NW Bicester Masterplan

Transcription

1 NW Bicester Masterplan Economic Baseline 21 March 2014

2 NW Bicester Masterplan Economic Baseline 21 March 2014

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary... i 1. Introduction Population, demographics and labour supply Employment and labour demand Business performance and competiveness Education, Skills and Training Social inclusion and social infrastructure Welfare and Community

4 Executive Summary 1. The economic baseline is intended to inform the economic strategy for the NW Bicester master planning for the main development. It is based on published data sources 1 at national, regional and local scales, and includes information specifically for Bicester where available. Table 1: Key findings in relation to indicators Indicator Key findings Population, demographics and labour supply (Chapter 3) Characteristics of the local and subregional population Economic activity rates The 2011 Census showed there were a total of 30,854 people living in Bicester Town, this shows a 7.6% increase since the 2001 Census where the population was 28,665. The town also has a high proportion of working age residents (67%), above the district (64.7%), county (65.4%), sub regional (65.2%) and national (64.8%) averages. There are a total of 141,868 people living in Cherwell, a 7.7% increase compared with 131,772 in ONS Mid-year population estimates show over the last decade ( ), the population of the district has grown by 7.8%. There are a total of 18,225 working aged residents economically active in Bicester Town (88% of all working aged residents) figures for working aged residents economically active are higher than the Cherwell, Oxfordshire, sub-regional and national averages. 1 Available at the time of production (July 2013). i

5 Indicator Migration and existing commuting patterns across the sub-region Population and labour supply forecasts Key findings More people commute out of Bicester to work with Oxford as the single most popular destination than commute in from elsewhere. A relatively high proportion of out commuters are in professional and technical and administrative and secretarial occupations. Based on 2008 projections (i.e. not taking into account the NW Bicester proposals), over the next 20 years the population of Cherwell is expected to increase by 14% - an average of approximately 1,000 per year. In contrast, the working age population is expected to increase by only 2,000 people between 2010 and 2031 a rate of increase which is well below the SE regional or national averages. Put differently, the total population will include 6.7% less people of working age by 2031 than it does now. Employment and labour demand (Chapter 4) Employment rates Of the 18,225 working aged residents economically active in Bicester Town, 17,010 are in employment (82% of the working age population). Again, this proportion is higher than the district, county, sub-regional and national averages. By comparison, in 2001, the rate was 81%, where 16,925 were in employment. ii

6 Indicator Employment distribution across sectors identifiable growth sectors Occupational distribution of employment Part-time versus full-time employment Key findings Bicester has a relatively high proportion of employment in manufacturing and retail and a relatively low proportion in Financial and insurance activities. In Bicester, approximately one in five employees work in the retail trade, whilst 12% work in Manufacturing and 11% work in the Health and social work sector. In terms of potential growth sectors, the Environmental Goods and Services (EGS) sector and the construction and high value construction sectors are not strongly represented in Bicester. The same is also true for auto engineering, highperformance engineering and knowledge intensive manufacturing but these sectors are strongly represented across Oxfordshire as whole (these findings are based on ABI data, and are at variance with the observation that there are a number of firms linked to the motorsport sector in Bicester. Unfortunately, ABI data is notoriously unreliable for small areas due to sampling errors, but it is the best employment data available.) Bicester does however demonstrate a relative degree of strength in the logistics sector, which constitutes 13% of total employment within Bicester, which is higher than Cherwell (7%) and Oxfordshire (5%). Just over a quarter of residents (26.6%) of Bicester s residents are in the top occupational codes (managerial and professional), this figure is lower than the district, county, sub regional and national averages. 21.3% of Bicester Town s population works part time, which is lower than the district (24.3%), county (23.9%), sub regional (24.1%) and national averages (26.2%). Self-employment Self-employment in Bicester Town (7.8%) is below the Cherwell (10.3%), Oxfordshire (10.46%), sub regional (10.0%) the national average (9.8%). Vacancies across key sectors Vacancies in Cherwell are relatively concentrated in manufacturing, and also in distribution, hotels and restaurants. iii

7 Indicator Employment growth forecasts for the region and sub-region Key findings The latest employment projections for Cherwell were produced in 2005, pre recession. They predict an increase in employment in Cherwell of 15,000 between the years 2006 and This equates to an increase of 16.3% over the 20 year period, compared to 15.4% for the SE region as a whole. In contrast, regional forecasts produced post recession are much lower, predicting a 2% increase in employment over a 12 year period Business performance and competitiveness (Chapter 5) Business start-up activity company births and deaths, VAT registrations across the sub-region Business survival rates and business incubation activity Skills gaps and skills shortages The number of active enterprises in Cherwell relative to the working population (681.9 per 10,000 WAP) is marginally lower than that of Oxfordshire (683.6) but higher than the sub regional (677.7) and national (594.5) averages. The number of new enterprises per 10,000 population in Cherwell (64.9 per 10,000 WAP) is lower than both the county (65.2), sub regional (65.4) and national averages (67.7). Business survival rates in Cherwell are relatively high after 1 year (98.3%), compared with Oxfordshire (97.0%), sub regional (97.0%) and national (96.5%) rates. In the longer term up to 5 years survival rates for Cherwell (50.0%) remain above the sub regional (48.1%) and national (44.8%) averages, but below the Oxfordshire average (52.5%). In October 2012 there were 1,252 job centre vacancies in Cherwell, 76% of these were for full time vacancies. A higher proportion of Job Centre vacancies in Cherwell are in elementary occupations, compared to comparator districts, and a low proportion are in professional and technical occupations. However, figures provided by Oxfordshire County Council show that the highest percentage of job vacancies within the wider Bicester area for the first seven months of 2013 were in sales and customer service occupations (15%), closely followed by professional and technical occupations. iv

