Sourcing Trends & Outlook for 2016 Julia Hughes President, USFIA Gary M. Barraco, Co-Chair USFIA Education and Training Committee
Today s Speakers
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But first, recent news that impacts sourcing decisions All 12 TPP partners signed agreement, and will now work to put it into action. This is especially big for Vietnam and Malaysia, as well as other key sourcing partners. U.S. Customs legislation passed, including new duty-free benefits for Nepal. AGOA and GSP renewed, and U.S. Government is considering adding handbags, travel goods, and some accessories to GSP eligibility list.
Square Meter Equivalents Trade Data In 2015, US imports grew in all categories: 30,000.00 25,000.00 20,000.00 + 6.12% + 6.8% + 8.28% + 6.75% 15,000.00 10,000.00 2014 2015 5,000.00 0.00 Apparel Fabric Made-Ups Yarn Source: OTEXA
Top 2015 Apparel Suppliers to US SME % Share Growth China 11,385.74 41.8% 5.6% Vietnam 3,135.55 11.5% 13.9% Bangladesh 1,869.94 6.8% 16.1% Indonesia 1,264.03 4.6% 1.4% Honduras 1,114.37 4.0% 2.7% Cambodia 1,051.48 3.8% 3.0% India 1,023.54 3.7% 6.9% Mexico 898.40 3.3% -2.0% El Salvador 813.00 2.9% 3.0% Pakistan 590.97 2.1% 0.8%
Trade Data 2016 may be a bumpy ride Imports plunged in March 2016 Apparel down -21% Fabrics down -15% Home textiles & made-ups -29% Source: OTEXA
Apparel Imports Plummeted in March Monthly Rank Growth China -39 % Vietnam -23 % Bangladesh 0.5 % Indonesia -14 % India -0.2 % Honduras -12 % Mexico -7 % Cambodia -36 % El Salvador -4 % Pakistan -13 %
Trend #1: China remains the dominant supplier 8% increase in 2015 China is the dominant supplier to the United States in all categories: 41% of apparel 38% of fabrics 20% of yarns 67% of made-ups
Trend #2: But Vietnam continues to grow. 2 nd largest supplier of apparel to the United States with 11% of market share 3 rd largest supplier of fabrics to the United States with 6.9% of market share Continues to grow, with apparel imports growing by double digits since 2013 until March
Fastest Growing Apparel Suppliers in 2015 18.00% 17.20% 16.17% 16.00% 14.00% 13.98% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Growth Percentage 7.77% 7.16% Growth Percentage
Trend #3: Bangladesh is back. After a decline in 2014, imports grew 16% in 2015, making it the fastest-growing major apparel supplier of the year. Shift in what companies are sourcing from Bangladesh Man-made fiber products Made-ups Home textiles Cotton tablecloths and napkins surging 2000%!
Trend #4: Despite high duties, companies still aren t utilizing free trade programs. Only 14.8% of apparel imports to the United States were duty free in 2015 This is a slight decrease from 2014, when 15% of apparel imports to the United States were duty free The Top 4 suppliers of apparel (China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, & Indonesia) cover 65% of market share with no FTA yet!
2015 Apparel Trade Preference 1% US FTA World Apparel Imports 2015 6% 6% 2% 1% CAFTA FTA NAFTA FTA Jordan FTA QIZ-Egypt 21% Peru FTA 62% South Korea FTA Colombia FTA Bahrain FTA Morocco FTA Israel FTA Oman FTA
What About AGOA? Only 1.3% of apparel imports in 2015 Long-term extension is promoting growth In March apparel imports up 5% Lesotho up 14% Madagascar up 160% Ethiopia up 83%
Spotlight: Vietnam Total imports from Vietnam to the US increased by 9.68% in 2015 Despite the yarn-forward rule of origin, there are real opportunities for Vietnam in TPP. Vietnam s man-made fiber dresses are the 3 rd largest category of apparel imports and will be duty-free upon entry under TPP. There are a number of fibers that are on the TPP Short List that can be used if the fabric doesn t qualify under the yarn-forward ROO.
Spotlight: Malaysia Ranks #21 in US apparel imports. Malaysia s top apparel export to the US is cotton woven men s and boy s shirts. TPP includes a provision to allow dress shirts from Vietnam and Malaysia to immediately go to zero duties upon entry into force. The TPP Short Supply List allows for most cotton fabrics used in dress shirts to be sourced from anywhere in the world.
Spotlight: Nepal In February, Congress approved new duty-free benefits for Nepal. The ITC review of these benefits is currently underway. Preferential treatment will remain in effect until 12/31/2025 and includes a variety of textile items, including travel goods (Ch. 42), most hats and headwear, some gloves, blankets, knit shawls, scarves and headbands.
Spotlight: Handbags, Wallets & Flat Goods These products might soon see new duty-free opportunities. Duty-Free on Day One of TPP! International Trade Commission reviewing GSP and considering adding them to the list. Several TPP and GSP countries are among the top producers. India is the #2 supplier to the US for cotton handbags. Philippines and Cambodia rank #5 and 6 respectively.
WTO and Global Outlook EU imports equal 37% of the world s clothing The top three world apparel importers EU, United States, Japan imported almost 2/3 of all apparel in 2014 China is the largest world textile exporter, supplying more than 1/3 of all textiles. The EU is close behind supplying nearly ¼ of the worlds textiles.
F O R M O R E I N F O R M AT I O N, C O N TA C T Julia K. Hughes President jhughes@usfashionindustry.com Christina Anderson Marketing & Membership canderson@usfashionindustry.com www.usfashionindustry.com @usfashion