1Q2009. Inland Empire UCR May 21, Q09. Copyright Metrostudy

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1 1Q2009 Inland Empire UCR May 21, 2009 Copyright Metrostudy

2 The Economy Copyright Metrostudy

3 National Economic Overview BOOSTERS TO THE ECONOMY Very Strong Government Spending Low Inflation Rate Relatively Low Energy Prices Low Mortgage Rates Copyright Metrostudy

4 National Economic Overview THREATS TO THE ECONOMY Falling Housing Demand due to the absence of mortgage money Collapsing Mortgage backed securities market Liquidity Crisis Declining GDP Growth Massive Job Loss Copyright Metrostudy 2009

5 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW GDP Growth Rate (Quarterly) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 3.5% FED TARGET Source: U. S. Dept. of Commerce 0% -2% -4% -6% -6.20% -8% 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q Copyright Metrostudy

6 Employment Copyright Metrostudy

7 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Annual Job Growth Trend 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - (1,000,000) (2,000,000) (3,000,000) (4,000,000) (5,000,000) (6,000,000) Mar 2004 Sep 2004 Mar 2005 Sep 2005 Mar 2006 Sep 2006 Mar 2007 Sep 2007 Mar 20 Sep 20 Mar 2009 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Copyright Metrostudy

8 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Employment Growth by Industry Education & Health Services Government Natural Resources & Mining Information 1Q2009 Other Services Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality Construction Prof & Business Services Transportation, Trade & Utilities Manufacturing (1,500,000) (1,000,000) (500,000) - 500,000 Copyright Metrostudy

9 9.0% 8.0% NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Unemployment Rate Trend 8.5% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q 3Q Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Copyright Metrostudy

10 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ISM - Purchasing Managers Index GROWTH NO GROWTH RECESSION Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar- Sep- Mar-09 Source: Institute of Supply Management Copyright Metrostudy

11 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Initial Unemployment Claims 700, ,000 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 600, , , , , , , ,000 Nov- 05 Mar- 06 Jul- 06 Nov- 06 Mar- 07 Jul- 07 Nov- 07 Mar- Jul- Nov- Mar- 09 Copyright Metrostudy

12 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Top 25 US Job Growth Markets Topeka KS Laredo TX Bloomington-Normal IL Coeur dalene ID Waco TX Bismarck ND Kennewick-Richland-Pasco WA College Station-Bryan TX Wichita KS New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner LA Morgantown WV Tyler TX Baton Rouge LA Austin-Round Rock TX Columbia MO Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux LA Grand Junction CO Oklahoma City OK Odessa TX Midland TX Anchorage AK Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood TX Champaign-Urbana IL Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Copyright Metrostudy

13 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island NY-NJ-PA Detroit-Warren-Livonia MI Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL Orlando FL Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC-SC Denver-Aurora CO Las Vegas-Paradise NV Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR-WA Cincinnati-Middletown OH-KY-IN Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI St. Louis MO-IL Naples-Marco Island FL NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Bottom 20 US Job Growth Markets Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) - Copyright Metrostudy

14 Conclusions Copyright Metrostudy

15 National Economic Overview THE ECONOMY & EMPLOYMENT GDP Growth reflects a severe recession CPI (inflation) is expected to continue to fall as consumers spend less Job losses are accelerating at an alarming rate The unemployment rate is above 8% and expected to continue upward The Purchasing Managers Index is predicting a recession in the manufacturing sector and the overall economy for next 12 months Initial Unemployment Claims are moving up signaling an increase in the difficulty in finding new jobs Copyright Metrostudy

16 Consumer Confidence Copyright Metrostudy

17 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index Q94 3Q95 1Q97 3Q98 1Q00 3Q01 1Q03 3Q04 1Q06 3Q07 Source: Conference Board GROWTH STATIC RECESSION Copyright Metrostudy

18 GROWTH NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index 70.0 STATIC RECESSION Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 Source: Conference Board Copyright Metrostudy

19 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index - ALL REGIONS Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-09 Apr-09 Source: Conference Board National Index PACIFIC (WA, OR, AK, HI, CA) NEW ENGLAND MIDDLE ATLANTIC (PA, NJ, NY) EAST NORTH CENTRAL (IL, IN, OH, MI, WI) WEST NORTH CENTRAL (MN, IA, MO, NE, KS, ND, SD) SOUTH ATLANTIC (DE, MD, VA, DC, NC, SC, GA, FL, WV) EAST SOUTH CENTRAL (KY, TN, AL, MS) WEST SOUTH CENTRAL (AR, LA, OK, TX) MOUNTAIN (MT, ID, WY, AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT) Copyright Metrostudy

NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW WEST (California) Consumer Confidence Index 180.0 150.