8 Indicator Availability of business space and premises Hard and soft infrastructure Incidence of environmentally sustainable and low-carbon business practice Key findings Very little modern business space or land allocated for business uses is available in Bicester currently, This is a concern among property agents and others who are seeking to meet the needs of local firms and inward investors. However, the draft Cherwell Local Plan proposes the allocation of a large amount of business space in and around the town, including but by no means limited to the NW Bicester site. The firms interviewed in our previous work (SQW, 2011) considered that business networks were generally adequate, and a few reported that they had been useful for securing valuable contracts locally. Firms concerns about hard infrastructure were focused on transport, energy supply and broadband. Firms considered Bicester to be very well located in relation the national road and rail network, but had concerns about congestion at Junction 9 of the M40, and a lack of parking for both HGVs and employees. Concerns about energy and broadband mainly concerned the unreliability of supply in some locations, and in relation to energy some firms had had to install back-up generators. Per capita CO2 emissions are relatively high (8.5t), although this is mostly industrial and commercial. Much of this may be related to a high average level of commercial and industrial gas consumption. Per capita reduction since 2005 appears to be strong, but it is unclear whether this is due to increasing efficiency or the closure of some high emission businesses. v

9 Indicator Key findings Education, skills, qualifications and training (Chapter 6) Education attainment Ongoing participation in training by the working age population Participation in education and training by year olds Nature and levels of various skills/qualifications within the working age population Training provision Results for 2012 show that GCSE attainment levels, those achieving A to C grades, for Cherwell (81.0%) was higher than the average for Oxfordshire (76.6%), but lower than the South East regional (82.0%) and national average (83.2%). Data for Bicester is not complete but shows that the figure for Bicester East ward (88.7%), is higher than all other averages, whereas the figure for Bicester Town ward (61.9%) is lower than all other averages. 21.2% of the working age population of Cherwell had on average ( ) participated in job related training. This was lower than the county (24.0%), sub regional (25.1%), national (26.5%). 55% (766) of year old in the Bicester wider area (2011/12) were participating in post 16 education. 2012/13 data shows that around year olds had started participating in apprenticeships. Bicester has a relatively high proportion of its working population with Level 1 or 2 qualifications Bicester Town s working age population with no qualifications (17.5%) is above that of the rest of Oxfordshire (16.7%) but below that of the sub-region (18.7%) and the national average (22.5%). 26.2% of Bicester Town s working age population have NVQ4+ qualifications, lower than the district (28.1%), county (35.7%), sub regional (31.3%) and national (27.4%) averages. Bicester College specialises largely in motorsports, with some provision also in sustainable energy and building services. Training related to Bicester s other employment strengths (e.g. in retail, wholesale and other manufacturing) is provided at sister colleges in Banbury and Oxford. vi

10 Indicator Key findings Social inclusion and social infrastructure (Chapter 7) Unemployment rates Social exclusion indicators Index of Multiple Deprivation domains Access to services and key forms of social infrastructure Average earnings and the incidence of low incomes Bicester Town has a low unemployment rate (2.9% of the working age population) compared with the Cherwell (3.2%), Oxfordshire (3.1%), sub regional (4.0%) and national (5.0%) averages. 15 out of 23 of Bicester s wider area geography Lower Super Output Areas (Census terminology) fall within the least deprived 20% in the country, and none fall within the most deprived 20%. There are a number of GP surgeries within Bicester which are accepting new patients. Dental practices, pharmacies and opticians are largely clustered in the town centre. Bicester Community Hospital provides 12 beds, intermediate care, GP admissions, therapist outreach and an out-of-hours minor injuries unit. Bicester s primary schools have a surplus capacity of 13% (534 places), and the secondary schools have 420 surplus capacity places. Bicester Leisure Centre offers a swimming pool, teaching pool, crèche, sports hall, activity hall, squash courts etc. Bicester has a fire station and a police station. The closest ambulance station is some 12km to the North at Brackley. Gross weekly pay per worker in Cherwell and the surrounding area is less than per resident. This implies Cherwell residents commute out to relatively higher paid jobs, and in-commuters to Cherwell receive relatively lower paid jobs. This difference between resident and workplace pay is greater in Cherwell than in surrounding districts. In Cherwell there is difference in weekly pay between resident and workplace pay of 47.5 compared to a difference of 21.4 for Oxfordshire. vii

