Gathering Momentum Trends and Prospects for Fine Merino Wool Chris Wilcox Chairman, Market Intelligence Committee International Wool Textile Organisation Executive Director, National Council of Wool Selling Brokers of Australia Balmoral Sire Evaluation Group 2016 Field Day 8 th April 2016
Messages Ø Total world and Australian wool production low BUT higher superfine wool production Ø Wool prices perform better than prices for other commodities BUT narrow margins for superfine wool Ø Some positives, some negatives for short term demand BUT demand for superfine wool growing AND longer term demand trends and prospects positive
Wool Production Flat, Stocks Low mkg clean 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Production Opening stocks 2015 production 1,166 mkg clean 2016 production 1,148 mkg clean 2017 production 1,154 mkg clean 70 year lows Stocks:Use ratio ~11% Source: Poimena Analysis and International Wool Textile Organisation Note: The year refers to the season ending eg 2000 = 1999/2000 Data in 2015 is an estimate and data in 2016 and 2017 is a forecast Updated March 2016
Australian Sheep Numbers and Shorn Wool Production Remain Low Wool (mkg greasy) Sheep (million) 2015/16 production 120 7% 600 500 Wool Sheep 100 to 322 mkg greasy 400 300 200 100 0 80 60 40 20 0 2016/17 production 320 mkg greasy Lowest since 1923/24 Source: Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee, ABS, ABARES Wool production is shorn wool; sheep numbers are as at 1 st July Updated for forecast March 2016
Superfine Wool Production Pulls Back from Peak mkg clean 80 60 40 mkg clean WORLD % of Total Clip % of total 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% mkg clean 80 60 40 mkg clean AUSTRALIA % of Total Clip % of total 30% 25% 20% 15% 20 2% 1% 20 10% 5% 0 0% 0 0% Source: Poimena Analysis, AWTA, NZWTA, Cape Wools, FLA, Delta, American Sheep Industries, China Wool Textile Association. Updated March 2016
Medium Merino Wool Production Drops Australian Wool Production by Micron Range Shares % share 100% 18.5um & finer 18.6-20.5 um 20.6-24.5 um 24.6um and broader 75% 50% 25% 0% 1991/92 1994/95 1997/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f Source: Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee and Australian Wool Testing Authority Updated: March 2016
Micron Price Differentials Narrow for Superfine Wool % difference relative to 21 micron wool Month and year 18 micron 19 micron 23 micron 26 micron 28 micron Merino Cardings July 1999 +125% +88% -22% -29% -29% na July 2005 +30% +18% -3% -25% -38% -50% July 2015 +8% +4% -2% -21% -32% -22% 10 year average +27% +14% -5% -31% -45% -37% 5 year average +14% +7% -4% -30% -43% -34% March 2016 +9% +4% -2% -28% -39% -19% Source: AWEX
Wool Outperforms Other Commodities % change March 2016 vs March 2015 US$ base % change y-o-y 15% 10% 5% Other Commodities 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Wool -25% -30% 18 micron 21 micron 26 micron Merino cardings Interiors Wool Cashmere Cotton Polyester Staple Acrylic Oil Metals Source: AWEX, The Economist, CotLook, PCI Fibres Prices to March 2016 Interiors Wool NZ Crossbred wool
Demand - Drivers and Prospects 2015/16 and 2016/17 Mixed economic growth in 2015-2017 Solid in US and UK, improving in Europe and Japan China slowing and in transition a key for wool Positive consumer confidence in the US, Europe and Japan BUT disappointing results for retail sales in some countries Strong demand for double-faced woollen fabric will it continue? Wool textile industry stocks now under control? High price ratio for wool against cotton prices and synthetic fibres does it matter? US$ predicted to be strong against A$, but how accurate are the forecasters? Positives but risks
Clothing Retail Sales in the Major Wool Consuming Countries % change y-o-y 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-Jan 2014 2015 China +25.8% +25.1% +17.7% +11.5% +10.8% +9.5% +8.9% +6.6% USA +6.0% +3.4% +0.9% +1.3% +1.1% +3.8% +5.1% +1.5% Japan -6.3% +3.2% -0.4% -0.7% -0.5% -2.3% -1.0% -3.3% Germany +1.2% +0.9% -0.3% +0.1% +1.3% +2.6% +2.1% +1.6% UK +5.4% +3.3% +1.5% +3.1% +5.2% +1.6% -1.0% +0.2% Italy +0.8% -1.1% -2.3% -2.1% -1.3% +0.8% -1.1% +0.7% France +2.8% +1.7% +0.6% +1.1% +1.2% +2.9% +1.6% +2.0% South Korea +9.8% +8.6% +3.2% +0.8% +1.6% +3.5% +0.7% +5.6% Source: Government statistical bureaus. Notes: Value of retail sales. China is for retail sales of garments, hats, footwear and knitwear. Japan is for major department stores. Germany, Italy, France and South Korea is total retail sales.
