A STUDY OF DIAMOND TRADE VIS.-À-VIS. GEMS AND JEWELLERY TRADE AND TOTAL MERCHANDISE TRADE OF INDIA DURING THE LAST DECADE Dr. Neelam Arora I/C Principal and Head of Department, Lala Lajpatrai College of Commerce and Economics, Mumbai, India Email: neelamkill19@yahoo.com ABSTRACT India is one of the world s most competitive and rapidly growing gems and jewellery market. Highly skilled and cheap manpower, along with strong government support in the form of incentives and establishment of SEZs, has been driving market growth for the past few years. Based on various market fundamentals, analysts have forecast CAGR of 14.7% for the gems and jewellery industry in India. Diamonds is one of the most important constituent of gems and jewellery trade of India. Against this background, the present research paper analyses the growth of diamonds trade of India vis-à-vis gems and jewellery trade and exports from India. Keywords: Diamond Trade; Gems and Jewellery Trade; Merchandise Trade INTRODUCTION An Overview of Indian Diamond Industry From ancient times, India is well known in the world as the birthplace of diamonds. It is difficult to trace the origin of diamond but the history says that in the remote past, diamonds were mined only in India. Today, Indian diamond trade mainly consists of import trade whereby rough diamonds are imported into the country mainly for the purpose of cutting and polishing and after processing they are re-exported. Nine out of ten diamonds cut and polished in the world are cut and polished in India. India processes 100mn carats of rough diamonds against the world s total output of 117mn carats of rough diamonds, and is the largest diamond polishing centre. The USA, on the other hand, is the largest market for loose polished diamonds and diamond jewellery. India leads the globe in diamond manufacturing with 60% share in value, 85% in volume and 9% share in the number of pieces produced. China and Thailand are also catching up as centres for diamond cutting and polishing. India spends only US$10 per carat on the polishing and cutting of diamonds, against China's US$17 and South Africa's US$40 to US$60, Belgium, Israel and Russia US$60-80 while United States approximately US$ 100. Thus, per carat cost of processing rough diamonds is lowest in India. Again Indian workers can work in any works environment. The vast resources of manpower combined with "the skill of the Indian artisan" and the "relentless efforts of Indian entrepreneurs who took on the daunting task of setting up this industry" are additional contributors to India's success. 108
OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH PAPER The present paper seeks to achieve the following objectives: 1. To analyse the growth of diamond trade vis.-a-vis. the growth of gems and jewellery sector in India during the last decade.. To analyse the growth of diamond trade vis.-a-vis. the growth of total merchandise trade of India during the last decade. 3. To analyse the Average Annual Growth Rate of Diamond Trade of India in relation to the growth rate of gems and jewellery trade and total merchandise trade of India. 4. To correlate the average annual growth rate of diamond trade of India and average annual growth rate of gems and jewellery sector. Trends in Exports of Cut and Polished Diamonds vis-a-vis Gems and Jewellery Exports and Total Merchandise Exports from India: (001-0 to 011-01) It can be seen in the table No. 1.1 that export of cut and polished diamonds is one of the major constituents of the exports from the gems and jewellery sector. Table 1. Trends in Export of Cut and Polished Diamonds vis-a-vis Gems and Jewellery Exports and Total Merchandise Exports from India (001-0 to 011-01) Cut & Polished Diamonds % of Export of Gems and Jewellery Total Export of Gems & Jewellery Sector % of Total Merchandise Exports Total Merchandise Exports 001-00 598 79.03% 7569 13.65% 4387 00-003 7105 77.55% 916 13.48% 5719 003-004 8603 71.03% 111 13.48% 63843 004-005 11163 71.9% 15658 13.36% 83536 005-006 11831 70.84% 16701 11.48% 103091 006-007 10910 63.58% 17159 8.63% 16414 007-008 1405 67.90% 091 8.71% 16313 008-009 14804 59.47% 4894 8.00% 18595 009-010 1844 61.96% 944 10.1% 178751 010-011 81 65.56% 43048 11.4% 51136 011-01 (P) 3330 49.68% 46957 7.66% 30464 Source: Compiled from the annual reports of GJEPC, 001-00 to 011-01. In the F.Y. 001-0, the export of cut and polished diamonds from India constituted almost 80% of the total exports from the gems and jewellery sector. By the F.Y. 005-006, this proportion gradually fell down to 70% due to an increase in the export of gold jewellery and coloured gem stones, the other major constituents of the gems and jewellery sector. Between the F.Y. 006-007 and F.Y. 010-011, the share of cut and polished diamonds in the total exports from the gems and jewellery sector fluctuated between 60% to 70%. In the FY 011-01, the share of cut and polished diamonds fell down to 50%. The export of cut and polished diamonds constituted almost 14% of the total merchandise exports from India in the F.Y. 001-00. This proportion has fallen to merely 7.66% of the 109