11 Indicator Key findings Welfare and community (Chapter 8) Health-related characteristics of the population Characteristics of the housing stock Characteristics of recorded crime Life expectancy at birth for males is lower (aged 78.90) than females (aged 83.60) for Cherwell. Life expectancy in Cherwell for males is also lower than the average for Oxfordshire (79.90), the South East (79.70), but higher than the national average (78.58). Life expectancy for females is higher than both the average for the South East (83.50) and the national average (82.57), but lower than Oxfordshire (84.10). By Oxfordshire and SE standards, house prices are relatively low in Cherwell at an average of 247,000 in Houses in Cherwell are also relatively affordable compared with other districts in Oxfordshire and with the SE region as a whole. However, by national standards, and in comparison with most of the comparator districts, houses in Cherwell are expensive relative to earnings. The crime rate in Cherwell is below the county and regional average, but above those for the other Oxfordshire districts (except Oxford city). viii

12 Figure 1: Map showing the proposed development site in relation to Bicester town currently Source: Produced by SQW (March 2011). Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights. Licence number ix

13 1. Introduction 1.1. This economic baseline has been prepared to inform the economic strategy for the Masterplanning of the development at North West Bicester. It uses data at the most relevant level available which is mainly the lowest level geography for which the data statistics are published. Data from the 2011 Census has been used where possible, as this is the most recent and robust published data covering the whole of the population, rather than a sample population The data concentrates on Bicester, and is presented along with comparator data for the wider district (Cherwell), county (Oxfordshire), sub region (defined below), region (South East) and country (England) For the Bicester Town area, we have used two sets of data cuts. The first takes the five wards encompassed within the ring road surrounding Bicester Town; we define this as Bicester Town. The second takes into account the three wards surrounding the town, where development over recent years has expanded to or is planned, we define this as Bicester wider area. Figure 1-1: Bicester Town and Bicester Wider Area definitions 1

14 Source: Produced by SQW (April 2013). Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights (2013). Licence number In addition to the county and regional definitions, we have also created a sub-regional comparator based on commuting patterns from the Annual Population Survey (APS). As the APS is based on a sample population and is subject to sampling errors we therefore can only use this data for indicative purposes in this instance Figure 1-2 maps those local authorities that feature in the top ten commuter areas (taking into account both residents commuting out and employees commuting in) in 2010 and Excluding the outliers of Birmingham, Huntingdonshire and the London Borough of Southwark, the remaining districts form the basis for the sub regional comparator. 2

15 Figure 1-2: ONS Annual Population Survey commuter flows, local authorities (2010 and 2011 top ten) Source: Produced by SQW (April 2013). Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights (2013). Licence number

16 2. Population, demographics and labour supply Table 2-1: Key findings on population, demographics and labour supply Key findings Bicester LSOA has a working age population of 67% which is slightly higher than Cherwell district (64.7%), Oxfordshire (65.4%) and England (64.8%) Bicester has a high proportion of white residents (93.3%) compared to Oxfordshire (90.9%) and England (85.4%) The largest proportion (25.2%) of Bicester residents are aged 30-44, which is notably higher than Cherwell (21.8%), Oxfordshire (20.7%) and England (20.6%). In Bicester, 11. 3% of the population are over 65, which is notably lower than Cherwell (15.3%), Oxfordshire (15.9%) and England (16.3%). The population of Cherwell has increased between 2001 and 2011, by 7.80%, which is comparable with Oxfordshire as a whole (7.82%), although lower than the population increase within the sub region (8.31%). 55.1% of Bicester s population are employed, with 82.3% of the working age population being in employment. This is higher than both the county, regional and national employment rate. Characteristics of the population 2.1. Table 2-2 provides the total population and the working population for Bicester, along with regional, national and county comparators. In 2011, total population in the Bicester wider area amounted to 41,350 people, of which 67% were of working age, this proportion was higher than the district, county, regional and national averages. 4

17 Table 2-2: Population 2011 Total population 2011 Working age population Number % Bicester (LSOA definition) 30,854 20, % Bicester (Wider definition) 41,350 27, % Cherwell 141,868 91, % Oxfordshire 653, % Sub region 2,537,248 1,654, % South East 8,634,750 5,510, % England 53,012,456 34,329, % Source: 2011 Census data 2.2. Table 2-3 and Table 2-4 provide an ethnicity and age breakdown for the surrounding geographies. Bicester has a proportion of 93.3% white residents, which is higher than the county, regional, and national proportion of white residents. 11.3% of Bicester s residents were aged over 65, which was lower than the district, county, regional and national proportion of over 65s. Table 2-3: Ethnicity 2011 White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Chinese or other Bicester (LSOA definition) 93.3% 1.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% Bicester (Wider definition) 94.4% 2.0% 3.0% 1.8% 0.4% Cherwell 92.2% 1.8% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% Oxfordshire 90.9% 2.0% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% Sub region 86.2% 2.4% 7.5% 3.2% 0.7% South East 90.7% 1.9% 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% England 85.4% 2.3% 7.8% 3.5% 1.0% Source: SQW analysis of 2011 Census data 5

18 Table 2-4: Age breakdown of population 2011 Age 0-14 Age Age Age Age 65+ Bicester (LSOA definition) 20.5% 18.9% 25.2% 24.1% 11.3% Bicester (Wider definition) 20.3% 19.2% 24.9% 24.2% 11.4% Cherwell 18.8% 18.0% 21.8% 26.0% 15.3% Oxfordshire 17.5% 20.9% 20.7% 25.0% 15.9% Sub region 18.2% 20.2% 21.1% 24.2% 15.4% South East 17.8% 18.6% 20.4% 26.1% 17.2% England 17.7% 20.0% 20.6% 25.4% 16.3% Source: SQW analysis of 2011 Census data Population change 2.3. Figure 2-1 outlines the population change for Cherwell between and 2010, relative to the region, sub region and national population change Figure 2-2 shows that Cherwell s population has increased by 7.8% between 2002 and 2011, which is comparable with the population change in the county, although lower than the population increase noted in the sub region. 6