20 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW WEST (California) Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Conf Index PACIFIC (WA, OR, AK, HI, CA) Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-09 Apr-09 Source: Conference Board Copyright Metrostudy

21 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW WEST (California) Consumer Confidence Index Future Expectation Source: Conference Board Present Situation 0 Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-09 Apr-09 Copyright Metrostudy

22 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index - Home Buying Plans % Source: Conference Board Million Home Buying Households Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 Intend to Purchase Copyright Metrostudy

23 % NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index - Home Buying Plans Source: Conference Board 1.6 Million Resale Buying Households Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 Intend to Purchase Used Home Copyright Metrostudy

24 % NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index - Home Buying Plans Source: Conference Board 0.3 Million New Home Buying Households Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 Intend to Purchase Used Home New Home Copyright Metrostudy

25 % NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Consumer Confidence Index - Home Buying Plans Source: Conference Board 0.6 Million Undecided Households Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 Intend to Purchase Used Home New Home Undecided Copyright Metrostudy

26 Interest Rates Copyright Metrostudy

27 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Short Term Mortgage Rate Trend 7.00% 6.75% 6.78% 6.66% Source: Freddie Mac 6.50% 6.25% 6.00% 5.75% 6.25% 6.04% 6.27% 5.91% 6.35% 6.40% 6.18% 6.26% 6.42% 5.97% 6.32% 6.04% 5.50% 5.25% 5.72% 5.68% 5.29% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50% 4.25% 4.85% 4.80% 4.00% 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q 4Q 2Q09 Copyright Metrostudy

28 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Mortgage Rate Trend History 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 4.80 % 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Source: Freddie Mac Apr-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09 Copyright Metrostudy

29 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Top 25 US Housing Markets by Annual Permits Baltimore-Towson MD Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR-WA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA Salt Lake City UT Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL Indianapolis IN Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA Jacksonville FL Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MA-NH Las Vegas-Paradise NV San Antonio TX Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC-SC Raleigh-Cary NC Austin-Round Rock TX Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ Orlando FL Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island NY-NJ-PA Source: U. S. Dept of Commerce METROSTUDY MARKETS - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Copyright Metrostudy

30 Home Prices Copyright Metrostudy

31 $200,000 $190,000 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Affordability & Home buying Power 1Q04 $190,000 4Q $234,000 $35,800 $198, % 8.00% 7.50% $180,000 $170, % 6.50% 6.00% $160, % 5.00% $150, % 2Q00 2Q01 2Q02 2Q03 2Q04 2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q 2Q09 HOME PRICE MORTAGE RATE Copyright Metrostudy

32 The Bottom Line The outlook for the housing market, and the U. S. economy remains very bleak. The bailout plan has done little to free up mortgage loans, as Wall Street and the banks deal with massive investment losses. It is unlikely that anyone in Washington or on Wall Street knows what to do to avoid further collapse in the economy. The primary signal that we are on the right track toward recovery will be action by the Congress and the administration, to set aside political interests and focus on decisions that will help the economy recover Copyright Metrostudy

33 Current Market Conditions Copyright Metrostudy

34 Current Market Conditions Great time to buy Lots of deals and incentives Low prices New homes are affordable now Great Interest Rates Mortgage qualification is more difficult Foreclosure properties have created opportunity Copyright Metrostudy

35 New v. Resale Copyright Metrostudy

36 Advantages of Resales Character Location Large lots More cabinet space Some remodeled already Sellers willing to negotiate Foreclosure properties represent unique opportunities Sense all have been taken Significant repairs Copyright Metrostudy

37 Disadvantages of Resales Someone else s home Require remodeling Extensive repairs (particularly distressed) Potential for more repairs Old plumbing A/C units Old appliances resales have unusable yards (slope) Homes do not feel open, particularly in the kitchen Even if remodeled, may not match their tastes Copyright Metrostudy

38 Advantages of New Homes Incentives Closing costs Appliances Options First ones to occupy Ability to customize Specs have modern finishes Can create and design backyard Less likely to require repairs Those have new homes disagreed Did not note that repairs were at builder s cost New homes are now affordable were not during the boom Copyright Metrostudy

39 Disadvantages of New Homes Quality of construction and craftsmanship? Concerns about quality of construction were pervasive, particularly in Group Two Quick build equated with low quality Tract home look Too close Small lots Quality of the neighborhood, particularly if affordable Potential foreclosures and values Copyright Metrostudy