total merchandise exports of India in the F.Y. 011-01. The fall was sharp in the F.Y. 011-01. It is interesting to note that during the last decade the export of gems and jewellery sector as a whole has increased at an average rate of 15% p.a. However, the proportion of cut and polished diamonds in the export basket of gems and jewellery sector has declined during the same period. There are several factor responsible for this fall, prominent among them is the increase in the share of gold jewellery and bottlenecks in the supply of rough diamonds from mines. The share of export of gold jewellery in total exports of gems and jewellery sector has increased from 15% in the F.Y. 001-00 to approximately 35% of the total exports from gems and jewellery sector in the F.Y. 011-01. Observation: It can be concluded from the above analysis that cut and polished diamonds have contributed almost 80% of the exports from gems and jewellery sector at the turn of this century. However, this proportion has gradually come down to 50% of the exports of gems and jewellery sector mainly due to increase in the export of gold jewellery, which constituted only 15% of the total exports from gems and jewellery sector in the F.Y 001-00 and increased to 35% of the exports from gems and jewellery sector during the F.Y. 011-01. Analysis of the Average Annual Growth Rate of Export of Cut and Polished Diamonds from India: (001-0 to 011-01) The Table No. 1. analyses the average annual growth rate of exports of cut and polished diamonds vis-a-vis the average annual growth rate of exports of gems and jewellery and total merchandise exports from India during 001-00 to 011-01. Table. Average Annual Growth Rate of Export of Cut and Polished Diamonds from India (001-0 to 011-01) Export of Cut & Polished Diamonds Average Annual Growth Rate over Previous Exports of Gems and Jewellery Sector Average Annual Growth Rate over Previous Total Merchandise Export Average Annual Growth Rate over Previous 001-00 598-7306 - 4387-00-003 7105 18.77% 9030 3.59 5719 0.9 003-004 8603 1.08% 10573 16.56 63843 1.10 004-005 11163 9.75% 1376 16.47 83536 30.85 005-006 11831 5.98% 1559 15.06 103091 3.41 006-007 10910-7.79% 15983.93 16414.63 007-008 1405 30.0% 1969 3.0 16313 9.05 008-009 14804 3.90% 8411 44.8 18595 13.59 009-010 1844 3.4% 9081.36 178751 3.53 010-011 81 54.69% 40508 39.30 51136 40.50 011-01 (P) 3330-17.33% 46957 15.9 30464 1.30 Source: Compiled from the annual reports of GJEPC, 001-00 to 011-01. 110
It can be seen in the above table that the export of cut and polished diamonds has increased steadily during the last decade at an average annual rate of 0% p.a. with few exceptions. During the F.Y. 00-003 to F.Y. 004-005, the export of cut and polished diamonds increased at an annual rate of almost 0-5% p.a. However, during the F.Y. 005-006 this growth slumped to mere 5.98% and turned into negative at 7.79% during the F.Y. 006-007. There are several reasons for this slump, the prominent among them is the rise in the price of rough diamonds and slackening demand from the US and European countries due to fear of global recession. In the post F.Y. 007-008, diamond exports from India recovered substantially with the onset of a gradual global economic recovery, although a part of the increase was attributed to weaker Indian Rupee. The favourable exchange rate, coupled with higher demand and government incentives, has led to improved liquidity for most diamond processors and jewellery makers. The export of cut and polished diamonds from India revived during the F.Y. 007-008 to jump by over 30% over its previous year. In the F.Y. 008-009, it again turned sluggish to increase by mere 3.9% over its previous year. This sluggishness was marked by rapid increase in the export of gold jewellery. In the F.Y. 009-010 and F.Y. 010-011, the export of cut and polished diamonds revived to rise annually by 3.4% and 54.69% respectively. The provisional figures announced for the financial year 011-01 showed a fall of 17.33% in the annual growth of export of cut and polished diamonds from India. Correlation between Average Annual Growth in the Exports of Cut and Polished Diamonds and Total Exports of Gems and Jewellery Sector from India: (00-03 to 011-01) X Average Annual growth Rate of Export of Cut and Polished Diamonds Y Average Annual growth Rate of Total Exports of Gems and Jewellery Sector Table 3. Correlation between Average Annual Growth in the Exports of Cut and Polished Diamonds and Total Exports of gems and Jewellery Sector from India (00-03 to 011-01) % Growth over Previous F.Y.