19 Figure 2-1: Average Annual population growth, percentage change Source: SQW analysis of ONS Mid-year population estimates Figure 2-2: Population growth percentage increase Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data 7

20 Economic activity rates 2.6. Table 2-5 breaks down the population of Bicester and the surrounding areas by the total population which are economically active, and the percentage of the working age population which are economically active. 88.2% of Bicester s working age residents are economically active, which is higher than the county, regional and national proportion of economically active working age residents. Table 2-5: Economic activity of population (2011) Geography Number of working age residents economically active Percentage of the total population economic active Percentage of the working age population (WAP) economic active Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 18, % 88.2% Bicester (Wider area) 23, % 85.8% Cherwell 78, % 85.2% Oxfordshire 350, % 81.8% Sub-region 1,352, % 81.7% South East 4,521, % 82.0% England 27,183, % 79.2% Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data 2.7. The number and percentage of the working age population who are employed is outlined in Table 2-6 and displayed in Figure 2-3. Bicester has a working age population of 55.1%, which is higher than the county, regional and national working age population. Of the working population in Bicester, 82.3% are employed, which is higher than the county, regional, and national proportion of the working age population who are employed. 8

21 Table 2-6: Employment of population (2011) Geography Number of working age residents employed Percentage of the total population employed Percentage of the working age population (WAP) employed Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 17, % 82.3% Bicester (Wider area) 22, % 80.1% Cherwell 72, % 79.1% Oxfordshire 320, % 74.9% Sub-region 1,217, % 73.6% South East 4,095, % 74.3% England 24,143, % 70.3% Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data Figure 2-3: Economic Activity and Employment rates (working age population, 2011) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Economically Active Employment 0% Bicester Town Bicester Wider Cherwell Oxfordshire Sub region South East England Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data 9

22 3. Employment and labour demand Table 3-1: Key findings on Employment and labour demand Key findings The highest proportion of Bicester residents work within associate professional and occupational professions (13.8%), which is slightly higher than the sub region (13.2%) and national average (12.8%). Over represented sectors in Bicester include manufacturing (11.82% of total employees), public administration and defence (10.71% of total employees), and wholesale and retail trade (22.47% of total employees). Under represented sectors in Bicester include financial and insurance activities (2.63% of total employees) and real estate activities (0.95% of total employees). Logistics is a notable growth sector, which constitutes 13% of Bicester employees. However, other identified growth areas represent only a small proportion of Bicester employees such as auto engineering (1%) and construction (1%). Bicester has a higher proportion of full time employed residents (78.7%) compared to the county (76.1%), sub region (75.9%) and England (73.8%) Bicester has a relatively low proportion of self-employed residents (7.81%), compared to Cherwell (10.32%) and the sub region (10.02%). Characteristics of the employment base 3.1. The resident occupations of Bicester are shown in 10

23 3.2. Table % of Bicester residents work in professional occupations which is lower than the comparable proportion of county, regional and national occupations. Conversely, as shown by Figure 3-1, 10.3% of Bicester residents work in sales and customer service occupations which is higher than the proportion at a regional, county, and national scale. 11

24 Table 3-2: Resident occupations in 2011, the week before the census 1. Managers, directors & senior officials 2. Professional occupations 3. Associate professional & technical occupations 4. Administrative & secretarial occupations 5. Skilled trades occupations 6. Caring, leisure & other service occupations 7. Sales & customer service occupations 8. Process plant & machine operatives 9. Elementary occupations Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 11.1% 15.5% 13.8% 12.5% 11.2% 7.8% 10.3% 7.2% 10.7% Bicester (Wider area) 12.0% 15.5% 15.6% 12.1% 11.2% 7.6% 9.4% 6.6% 10.0% Cherwell 11.6% 16.7% 13.1% 11.3% 11.8% 8.4% 8.8% 7.8% 10.6% Oxfordshire 12.0% 22.7% 13.6% 10.3% 10.7% 8.3% 6.9% 5.7% 9.7% Sub-region 11.8% 19.6% 13.2% 11.2% 10.5% 8.5% 7.8% 6.2% 11.1% South East 12.3% 18.7% 13.8% 11.5% 11.1% 9.3% 7.9% 5.7% 9.7% England 10.9% 17.5% 12.8% 11.5% 11.4% 9.3% 8.4% 7.2% 11.1% Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data 12

25 Figure 3-1: Resident occupations in 2011 Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data Employment distribution across key sectors 3.3. Table 3-3 and Table 3-4 outline the key sectors in Bicester. We have calculated location quotients for which a figure of 1.25 or more suggests a degree of specialism compared to the regional average whilst a figure of 0.75 or below suggests that the sector is under represented in the area. Over represented sectors in Bicester include Manufacturing (Location quotient of 1.48), and public administration and defence (Location quotient of 1.6). 13

