1 Textiles Monitor (Inventory & Equipment) 1
Trend 1 Tracker NOLVs: NOLVs were mixed in the fourth quarter based on companyspecific factors, as no industry-wide trends emerged. Vendor pricing has been mixed and sales have been flat, resulting in NOLV changes impacted primarily by inventory management. Sales Trends: Sales have been consistent for both textiles and apparel based on modest improvement in demand and incremental declines in pricing to customers. Used Pricing: Overall pricing is consistent. Some pieces of equipment are seeing upward trends in pricing because there have been several private transactions that GA has been made aware of, specifically within the non-woven sector. Used Trade: Manufacturers and remarketers were only focused on high demand equipment as the year neared completion. Older machines have fallen off about 20% in the secondary marketplace while middle-aged to new- has remained stable. Gross Margin: Gross margin has been mixed for both textiles and apparel, with certain companies experiencing lower vendor pricing, offset by lower pricing to customers; pricing has been consistent in most cases. Product mix and customer concentration have had the largest impact on gross margins. Inventory Textiles: Textiles inventory has been decreasing based on focuses on inventory management among companies and some declines in synthetic fiber prices. Apparel: Inventory levels have increased based on seasonal factors, despite year-over-year declines. OEM Pricing: Prices have stayed relatively consistent as there is very little equipment purchasing; therefore, there are no sales or price fluctuations. Technology Advancement: GA has not seen much, if any, new technology entering the marketplace. Auction Activity: GA has observed that the activity is primarily in private transactions. There have not been any notable public liquidations. Pricing: Pricing has been mixed for both textiles and apparel. Over the past three months, cotton and natural gas pricing has increased, but crude oil prices have declined. Despite these recent fluctuations, lags in pricing from international suppliers have delayed much of the impact of pricing changes, as many companies cited cotton costs actually declining at the time the appraisal was conducted. 1
Overview 2 Tempered optimism continues as the current outlook for the domestic textiles industry. According to a recent projection from Textile World, compiled industry data suggests that 2013 offered a generally positive showing, setting the stage for a modestly bright outlook for 2014. Although industry experts are quick to note that large-scale industry gains are unlikely, a wide range of factors suggest that the U.S. textiles industry is poised for steady growth in coming years. According to Textile World, 2013 witnessed an increase in shipments of basic mill products, including fibers and fabrics, of nearly 2%, with an average increase in textile mill efficiency of approximately 3% to 4% in recent years. Additionally, the gap between U.S. and foreign manufacturing costs continues to shrink, propelled by rising labor costs in China. These improvements, coupled with the energy advantages offered by recent fracking breakthroughs, as well as numerous examples of product innovation exhibited by domestic manufacturers, indicate that the U.S. textile industry is not in the dire straits witnessed just a few years ago. The news is not all bright, as industry experts warn that the domestic market will continue to face challenges in the form of foreign manufacturers. Although Chinese labor costs are on the rise, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka remain low-cost options and instances of manufacturers returning to the U.S. are marginal at best. However, as a Made in the USA label continues to show strength in the consumer market, domestic growth, though moderate, is likely going forward. The figure below illustrates the producer price index, which denotes the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, for textile mills versus textile product mills. Textile mills include a variety of processes such as yarn spinning; primary textile products manufacturing; intermediate yarn processes such as carding, combing, texturing, twisting; fabric and thread weaving and braiding; and production of nonwoven fabrics and textile finishing for both cotton and synthetic fibers. Textile product mills include carpet and rug mills; curtain and drapery mills; various household textile product mills; canvases; cordage mills; and other downstream textile processes and products. 129.0 128.5 128.0 127.5 127.0 126.5 126.0 125.5 Producer Price Indexes Textile Mills versus Textile Product Mills February 2013 through January 2014 2
