all ethnic grups surveyed and they are mre likely t have bradband in the hme. 88% use the Internet, slightly abve the market benchmark (market benchmark being the general ppulatin f Trnt, Mntreal and Vancuver). Average time spent with Internet per day is 1.8 hurs per persn amng the majr ethnic grups surveyed, slightly ahead f the market benchmark f 1.7 hurs. Chinese Canadians are particularly active users f Internet averaging 2.4 hurs a day abut the same amunt f time they spend with televisin and significantly higher than time spent with radi. 80% f Chinese Canadians use Internet at hme (vs. 68% market average). Majr ethnic grups in Trnt, Vancuver and Mntreal are smewhat lighter users f traditinal radi, TV and newspapers. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 10

5-day readership f daily newspapers in any language is 16% lwer amng majr ethnic grups surveyed than it is amng the market benchmark. Radi tuning amng majr ethnic grups is 9% belw the market benchmark, while TV is 4% belw average. While they tend t spend less time watching TV, ethnic Canadians are mre likely than the market benchmark t have digital cable r satellite TV (41% vs. 39%). Black and Chinese Canadians lead n this measure (47% and 44%, respectively). Ethnic media plays a much larger rle in the lives f fast-grwing grups than traditinal media measurement wuld indicate. The largest and fastest-grwing ethnic grups, Chinese and Suth-Asian Canadian segments, are particularly heavy cnsumers f mstly in-language ethnic media. 75% f Chinese Canadians and 75% f Suth Asian Canadians 15+ have used at least ne ethnic radi r TV statin, r ethnic newspaper in the last seven days. Amng Hispanic Canadians, 55% have dne s in the last week. Only 50% f Chinese Canadians and 57% f Suth Asian Canadians are reached by Englishlanguage newspapers. English radi reaches 44% f Suth Asian Canadians, and 53% f Chinese Canadians. English TV perfrms a little better in terms f reach, reaching 74% f Suth Asian Canadians and 65% f Chinese Canadians. Mre than half (52%) f the ethnic grups surveyed agree with the statement: I rarely see advertising messages intended fr me, suggesting a significant lst pprtunity. Rapid ppulatin change in majr markets is a serius challenge t traditinal media measurement and this issue is nt ging away. Current measurement tls such as BBM, Nielsen r NADBank either ignre r severely underrepresent millins f peple in majr markets, resulting in a waste f advertiser dllars, said Kaan Yigit, Study Directr fr Diversity in Canada. The infrmatin fr this release cmes frm the Media Use sectin f Diversity in Canada, an independent syndicated research study. T maintain an unbiased perspective, Slutins Research Grup funds its wn syndicated research studies. Diversity in Canada delivers a ne-f-a-kind perspective n Canada s fastest-grwing ppulatin grups in Trnt, Vancuver and Mntreal. A ttal f 3,000 respndents (age 15+) were interviewed in 9 languages: English, French, Cantnese, Mandarin, Punjabi, Hindi, Urdu, Spanish and Italian. This is the secnd f a series f data releases frm Diversity in Canada. Upcming releases will cver subjects such as scial attitudes, sprts, cmmunicatins and technlgy. Cntacts Kaan Yigit, kyigit@srgnet.cm 416.323.1337 x 22 David Ackerman, dackerman@srgnet.cm 416.323.1337 x 25 2200 YONGE STREET, SUITE 910 TORONTO, ONTARIO CANADA M4S 2C6 TEL 416 323 1337 FAX 416 323 0338 WWW.SRGNET.COM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 11