26 Table 3-3: Over-represented Sector employment in Bicester LSOA area Percentage of total employees Manufacturing 11.82% 1.48 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles 22.47% 1.30 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 10.71% 1.60 LQ (SE comparator) Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies 0.27% 5.20 Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data. Table 3-4: Other important Sectors in Bicester Number of employees % of total employees Agriculture, forestry and fishing % 0.55 Mining and quarrying % 0.08 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply % 0.74 Water supply, sewerage, waste management % 0.98 Construction 1, % 0.87 Transport and storage % 0.80 Accommodation and food service activities % 0.85 Information and communication % 0.91 Financial and insurance activities % 0.53 Real estate activities % 0.59 Professional, scientific and technical activities 1, % 0.79 Administrative and support service activities % 0.84 Human health and social work activities 1, % 0.84 Arts, entertainment and recreation % 0.80 LQ (SE comparator) Activities of households as employers % 0.44 Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data 14

27 Potential growth sectors 3.4. Table 3-5 outlines number of people employed across the various sectors which have been identified as potential growth sectors. The table reflects that there is a relative strength in the logistics potential growth sector (13% of Bicester s total employment), compared to regional, county and national proportion of total employment. Table 3-5: Employee Numbers (percentage of total employment) Potential Growth Sectors Bicester Town (LSOA definition) Bicester (Wider area) Cherwell Oxfordshire England Environmental goods and services sector 100 (0.5%) 200 (1%) 800 (1%) 2,700 (1%) 217,200 (1%) Construction of buildings and high value construction 100 (1%) 200 (1%) 1,000 (1%) 6,000 (2%) 346,200 (2%) Auto engineering and high performance engineering 200 (1%) 300 (2%) 800 (1%) 12,000 (4%) 497,200 (2%) Knowledge Intensive Manufacturing 100 (0.4%) 100 (0.3%) 200 (0.3%) 2,257 (1%) 159,100 (1%) Logistics 1,700 (13%) 1,700 (10%) 4,600 (7%) 15,400 (5%) 1,407,900 (6%) Professional, business and financial services 200 (2%) 300 (2%) 1,100 (2%) 7,400 (2%) 874,700 (4%) Source: BRES

28 Full-time versus part-time employment 3.5. Table 3-6 outlines the proportion of full time and part time employment in Bicester and the surrounding areas. 78.7% of Bicester s employees work full time, which is higher than the proportion of full time employees at a county, regional and national scale. Table 3-6: Part time and full time employment Resident Geography Full time Part time Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 78.7% 21.3% Bicester (Wider area) 78.8% 21.2% Cherwell 75.7% 24.3% Oxfordshire 76.1% 23.9% Sub-region 75.9% 24.1% South East 74.6% 25.4% England 73.8% 26.2% Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data. Self-employment 3.6. Table 3-7 shows the proportion of the population which is selfemployed. A lower proportion of Bicester s population are self-employed (7.81%) relative to the region, county and England as whole. Table 3-7: Self-employment rates 2011 Geography Proportion of self employed Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 7.81% Bicester (Wider area) 8.49% Cherwell 10.32% Oxfordshire 10.46% Sub-region 10.02% South East 11.02% England 9.76% Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data. 16

29 4. Business performance and competiveness Table 4-1: Key findings on business performance and competitiveness Key findings The number of active enterprises per 10,000 working age population for Cherwell is lower than Oxfordshire (683.6) although higher than the sub region (677.7) and England (594.5). The number of new enterprises per 10,000 working age population is lower in Cherwell (64.9) than for Oxfordshire (65.2), the sub region (65.4) and England (67.7). The 1 year business survival rate for Cherwell is 98.3%, which is higher than the county (97.8%), sub region (97.0%) and national (96.5%) survival rate. The 5 year business survival rate for Cherwell (50.0%) is higher than the sub region (48.2%) and the national 5 year business survival rate (44.8%) but lower than the rate for Oxfordshire (52.5%). In October 2012, 76.1% of Cherwell notified vacancies were for full time positions, which is a higher proportion than the sub-region (75.8%) although lower than the portion of full time vacancies in Oxfordshire (76.2%). The highest proportion of Job Centre vacancies in Cherwell were in elementary occupations (25.6%) which was higher than the Oxfordshire (23.3%), the sub region (23.4) and national (20.6%) proportion of elementary vacancies. However, figures provided by Oxfordshire County Council show that the highest percentage of job vacancies within the wider Bicester area for the first seven months of 2013 were in sales and customer service occupations (15%), closely followed by professional and technical occupations. 17

30 Business start-up activity company births and deaths, VAT registrations 4.1. The number of active enterprises and new enterprises are outlined in Table 4-2. Cherwell has active enterprises per 10,000 working age population, and 64.9 enterprise births per 10,000 working age population, which is comparable to the region and the county proportions, as presented in Figure 4-1 and 4.2. Figure 4-2. Table 4-2: Number of active enterprises and business births per 10,000 working age population Working age population Number of active enterprises in 2011 Active enterprises per 10,000 working age population Enterprise births in 2011 New enterprises per 10,000 working age population Cherwell 91,723 6, Oxfordshire , , Sub-region 1,654, , , South East 5,510, , , England 34,329,091 2,040, , Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data and ONS Business Demographics 18