The Craze for Double-Faced Woollen Fabric in China Woollen fabric uses shorter wools (cardings etc.) as well as crossbred wool Double-faced fabric is two pieces of woollen fabric knitted together during production, each of a different colour or shade Garment doesn t need a lining Fabric used mainly for women s coats for China market for sale in Fall/Winter 2015
Wool Textile Industry Stock Levels Pull Back from Highs Well above normal 5 Above normal 4 Normal 3 Below normal 2 Early Stage Proc Spinning Weaving Knitting Well below normal 1 Garment making 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 April 2014 Interior textiles 2014 April 2015 2015 March 2016 End 2016f Source: IWTO Wool Textile Business Survey Weighted results for China, Italy, Germany, Uruguay, Mongolia, Argentina, South Africa, Japan, France, Spain and the United Kingdom
What about the longer term? Growing demand for fine Merino wool Long-term prospects for wool depend on global economic conditions and income growth, not relative production with other fibres Demand for business-wear for men will continue to be a mainstay for wool Knitwear a growth area, particularly with increased demand for active leisurewear and casual garments Coats the best performers in womenswear for wool Trade in other women s wool clothing continues to fall
Demand for Fine and Superfine Wool Rising Australian wool exports by value A$ million 3000 2500 2000 19um & finer 20-23um 25um & broader 1500 1000 500 0 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Poimena Analysis Data to January 2016 12 month rolling aggregate
World Production of Wool and of Competing Fibres: Wool Cannot Compete on Volume '000 tonnes 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 Wool Cellulosics '000 tonnes 30000 25000 20000 15000 3000 2000 1000 0 10000 5000 0 Cotton Synthetic staple Source: CIRFS, USDA, Poimena Analysis, IWTO Market Information Report 2015 Note: For wool and cotton the years are seasonal years i.e. 2011 = 2010/11 season
Wool Price Ratios With Other Fibres Rises to New Level Price Ratio 7.0 6.0 Wool:cotton 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Wool:synthetic fibres 1.0 0.0 Jul-95 Jul-97 Jul-99 Jul-01 Jul-03 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Source: AWEX, Cotton Outlook, PCI Fibres, CIRFS, Poimena Analysis Compared with 21 micron wool. Data to March 2016
Apparel Wool Consumption Rises as Incomes Lift 0.7 Wool consumption (clean kg/per head) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 India China Turkey Russia 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Income (US$/head) Italy Spain Japan S Korea France UK Australia Germany Trend Line USA Source: International Monetary Fund and Woolmark Apparel wool consumption is apparel NDA at retail average 2012-2014 as estimated by Poimena Analysis. Income is US$ GDP per head in 2015 on a purchasing power parity basis.
World Trade in Wool Clothing in 2014 (% share) 14% 8% 40% 6% 13% 10% 9% sweaters Men's suits Men's overcoats Men's jackets Men's trousers Other women's wear Women's overcoats Source: IWTO Market Information 2015 Report, Foreign Trade Statistics, International Trade Centre, Poimena Analysis & Delta Consultants
Product Segment Prospects: Growth opportunities for fine Merino wool Growth Mainstay Decline
Messages Gathering Momentum Ø Total world and Australian wool production low BUT higher superfine wool production Ø Wool prices perform better than prices for other commodities BUT narrow margins for superfine wool Ø Some positives, some negatives for short term demand BUT demand for superfine wool growing AND longer term demand trends and prospects positive
Thank You!