Recent 3 Appraisal Trends While the overall outlook for textiles is quite steady, and the memory of sky-rocketing prices of 2011 is fading, GA has still witnessed fluctuations in NOLVs of up to four points, mostly as a result of companyspecific issues, such as a changes in inventory mix or increases in slow-moving inventory. Sales were largely flat, though a few companies reported modest increases in volume; these were mostly offset by average costs and pricing being higher in 2012 compared to 2013. The modest changes in cotton and synthetic costs are not resulting in significant changes to gross margin for most textile companies, most of which consume raw materials quickly, limiting exposure to price changes. Furthermore, a large portion of textile businesses are make to order, and companies currently maintain a much lower tolerance for fixed pricing contracts than they did in prior years. As always, even in relatively stable markets, individual companies demonstrate unique occurrences and shifts, which can have a meaningful impact on NOLVs. The age of a company s inventory, the levels of slow-moving inventory, and overall mix can shift quickly, and the exposure to certain customers, or regions, or markets, and these metrics should continue to be monitored. Often, these risks can be mitigated by a well-set-up borrowing base which segments buckets of inventory, including slow-moving. The majority of companies that GA has worked with have demonstrated a focus on inventory management in recent months, leading to declines in overall levels. In the most recent quarter, the shifts in NOLVs that GA witnessed were more pronounced than prior quarters, shifting over four points in either direction. One company in particular maintained a heavy concentration of sales to its top customers, which included some underperforming retailers. These very specific issues are difficult to predict, which is why GA will provide alternate scenarios to account for a sharp decline in current customer participation, a consideration when there is a heavy concentration to a handful of customers. While no definitive trends emerged, GA did witness some distributors exhibiting better margins than the prior year, as costs of imported apparel, with long lead times, have decreased slightly on average compared to the prior year, with pricing to customers declining less. With distributors importing product from overseas with such lead times, changes in pricing from vendors farther upstream are often delayed. Resulting gains in gross margins and NOLVs have been modest over the past quarter. Domestic suppliers of apparel, especially consumer apparel, often have large concentrations of sales within a few top customers. These relationships should continue to be monitored, as any deterioration can have a substantial impact on a company s NOLVs. With apparel, depending on the specific end market, aging can be one of the most important indicators for a distributor and should be monitored closely. Specifically, the winter months typically experience increases in inventory levels due to seasonal buildups, and this year was no different, despite modest year-over-year declines; these inventory builds add to the potential for aged inventory later in the year. 3
Pricing 4 Trends Cotlook recently released its world raw cotton production forecast for the 2014-2015 season, predicting an output of over 25.2 million tonnes. The forecast represents a modest increase from prior-year totals. Production for the U.S. is predicted to increase from 2.9 million tonnes in 2013 to 3.5 million tonnes in the current year. Increases in production are also projected for the African Franc Zone, Turkey, and Brazil, which will offset declines from major players China and India. Worldwide consumption is predicted to rise 477 thousand tonnes in the coming year, to 23.5 million tonnes. With the increase in consumption outpacing the modest production improvement, demand may put upward pressure on pricing. The net change in stock is predicted to total 1.3 million tonnes. With continued stability on the retail front, cotton prices are likely to remain relatively buoyant throughout 2014. Pickups in demand at the consumer level resulted in a recent increase in cotton prices. The Cotlook A index increased from a monthly average of $0.85 per pound in November 2013 to $0.91 per pound in January 2014. The Cotlook index represents the average of the five cheapest quotations for principal upland cottons traded on the international market: $0.96 Monthly Average Cotlook "A" Index Pricing Trend February 2013 through January 2014 $ per Pound $0.94 $0.92 $0.90 $0.88 $0.86 $0.84 Pricing on the polyester market has been soft in recent months based on weak market dynamics in the Far East. Most buyers on the polyester market have been bearish, resulting in price declines throughout the industry. Market prices for polyester staple fiber have formed a downward trajectory since the New Year. Likewise, weak downstream demand pushed prices for feedstock paraxylene and purified terephthalic acid lower over the past two months. The price declines may be traced back to weakness in crude oil markets, which experienced downward pricing pressures during the first months of 2014. Nylon market sentiment has been close to that of its polyester counterpart, with market softness prevalent throughout the supply chain. Price declines have been experienced by feedstocks such as benzene and caprolactam, while nylon filament yarn and chips have demonstrated a touch more resiliency, despite modest decreases. Overall, flat to slightly bearish market dynamics have been commonplace on the man-made fiber market, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that these products have shown an average annual price increase of less than 1% over the past 30 years. 4