31 Figure 4-1: Active enterprises per 10,000, working age population 2011 Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data and ONS Business Demographics Figure 4-2: New enterprises per 10,000, working age population Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data and ONS Business Demographics Business survival rates 4.3. Table 4-3 presents the five year business survival rates for enterprises born in Cherwell has a marginally higher 1 year business survival rates (98.3%) compared to county, regional and national 1 year survival rates. The 5 year business survival rate for Cherwell is 50% which is 19

32 lower than Oxfordshire, although higher than the regional and national rate. Five year business rates are presented in Figure 4-3. Table 4-3: Five year business survival rates Enterprises born in 2005 Births (2006) 1 year (per cent) 2 year (per cent) 3 year (per cent) 4 year (per cent) 5 year (per cent) Cherwell 98.3% 84.2% 70.0% 57.5% 50.0% Oxfordshire 97.0% 83.0% 71.2% 59.8% 52.5% Sub-region 97.0% 82.5% 68.9% 56.6% 48.2% South East 97.0% 82.7% 68.8% 56.3% 47.8% England 96.5% 80.7% 66.2% 53.0% 44.8% Source: SQW analysis of Business demography 2011 Figure 4-3: Five year Business survival rates Enterprises born in 2006 Source: SQW analysis of Business demography 2011 Job vacancies 4.4. Table 4-4 outlines the number of job centre vacancies, and the proportion of these vacancies which are full time and part time vacancies. 76.1% of Cherwell s vacancies are full time, which is comparable to the county proportion, although higher than the regional and national proportion of full time vacancies. Cherwell has a high 20

33 proportion of vacancies in elementary occupations (25.6%) and process, plant and machine operatives (23.7%), relative to the county, regional and national proportion of vacancies within these industries. Table 4-4: Job Centre Plus Vacancies (October 2012) Total notified vacancies Full-time vacancies Part-time vacancies Cherwell 1, % 23.9% Oxfordshire 5, % 23.8% Sub-region 25, % 24.2% South East 53, % 29.7% England 366, % 27.9% Source: SQW analysis of DWP data Table 4-5: Job Centre Plus Vacancies by occupation (October 2012) Managers and Senior Officials Professional Occupations Associate Professional and Technical Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Occupations Skilled Trades Occupations Personal Service Occupations Sales and Customer Service occupations Cherwell Oxfordshire Subregion South East England 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 5.0% 9.0% 9.0% 10.9% 10.8% 6.6% 7.7% 5.5% 6.3% 5.4% 9.5% 10.3% 8.0% 10.2% 8.5% 13.9% 13.6% 14.3% 14.7% 13.9% 11.7% 8.9% 16.5% 12.9% 16.6% 21

34 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives Elementary Occupations Cherwell Oxfordshire Subregion South East England 23.7% 21.5% 18.6% 15.3% 17.8% 25.6% 23.3% 22.7% 23.4% 20.6% Source: SQW analysis of DWP data 4.5. Data provided by Oxfordshire County Council from Labour Insight, a real time vacancy counting system show the vacancies advertised for the wider Bicester area between 1st January and 31st July 2013 by occupational group. This shows that the highest percentage of job vacancies within the wider Bicester area for the first seven months of 2013 were in sales and customer service occupations (15%), closely followed by professional and technical occupations. Table 4-6: Vacancies advertised by occupation group Occupation group Managers, directors and senior officials Number of Jobs % Professional occupations % Associate professional and technical occupations Administrative and secretarial occupations % % Skilled trades occupations % Caring, leisure and other service occupations Sales and customer service occupations Process, plant and machine operatives % % % Percentage of Total Jobs (01/01/13 31/07/13) Elementary occupations % Source: Labour Insight data provided by Oxfordshire County Council 4.6. Further to this, detailed occupation group analysis (4-digit code) shows that the highest number of job openings in the period 1st January 31st July 2013 were for Sales Supervisors (103 job openings). 22

35 5. Education, Skills and Training Table 5-1: Key findings on Education, skills and training Key findings GCSE attainment varied significantly between the two wards for which information was available, with 88.7% of pupils in Bicester East achieving A* to C grades (in five or more subjects) compared to 61.9% in Bicester Town. 81% of Cherwell pupils achieved A*- C grades in 5 which was higher than the average for Oxfordshire (76.2%), although lower than the average for the South East (82%) and England 83.2%). Young people in Oxfordshire achieved an average QCDA point score of which was substantially lower than the South East (726.5) and England (733). The proportion of NEETs in Bicester is 4.0%, which is comparable to Didcot (3.4%) and Witney (4.1%) although lower than East Oxford (6.6%) and Littlemore (10.4%). The proportion of employed population who had received training was 21.2%, which was lower than the proportion in Oxfordshire (24.0%), the South East (27.3%) and England (26.5%) Bicester has a relatively high proportion of its working population with Level 1 or 2 qualifications. It has a relatively low proportion with either no qualifications (17.5%, higher than Oxfordshire (16.7%) but lower than the sub region (19.1%) and England (22.5%)) or with Level 4 qualifications (26.2%, compared to Cherwell (28.1%), the sub region (31.3%) and England (27.4%)) GCSE attainment and A level attainment 5.1. Table 5-2 outlines GCSE attainment for all pupils at the end of Key stage 4 attaining five or more A* to C grades. In Bicester East 88.7% of 23