T give after the first hur f the case: Our marketing department just gave us this article. It lks like Estée Lauder is als ging after this market and thinking abut it with an interesting angle. It is nw giving us even mre thught arund if P&G shuld leverage a similar apprach fr the Asian ppulatin in Canada? We hpe this article will help cntinue yu wrk arund analyzing ur different alternatives. Estee Lauder s New Skin Care Brand in China: The Ptential fr Highrisk, High-reward Psted n Octber 15, 2012 Can Estee Lauder Cmpanies make Osia a husehld wrd in China s luxury skin care market? The New Yrk-based manufacturer f skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care prducts is banking that Chinese wmen will buy a new high-end brand tailred specifically fr them, designed t prmte what Estee Lauder s scientists say Asian wmen want mst in a skin care prduct natural radiance. Already knwn fr such brands as Bbbi Brwn, Clinique, MAC, Origins and La Mer, amng thers, Estee Lauder s decisin t launch a whle new brand rather than simply a new prduct suggests the cmpany is cnfident that an initiative begun mre than five years ag will expand Estee Lauder s ftprint nt just in China, but thrughut Asia. The Osia prduct line is expected t sell fr between US$45 and US$190. The venture is nt withut risk. Osia which is being intrduced this mnth in nly tw department stres in Hng Kng and n sme Cathay Pacific Airways Hng Kng flights already faces cmpetitin frm ther Asian skin care prducts. In additin, its success depends t sme extent n cntinuing strength in the high-end luxury market, despite weakening in the Chinese ecnmy verall. And sme bservers questin whether a hybrid prduct like Osia will appeal t Chinese wmen. Accrding t a New Yrk Times article, Osia will use English labels but its frmulas will cntain such ingredients as ginseng, Asiatic pennywrt and ganderma. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 12

Whartn faculty familiar with the Chinese market are generally ptimistic abut Estee Lauder s venture, while als nting the challenges that any new brand faces. As part f the Estee Lauder family, Osia can and shuld leverage the high brand equity f Estee Lauder in the Chinese market, at least in the initial stage, says marketing prfessr Qiawei Shen. Brand name is still a very imprtant element when Chinese cnsumers are chsing their skincare prducts. While it prbably wn t be hard t cnvince sme cnsumers t try the new brand, the difficult part [will be] t cnvert them t lyal custmers. The true quality f the prduct is ultimately the key. The cncept f using Chinese herbs as ingredients in skincare prducts is nt new, Shen adds. A brand that claims t specifically cater t Chinese r Asian skin types des nt necessarily win market share. Many brands riginating frm Krea and Japan, which are designed fr Asian skin by nature, already have prducts with ginseng r ther Chinese plants as ingredients. Hw is Osia different frm these? The market is there *and+ the brand will enjy a glw frm the *reputatin+ f the parent cmpany, says Shen. But in the end, whether cnsumers are ging t repeat their purchase and spread psitive wrd f muth depends n whether the prduct quality lives up t their expectatins. A Mre Sphisticated Market Estee Lauder, funded in 1946, is experiencing strng grwth in China. The cmpany reprted a rise in fiscal furth quarter earnings f 25% and a 9.2% increase in revenue, t $2.25 billin. Accrding t an article in The New Yrk Times, fiscal 2012 is the first year that sales in the Asia Pacific regin exceeded $2 billin. The cmpany sells its prducts in mre than 150 cuntries and territries mainly thrugh limited distributin in, fr example, high-end department stres and perfumeries, and specialized retail stres. China, with sales f $500 millin, is its third largest market, behind the U.S. and Japan. Whartn marketing prfessr Barbara Kahn gives Estee Lauder high marks fr understanding hw imprtant skin care is t the Chinese cnsumer. One f the key differences between China and Asia, in general and the U.S. is the imprtance f skin care prducts. If yu lk at a typical drugstre, even a Sephra in Asia versus ne in the U.S., yu will see a larger percentage f the stre devted t [thse items+. Kahn als pints ut that Chinese cnsumers think f the skin care prcess as a multi-step regime, and they take it very seriusly. They are generally mre sphisticated in this categry than the typical American cnsumer. Given the imprtance f the skin care categry and the amunt f mney cnsumers are willing t spend, this strategy f develping a new lcal brand makes a lt f sense. Estee Lauder s initiative is brilliant *as well as+ risky, accrding t Whartn marketing prfessr David Reibstein. In China, he says, a number f trends cme int play: A strng desire t be beautiful, with a heavy cncern abut skin care; a desire t be n the leading edge f fashin and skin care [as shwn by] designer clthes, shes and csmetics all cming frm ther parts f the wrld; and a desire fr, and intrigue with, freign brands *as shwn by+ the ppularity f sme f the mst visible fashin brands. The fact that Estee Lauder understands the Chinese market, the skin care needs f the market, premium psitining and branding, and hw t gain distributin suggests the new brand will be a INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 13