Pricing 5 Trends As mentioned, consumer sentiment is relatively healthy, which has been reflected in the domestic apparel industry. According to Textile World, fiber pricing has remained within reason over the past year, aiding margins, and textile and apparel export totals suggested modest increases in international demand. After decades spent in the doldrums, the domestic apparel market posted its second straight year of positive results, particularly within the menswear segment. With an increase in gross domestic product predicted for 2014, it is likely that the apparel sector will continue its strong run of form. Consumer confidence has advanced for two consecutive months, setting the stage for continued optimism. Holiday retail sales improved 3.8% in 2013, based on data released by the National Retail Federation; clothing and clothing accessories sales demonstrated a 1.8% year-over-year increase in December 2013 and a 4.7% month-to-month improvement on an unadjusted basis. Yarn spinners have indicated a noticeable uptick in orders, which correlates to stronger demand at the retail apparel level. Total textile and apparel shipments for 2014 are expected to build upon 2013 s results, reaching toward $72 billion. The figure below illustrates the apparel producer price index, which denotes the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. As is demonstrated in the graph below, U.S. customers continue to pay a premium for American-made apparel. In addition, decreasing material costs have not yet impacted the price of apparel received by domestic manufacturers. 111.0 Apparel Producer Price Index February 2013 through January 2014 110.5 110.0 109.5 109.0 108.5 5
Textiles 6 Equipment The North American textile industry in recent years has been in a state of decline, with machinery auctions and liquidations rarely occurring domestically due to an oversaturation of product within the secondary marketplace. With newer and cheaper imports available for purchase, the majority of textile machinery in North America is sold internationally. The textile industry within the United States over the last eight months has seen an influx in direct investment from foreign companies. Over $700 million has recently been invested in new U.S. textile facilities and equipment. Gildan Activewear Inc., one of North America s most recent and largest foreign investors, has invested $250 million. These investments are slated to have an effect on jobs and manufacturing across the nation, particularly in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana. Recently, a few textile manufacturers have increased their focus on the United States as a major option when considering competitive energy, transportation, and fiber costs. Another key driver in recent investment has been the success of U.S. trade policy in the textile sector, which has implemented stringent duty-free policies requiring much of the assembly production process to take place domestically. By focusing on more specialized and niche markets, some North American textile manufacturers have used this adaptation to combat the decline in this industry in the recent past. New automated technology has created greater efficiency in the workplace with the higher quality and speed of production these machines bring to the table. While lower quality and priced items still remain largely overseas, North American textile manufacturers have an advantage in the non-woven textile sector as these higher end products require more advanced technology and greater skill to produce. While an uptick in equipment purchasing is anticipated, the secondary market has remained relatively flat over the past several years. At present, an introduction of large quantities of used equipment in the market would not be expected to be wholly absorbed by the North American market, and would necessitate the marshalling of a large amount of equipment overseas. In order to yield the maximum recovery of investments in the liquidation of textile and apparel machinery, a worldwide marketing effort would have to occur in order to successfully manage an inundated market. Until a major change is finally realized, it remains imperative for the North American textile industry to produce increasingly more and more advanced technology in order to stay competitive. Further improvements in production time and innovations in the non-woven sector will continue to positively affect North America s position within the international market. Textiles and Apparel Reference Sheet Pricing trend changes for January 2014 versus December 2013 and the fourth quarter of 2013 are as follows: Commodity From December 2013 % Change From Q4 2013 Average Cotton 5% 5% Synthetic Fiber Feedstocks Crude Oil (3%) (3%) Natural Gas 11% 18% 6
Experience 7 GA has been involved in the liquidation of select industrial manufactures and wholesalers such as Atlas Textiles, Garment Services, Seatco, and Textile Alliance, store locations for Jo-Ann Fabrics, Hancock Fabrics, and A.C. Moore, and numerous apparel retail stores such as Kids Mart, Clothestime, Mervyns, and Eddie Bauer. Other industrial machinery and equipment liquidations include Alfani Shirts, Barth & Dreyfus, Belding Hausman, Linens & Things, Rock and Republic Jeans, Teddi of California, and Textile Alliance. GA has worked with and appraised numerous companies within the apparel and textiles industry, including industry leaders within each category. While our appraisal clients remain confidential, GA s extensive list of appraisal experience includes: One of the world s largest integrated producers of synthetic fibers, with annual net sales exceeding $3.0 billion. A manufacturer of cotton-nylon greige fabrics used in the design of military and fire retardant apparel. One of the largest manufacturers of performance synthetic fabrics, offering over 480 styles of synthetic fabric with varying weights, textures, and technical functions. One of the world s