36 pupils were achieving five or more A* to C grades in 2012, which is higher relative to county, regional and national results. Table 5-2: GCSE and equivalent results for Young people (referenced by location of pupil residence) 2012 All pupils at the end of KS4 Achieving 5+ A* to C grades Bicester East 88.7 * Bicester Town 61.9 * Cherwell 81.0 * Oxfordshire South East All pupils at the end of KS4 Achieving 5+ A* to C grades including English and Maths England Note- * denotes that no information was available. Bicester Town and Bicester East are the only LSOA areas for which the data was available. Source: DfE 2012, revised figures The average level 3 QCDA scores set out in Table 5-3, which shows that the average QCDA point score for Oxfordshire (703.3) was lower than the average score for the South East and England. Table 5-3: GCE/Applied GCE/AS and Equivalent Results (Level 3) for Young People (referenced by location of pupil residence) Oxfordshire South East Average Level 3 QCDA Point Score per Student England 733 Source: DfE 2012, revised figures. Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) 5.3. Table 5-4 describes the proportion of year olds who aren t in employment, education or training. In Bicester, 4.0% of year olds are NEET, which is comparable to the proportion of NEET noted in the surrounding areas. 24

37 Table 5-4: Proportion of year olds known to be not in employment, education or training (August 2012) Area % NEET Number of NEET Abingdon Didcot East Oxford Littlemore Banbury Bicester Witney Source: Data from Youth, Engagement and Opportunities team Profile database as part of Oxfordshire 2nd Annual Skills Needs Analysis 2 Participation in training by the working age population 5.4. The proportion of the employed population that had received training in the last 13 weeks is set out in Table % of Cherwell s employed population had received training in the last 12 weeks which was lower in comparison to the county, regional and national proportion of the population who had received training. Table 5-5: Percentage of employed population receiving training in the last 13 weeks, Averaged across three years ( ) Proportion of employed population who had received training in the last 13 weeks (Averaged ) Cherwell 21.2% Oxfordshire 24.0% Sub-region 25.1% South East 27.3% England 26.5% Source: Annual Population Survey Oxfordshire County Council (2013) Oxfordshire 2nd Annual Skills Needs Analysis: Economic Baseline Accessed at: content/uploads/2013/04/oxfordshire Skills Needs Analysis 2 April 2013 final.pdf 25

38 Skills of the working age population 5.5. Table 5-6 describes the skills level of the working age population. Bicester has a proportion n of the working age population with level 4 qualifications of 26.2% which is lower than the county, region and national proportion, as shown in Figure 5-1. It also has a relatively low proportion of the working age population with no qualifications, and relatively high proportions with Level 1 and 2 qualifications. Table 5-6: Skills Level (NVQ) Working age population No qualifications Level 1 qualifications Level 2 qualifications Level 3 qualifications Level 4 qualifications and above Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 17.5% 17.0% 16.8% 12.7% 26.2% Bicester (Wider area) 17.4% 16.8% 16.7% 12.5% 26.7% Cherwell 20.2% 15.2% 15.8% 11.6% 28.1% Oxfordshire 16.7% 12.0% 13.8% 13.3% 35.7% Sub-region 18.7% 13.1% 14.8% 12.8% 31.3% South East 19.1% 13.5% 15.9% 12.8% 29.9% England 22.5% 13.3% 15.2% 12.4% 27.4% Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data 26

39 Figure 5-1: Proportion of working age population with no qualifications, Level 1, Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4+ qualifications Excludes apprenticeships and other qualifications, which constitute the rest of the sample. Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data. Participation in post 16 education 5.6. Table 5-7 presents the number of year old learners within the wider Bicester area participating in post 16 education. This does not include private education or apprenticeship participation. This shows that in 2011/12 there were a total of year olds in post 16 education, representing 55% of all year olds. Table 5-7: Number of learners participating in post 16 education FE and Independent Training Providers 2011/12 Percentage of year olds 1,383 (2011 Census) % School Sixth Form % Total % Source: Education Funding Agency Data supplied by Oxfordshire County Council and Census 2011 Data from ONS 27

40 Apprenticeship Participation 5.7. Data provided by National Apprenticeship shows the number of year olds participating or starting on an Apprenticeship during the academic year 2012/13. This data is based on resident postcodes for Bicester. This shows that year olds were participating in apprenticeships in July Table 5-8: The numbers of year olds Bicester residents participating or starting on an Apprenticeship during the academic year 2012/13 As at July 2013 Participating Starting OX25 (surrounding area/ area covering NW Bicester) 14 9 OX26 (Bicester) OX27 (surrounding area/ area covering NW Bicester) 8 5 Total Source: National Apprenticeship Data supplied by Oxfordshire County Council Adult Participation 5.8. Data from the Skills Funding Agency on adult (19+) participation in further education and training is only available at a Cherwell district level 4. Education and Training is flexible provision at all levels, including academic and vocational, that supports learners to gain employment or progress onto Higher Education. Community learning covers a wide range of informal courses from personal development to older people s learning, family learning and activities to promote civic engagement and community development. Apprenticeship training incorporates on- and off-the-job training designed around the needs of employers, leading to nationally recognised qualifications. 3 No figure available for a robust or direct comparison with the data at a larger spatial level. 4 No figure available for a robust or direct comparison with the data at a larger spatial level. 28