winner, Reibstein adds. The risk fr Estee Lauder is that it s a crwded market. The big questin is whether there is rm fr bth La Mer [anther premier skin prduct frm Estee Lauder+ and Osia. Whartn peratins and infrmatin prfessr Marshall Fisher wh was in China recently teaching a glbal supply chain management curse breaks the scenari int tw questins: Will a high-priced prduct sell in China, and hw much shuld the cmpany adapt the prduct t Chinese tastes? The answer t the first questin is clearly yes, if yu lk at the number f successful luxury brands that have entered the cuntry, Fisher says. The reasn is that even thugh average dispsable incme in China is belw [that in] the West, it is such a big cuntry that the tp f the incme pyramid is huge. This has made China a prime target fr luxury brands. Prducts entering China have adapted t varying degrees, Fisher adds. Nike changed little, but KFC changed almst everything; their cmment was, All we brught frm the U.S. was the picture f the Clnel. Bth have been highly successful in China. Evidently, peple wh buy Nike buy it in part because it is a Western brand, and adapting it t much wuld destry that value. I wuld guess that Estee Lauder is mre like Nike than KFC. At a dinner n the last day f their curse, Fisher discussed this secnd questin with the head f Starbucks in China. The Starbucks executive nted hw the cmpany eventually tweaked Starbucks menu and flavrs enugh t make them appealing t Chinese cnsumers, says Fisher. His remark was that they finally figured ut that cnsumers in China wh buy Starbucks are lking fr a Western experience, but ne that is tuned t their taste buds. Cmpetitin frm Other Brands Fisher s c-instructr in the glbal curse was Edwin Keh, CEO f the Hng Kng Research Institute fr Apparel and Textiles. He recalls a presentatin at Whartn earlier this year in which he learned tw things: First, that Chinese cnsumers like lightly scented prducts and think a lt f Western prducts are t strng and verpwering. And secnd, that the Asian market sells [mre] skin prtectin, skin tne lightening and misturizers than the West, prbably because the Chinese market is dminated by urban prfessinals wh wrk in crwded and plluted envirnments. Als, he nted, light skin tne is cnsidered a sign f beauty. Osia lks t be a very exclusive high-end niche brand being launched at a tp Hng Kng department stre that is equivalent t Saks r Neiman Marcus in the U.S., Keh says. The line can cmmand a higher price pint and prbably will have fairly small vlumes fr the immediate future. This may be a gd way t test the market and tweak the prduct. But Keh, like thers, pints t the significant brand cmpetitin frm Japanese and Krean beauty brands, *which+ align very well with the Chinese cnsumer and have near-market advantages. Beauty prducts and next-t-skin apparel are tugh t sell and expensive t market, especially in China, Keh adds. S a new brand will be high risk, high return. It will be interesting t see hw this plays ut. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 14

Althugh sme bservers express cncern that Osia culd cannibalize Estee Lauder s ther brands in China, Shen des nt see this as likely. Given its pricing and psitining, it is targeting a different cnsumer segment frm the average cnsumers f Estee Lauder and Clinique, its tw best-knwn brands in China. Instead, the intrductin f Osia seems t explre the market pprtunity with the ever-grwing wealthy class in China. There is a segment f affluent Chinese cnsumers wh are willing t spend a lt n skincare prducts. The ecnmic dwnturn f China has little impact n the behavir f this segment. Keh cncurs: The timing f the release culd have been better, given the recent dm and glm, but the rich Chinese cnsumer is still spending and there are still lts f rich Chinese. S I dn t see *the current ecnmy+ as an issue. Whartn marketing prfessr Jhn Zhang describes why he thinks Osia represents a very far-sighted strategy. Up t this pint, Chinese cnsumers wrship anything Western, especially in csmetics. Hwever, at sme pint in the future, Chinese custmers will becme mre ratinal, they will want t g back t their rts, they will value their wn heritage and they will want the things that are gd specifically fr them. When that day cmes, pure Western brands will lse their luster, but Osia may nt. Building a new brand frm scratch is clearly expensive, he adds. Fr that reasn, starting in Hng Kng is a gd way t test the water. In additin, it is als a gd way t establish the high-end psitining. I believe that the success f the brand will depend n tw things. First, there has t be slid science behind the new frmulatin. Withut it, the brand will nt succeed in China fr lng, and ginseng alne will nt carry the brand fr sure. Secnd, gd marketing must balance mdernity, traditin and science, especially in csmetics. http://www.nytimes.cm/2012/09/25/business/estee-lauder-develps-a-brand-justfr-china.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 http://knwledgetday.whartn.upenn.edu/2012/10/estee-lauders-new-skin-carebrand-in-china-the-ptential-fr-high-risk-high-reward/ INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CASE JDC 2013 15