leading manufacturers of performance synthetic fabrics, offering over 480 styles of synthetic fabric in varying weights and textures. A wholesale distributor of imprintable apparel, including t-shirts, fleece apparel, sports shirts, headwear, and athletic wear, with net sales exceeding $700 million annually. A designer and manufacturer of various home textiles, including linens, sheets, towels, aprons, uniforms, curtains, and pillows, among many others. An industry leader in textile and chemical products, which include denim, dyed fabrics, and flame retardant fabrics for use in apparel and home furnishings. One of the U.S. s foremost producers of retail fabrics, specialty fabrics, and craft products, manufacturing goods in a wide variety of synthetic fibers. Producers of various apparel types, including headwear, sweaters, and sporting apparel. A manufacturer of tufted carpets from synthetic fibers serving residential and commercial applications. GA also maintains appraisal experience involving more regionalized and specialized companies, allowing for the utmost depth in our valuations: Textile spinning mills producing fabric for the apparel, automotive, and home textile industries. Distributors of fabrics for furniture, apparel, and other applications. Manufacturers and distributors of cotton, polyester, nylon, and acrylic fibers and specialty fabrics for various industries. Spinners of cotton yarn. Manufacturers and distributors of apparel, rugs, and other woven fabric products. Manufacturers of performance synthetic fabrics. Retailers of textile products and apparel. GA has also conducted a wide variety of appraisals of textile machinery. Some of the most recent appraisals included a large producer of polyester and nylon yarns; several non-woven textile manufacturers from a variety of industrial sectors; carpet manufacturers; and manufacturers of apparel and other fibers and fabrics. In addition to our vast liquidation and appraisal experience, GA maintains contacts within the Textile and Apparel industry that we utilize for insight and perspective on recovery values. 7
Monitor 8 Information The Textiles Monitor relates information covering most textile and apparel products, including industry trends, market pricing, and their relation to the valuation process. GA provides our customer base with a concise document highlighting the textiles and apparel industry. Due to the commodity nature of certain textile products, as well as the commodity nature of inputs used in synthetic fiber production, timely reporting is necessary to understand an ever-changing marketplace. GA strives to contextualize important indicators in order to provide a more in-depth perspective of the market as a whole. GA internally tracks recovery ranges for cotton fabrics and apparel, greige goods, specialty textiles, synthetic fibers such as nylon and polyester, and a wide variety of apparel in all price points, but we are mindful to adhere to your request for a simple reference document. GA welcomes the opportunity to make our expertise available to you in every possible way. Should you need any further information or wish to discuss recovery ranges for a particular segment, please feel free to contact your GA Business Development Officer using the contact information shown in this and all Textiles Monitor issues. GA s Textiles Monitor provides market value and industry trend information for a variety of textile and apparel products. The information contained herein is based on a composite of GA s industry expertise, contact with industry personnel, liquidation and appraisal experience, and data compiled from a variety of well-respected sources believed to be reliable. We do not guarantee the completeness of such information or make any representation as to its accuracy. 8
Appraisal 9 & Valuation Team Mike Marchlik National Sales & Marketing Director mmarchlik@greatamerican.com (818) 746-9306 Mark Weitz President mweitz@greatamerican.com (818) 884-3737 Ryan Mulcunry Executive Vice President - Northeast Region, Canada & Europe rmulcunry@greatamerican.com (617) 692-8310 David Seiden Executive Vice President, Southeast Region dseiden@greatamerican.com (770) 551-8114 Bill Soncini Senior Vice President, Midwest Region bsoncini@greatamerican.com (312) 777-7945 Drew Jakubek Managing Director, Southwest Region djakubek@greatamerican.com (972) 996-5632 Jennie Kim Vice President, Western Region jkim@greatamerican.com (818) 746-9370 Gordon Titley Director of Valuations, GA Europe Valuations Limited gtitley@gaeurope.co.uk +44 (0) 20 7318-0574 Ken Bloore Chief Operating Officer kbloore@greatamerican.com (818) 884-3737 Eric Campion Associate Project Manager, Textile and Apparel Specialist ecampion@greatamerican.com (781) 429-4068 Marc Musitano Chief Operating Officer mmusitano@greatamerican.com (818) 884-3737 Michael Petruski Executive Vice President, General Manager mpetruski@greatamerican.com (818) 884-3737 Brian Seeley Director of Appraisal bseeley@greatamerican.com (646) 381-9254 About Great American Group Great American Group is a leading provider of asset disposition solutions and valuation and appraisal services to a wide range of retail, wholesale and industrial clients, as well as lenders, capital providers, private equity investors, and professional services firms. GA also offers the UK Retail Monitor via its subsidiary, GA Europe Valuations Limited. Headquarters 21860 Burbank Blvd. Suite 300 South Woodland Hills, CA 91367 800-45-GREAT www.greatamerican.com 9