41 Workplace Learning is provision to support employers in up skilling their workforce with a focus on SMEs and those individuals that do not have a full level 2 qualification. Table 5-9: Cherwell adult participation in further learning 2011/12 Percentage of total learners Education and Training 4,160 51% Apprenticeships 1,730 21% Workplace Learning % Community Learning 1,460 18% Total learners (FE and Skills) 8,120 Source: Skills Funding Agency Data supplied by Oxfordshire County Council Note: Please note that this data only contains learner information from FE providers, not school sixth forms. 29

42 6. Social inclusion and social infrastructure Table 6-1: Key findings on Social inclusion and social infrastructure Key findings The unemployment rate in Bicester (2.41%) is higher than the rate for Cherwell (0.03%), Oxfordshire (0.01%) although lower than the regional (4.07%) and national (4.96%) rate. 15 of the 25 Bicester LSOAs were in the least deprived 20% of the overall index of multiple deprivation, and none of the LSOAs were in the most deprived 20%. The gross average weekly pay for Cherwell residents was 536.8, which is higher than the national average weekly pay ( 512.7) but lower than the county ( 560.7) and sub-regional ( 544.7) average weekly pay. The gross average weekly pay for Cherwell workers is 489.3, which is lower than the average weekly pay for the county ( 536.6) and the sub-region ( 518.7). The difference between resident and worker pay is greatest in Cherwell ( 47.5) compared to Oxfordshire ( 24.1) and the sub region ( 26.0). Unemployment rates 6.1. Table 6-2 described the proportion of the working age population which is unemployed. Within Bicester the unemployment rate is 2.41%, which is higher than the county rate and the regional rate, although lower than the national rate. 30

43 Table 6-2: Unemployment in 2011 Bicester (LSOA Town definition) 499 Number of unemployed Rate (% of working age population) 2.41% Bicester (Wider area) 2, % Cherwell % Oxfordshire % Sub-region 67, % South East 216, % England 1,702, % Source: SQW analysis of Census 2011 data Index of Multiple Deprivation 6.2. The overall indices of multiple deprivation for the wards within and around Bicester and the surrounding areas are displayed in Table 6-1. Figure 6-1: Overall Indices of Multiple Deprivation Rankings- Bicester and Surrounding LSOAs Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation Produced by SQW (May 2013). Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights. Licence number

44 6.3. The deprivation rankings for wards within Bicester are summarised within Table 6-3. In terms of overall ranking, none of the 25 super output areas within Bicester fall within the most deprived 20%. Table 6-3: Deprivation Rankings Bicester and surrounding LSOAs Domain National Rankings (Total SOAs -25) LSOAs in the Most deprived 20% LSOAs 20-40% LSOAs 40%- 60% LSOAs 60-80% LSOAs in the Least deprived 20% Most deprived Least Deprived Overall ranking Income Employment Health and Disability Education, Skills and Training Barriers to Housing and Services Living Environment Crime Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2011 Average earnings 6.4. Table 6-4 sets out the resident and workplace gross weekly pay. Cherwell has a relatively large difference between the resident and workplace gross weekly pay of 47.5 which was higher than the county, regional and national difference between resident and workplace weekly pay. 32

45 Table 6-4: Average earnings Gross weekly Resident and Worker Pay ( ) 2011 Gross weekly pay- resident ( ) Gross weekly pay- workplace ( ) Cherwell Oxfordshire Sub-region South East Difference between resident and worker pay ( ) England Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings,

46 7. Welfare and Community Table 7-1: Key findings on Welfare and Community Key findings Average life expectancy for males was lower than for females. Average life expectancy in Cherwell was 78.9 for males, which is lower than Oxfordshire (79.9), the average for the sub region (79.4) but higher than England (78.5). Average life expectancy in Cherwell for females was 83.6, which was lower than Oxfordshire (84.1), although higher than the sub region average (83.48) and the average for England (82.57). Life expectancy 7.1. Life expectancy at birth for males and females is outlined below in Table 7-2. The average life expectancy for males in Cherwell is 78.9, which is lower than the county, regional life expectancy. For females in Cherwell the life expectancy is 83.6 which lower than the county life expectancy, although higher than the regional and national life expectancy. Table 7-2: Life expectancy at birth Life expectancy at birth- males Cherwell Oxfordshire Sub-region (average) Aylesbury Vale District Cotswold District Cherwell District Coventry District Daventry District Milton Keynes District Life expectancy at birth - females 34

47 Life expectancy at birth- males Northampton District Oxford District Reading District Rugby District Life expectancy at birth - females South Northamptonshire District South Oxfordshire District Stratford-on-Avon District Vale of White Horse District Warwick District West Oxfordshire District Wycombe District South East England Source: ONS Life expectancy at birth Figure 7-1 presents the life expectancy at birth for males and females. Figure 7-1: Life expectancy at birth Note: Sub region is based on the average male and female life expectancy of the 17 districts. Source: ONS Life expectancy at birth

48 A2Dominion, Godstow Court, 5 West Way, Oxford, OX2 0GE