Perspectives on Export Markets Changes and Outlook

GRDC Update - Perth Perth, W. Australia February 27, 218 Perspectives on Export Markets Changes and Outlook Vince Peterson President

The 197 s Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

The 197 s Ames, Iowa Skunk Creek RFC

Jon USA Special Operations Forces Ranger Sam Australian Special Operations Forces Commando The 216-17 Football team

US Wheat Production

1989/199 199/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 215/216 216/217 217/218 US Wheat Production Average Production 59.5 MMT 1 MT 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

1 MT 1 MT US Wheat Exports 4, 35, 3, Average Exports 29 MMT 25, 2, 15,

Distribution of US Wheat Exports in 1985-9 Indian Sub. Cont. 8% China 13% E & SE Asia 25% Latin Am. 14% Europe 6% Mid-East & N. Africa 3% Sub S. Africa 5%

Distribution of US Wheat Exports in 216-17 Asia 12. MMT 43% Europe / Mid East / Africa 4. MMT 14% Latin America 12. MMT 43%

198/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1984/1985 1985/1986 1986/1987 1987/1988 1988/1989 1989/199 199/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 215/216 216/217 1 MT 1, 9, 8, China Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 7 MMT! 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

1 MT 6 5 4 3 Indian Subcontinent: Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 4 MMT! 21: USW Closes India Office 1.2 1.8.6 2.4 1.2 Imports from U.S. Bangladesh Imports from U.S. Pakistan Imports from U.S. India Imports from U.S. Sri Lanka

198/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1984/1985 1985/1986 1986/1987 1987/1988 1988/1989 1989/199 199/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 215/216 216/217 1 MT 6, 5, Egypt: Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 5 MMT! 217: USW Closes Cairo Office 4, 3, 2, 1,

Even those among the best lose some

MMT 12. Australia Wheat Exports Declining Markets: Middle East, East & North Africa 1. 8. Sales loss: 6 MMT! 6. 4. 2.. Middle East, East & North Africa

198/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1984/1985 1985/1986 1986/1987 1987/1988 1988/1989 1989/199 199/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 215/216 216/217 1 MT 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, China Wheat Imports from U.S. Sales loss: 7 MMT! 21: China Agrees to eventual 9.6 MMT TRQ Sales gain: Average: < 1 MMT 3, 2, 1,

198/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1984/1985 1985/1986 1986/1987 1987/1988 1988/1989 1989/199 199/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 215/216 216/217 Select S. Asia Wheat Imports from U.S. 1 MT 6 5 Sales gain: 4 MMT! 4 3 2 1 Imports from U.S. Indonesia Imports from U.S. Taiwan Imports from U.S. Vietnam Imports from U.S. Philippines Imports from U.S. Thailand

198/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1984/1985 1985/1986 1986/1987 1987/1988 1988/1989 1989/199 199/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/211 211/212 212/213 213/214 214/215 215/216 216/217 1 MT 14 Latin America Imports from US 12 1 8 Sales loss 4 MMT! Sales gain: 6 MMT! 6 4 2

Winning is much more fun

MMT Australia Wheat Exports Growth Markets 2. 15. Sales gain: 8 MMT! 1. 5.. China South Asia Subsaharan Africa

Rabobank sees no end to wheat export woes - Australian Financial Review 14-Feb-218 7:7 AM Rabobank has warned the Australian wheat industry there is no end in sight to erosion in market share in South-East Asia after a plunge in exports to start the year. Analysis by Rabobank shows Australia's market share in South-East Asia fell from 6 per cent to 4 per cent in the five years to 216-17 with more pain to come.

1 MT 5, 45, 4, 35, South and Southeast Asia Wheat Imports Imports grow: 2 MMT! 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Wheat TY Imports South Asia Wheat TY Imports Southeast Asia

World Trade 9 MMT 198

World Trade 9 MMT 182 MMT 198 217

World Trade 9 MMT 182 MMT 198 217 27 MMT (est) 25

54 52 5 48 46 44 42 4 38 All Asia Population 215 25 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 All Asia Wheat Consumption +93 M +6 MMT 215 25 7 65 6 55 5 All Asia Wheat Imports +11 MMT *Assumes static India and China Wheat S&D s 215 25

1 MT Wheat Harvested Area Australia, Canada & USA 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Wheat Area Harvested Australia Wheat Area Harvested United States Wheat Area Harvested Canada

1 MT 14, Wheat Production Australia, Canada & USA 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Wheat Production Australia Wheat Production United States Wheat Production Canada

But what about RUSSIA???

9, 8, Russia Wheat Production and Yield 1 MT MT/HA 3.5 3 7, 6, 5, 2.5 2 4, 3, 2, 1, 1.5 1.5 Wheat Production Russia Wheat Yield Russia

1 MT 14 12 Ukraine Major Crops Harvested Area Other crops: + 11 MHA Increase 1 8 Wheat: +/- MHA Increase 6 4 2 Corn Oilseeds Wheat Linear (Wheat)

1 MT 3, Russia Major Crops Harvested Area Wheat: + 3. MHA Increase 25, 2, 15, Other crops: + 6.5 MHA Increase 1, 5, Corn Area Harvested Oilseeds Wheat Linear (Wheat)

Russia Export Markets Middle East & Africa 82% of Russian Exports

Russia Export Markets Middle East and Africa +1.3 Billion more people by 25 Consuming 62 MMT more wheat Importing 5 MMT more wheat

$12/MT US Gulf Japan Panamax rates $7/MT $7/MT $4/MT $45/MT $23/MT

Thank you for the opportunity to share some import ideas together.