* (X) % Growth over Previous F.Y.* (Y) XY X Y 00-003 19 4 456 361 576 003-004 1 17 357 441 89 004-005 30 17 510 900 89 005-006 6 15 90 36 5 006-007 8 3 4 64 9 007-008 30 3 690 900 59 008-009 4 44 176 16 1936 009-010 3 46 59 4 010-011 55 39 145 305 151 011-01 (P) 17 16 7 89 56 Total 163 00 4174 6561 5634 Note: *rounded off to nearest unit. Source: Compiled from the annual reports of GJEPC, 001-00 to 011-01. 111
Karl Pearson s Coefficient of Correlation X X Y XY N ) ( X ) ( Y Y N N 163X 00 4174 10 (163) 6561 10 (00) 5634 10 4174 360 6.488X 40.48 914 55.797 0.3619 Interpretation of the results: It can be concluded that there is a weak positive correlation between average annual growth rate of export of cut and polished diamond and total exports of gems and jewellery sector from India. Observation: It is observed in the above analysis that the average annual growth rate of export of cut and polished diamonds from India is independent of the average annual growth rate of total exports from gems and jewellery sector. This is clearly reflected in the years of the US and the European financial crisis. There are several factors that contribute to this independence: 1. Gems and jewellery trade consists of a number of sub-sectors which are independent of each others.. Export of processed diamonds depends mainly on the supply of rough diamonds which are sourced internationally. 3. Processing of diamonds also depends upon the demand from the US and European nations, which are facing a tough time. 4. The Foreign Trade Policy of the Indian government and that of other countries also affect the demand and supply conditions. CONCLUSIONS The following conclusions can be drawn from the above analysis about the diamond trade of India: 1. The cut and polished diamonds have contributed almost 80% of the exports from gems and jewellery sector at the turn of this century. However, this proportion has gradually come down to 50% of the exports of gems and jewellery sector mainly due to increase in the export of gold jewellery, which constituted only 15% of the total exports from gems and jewellery sector in the F.Y 001-00 and increased to 35% of the exports from gems and jewellery sector during the F.Y. 011-01.. There is a weak positive correlation between average annual growth rate of export of cut and polished diamond and total exports of gems and jewellery sector from India. In other words, the average annual growth rate of export of cut and polished diamonds from India is independent of the average annual growth rate of total exports from gems and jewellery sector. REFERENCES 1. Aggarwal Aradhna (007), Impact of Special Economic Zones on Employment, Poverty and Human Development, Indian council for Research on International 11
Economic Relations, New Delhi, May.. Bhagwati, J.N. and Srinivasan T.N. (1975), Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India, New York, Columbia University Press. 3. Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), Annual Reports. 4. Government of India (009), Foreign Trade Policy 009-014, Ministry of Commerce, New Delhi. 5. Government of India (01), Report of Working Group on Boosting India s Manufacturing Exports, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi. 6. Government of India (013), Report of the Task Group for Diamond Sector to make India an International Trading Hub for Rough Diamonds, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Department of Commerce, New Delhi, February. 7. Rud Olivia (009). Business Intelligence Success Factors: Tools for Aligning Your Business in the Global Economy. Hoboken, N.J: Wiley & Sons. 8. Varma M.L. (1990), Gems and Jewellery, in Saxena, Sada Shankar and others (ed.), Thrust Sectors in India s Exports, New Delhi: Common Wealth Publishers. 9. Yin, R.K. (003), Case Study Research: Design and Methods, 3rd Edition, Thousand Oaks, Sage publications Inc. 113