40 Weekly Sales Traffic per Subdivision J F M A M J J A S O N D Copyright Metrostudy

41 Weekly Conversion Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% J F M A M J J A S O N D Copyright Metrostudy

42 Weekly Net Contracts per Subdivision J F M A M J J A S O N D Copyright Metrostudy

43 Weekly Cancellation Rate 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% J F M A M J J A S O N D Copyright Metrostudy

44 Southern California Housing Market New and Used (DQ) Total Sales March San Diego 3, % Los Angeles 5, % Orange 2, % Riverside 4, % Ventura % San Bern. 2, % 19, % Copyright Metrostudy

45 Inland Empire Median Price of New Units Sold: $304, , , , , , ,000 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q 4Q Copyright Metrostudy

46 Inland Empire Market Quarterly Starts & Closings History All Housing 902 Starts and 1,414 Closings Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Starts Closings Copyright Metrostudy

47 L.A./O.C./I.E./CV/Ventura Regional Market Annual Starts by Market Area 3,500 3,000 2,500 3,135 2,287 2,000 1,710 1,500 1, West Riverside Los Angeles San Bernardino Coachella Valley Orange Ventura Copyright Metrostudy

48 Los Angeles County Annual Starts by Market Area / Housing Type Detached Attached Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Copyright Metrostudy

49 Orange County Annual Starts by Market Area / Housing Type 7000 Detached Attached Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Copyright Metrostudy

50 Ventura County Annual Starts by Market Area / Housing Type 3000 Detached Attached Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Copyright Metrostudy

51 Inland Empire Market Housing Inventory All Finished Vacant Inventory declined 4 % in the 1st quarter Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Under Construction Finished Vacant Housing MOS Copyright Metrostudy

52 Southern California Coastal Regional Market Housing Inventory - New home production inventory attached/detached UNCHANGED in the 1 ST Quarter Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Under Construction Finished Vacant Housing MOS Copyright Metrostudy

53 Southern California Coastal Regional Market Attached Housing Inventory - New home attached Finished inventory increased 10 % Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Under Construction Finished Vacant Housing MOS Copyright Metrostudy

54 Southern California Coastal Regional Market Detached Inventory - New home production inventory Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Under Construction Finished Vacant Housing MOS Copyright Metrostudy

55 MONTHS OF STANDING INVENTORY Inland Empire st Qtr 2009 Statistics Orange County 12.3 LA County 11.8 Inland Empire 4.6 4Q92 2Q93 4Q93 2Q94 4Q94 2Q95 4Q95 2Q96 4Q96 2Q97 4Q97 2Q98 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q 4Q Riverside Inland Empire San Bernardino Source: Market Monitor, Metrostudy Copyright Metrostudy

56 Inventory is moving in the right Direction Consumers have reacted well to the Tax Rebates Small price increases have been reported at a few projects The Elephant in the corner is the Foreclosure Inventory and the timing of the next wave. Copyright Metrostudy

57 National Comparison and Other Trends Copyright Metrostudy

58 National Comparison Resale market softest in Florida, healthiest in CA, TX Markets by Months of Supply of Resale Listings Technically in equilibrium per NAR Copyright Metrostudy

59 National Comparison Finished Vacant units an issue in FL, western markets Markets by Months of Supply of Finished Vacant Units Copyright Metrostudy

60 Inland Empire Market Vacant Developed Lots - The Inland Empire has 24,834 Vacant Developed Lots on the Ground, a 61.5 MOS... VDL 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 MOS Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q074Q07 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 0 Copyright Metrostudy

61 Foreclosures Copyright Metrostudy

62 NATIONAL FORECLOSURE TRENDS SOURCE: REALTY TRAC Copyright Metrostudy

63 Copyright Metrostudy

64 The New Market The next cycle will emerge on I.E. finished lots, lots of lots. Consumers need to gain more confidence in the economy over the next year The first step will be a shelter driven market Markets near employment centers will correct first Copyright Metrostudy

65 New Products Green Building embracing all aspects of planning and building Energy consumption will take on more importance Water utilization is the bane of the industry. Vehicle trip miles is the elephant in the corner Copyright Metrostudy

66 New Product More urbanized Higher density Close to employment centers These products will be targeted to the next generation of home buyers. Many genexers and gen y value time and do not wish to commute. Copyright Metrostudy

67 Product Utility Smaller homes More utility in floorplan Optional upgrades Less volume inside Fewer garage spaces Copyright Metrostudy

68 The Picture Heard Around the World Copyright Metrostudy

48,450,000 l. 20,750 kg oz. environmental commitment. of agricultural water saved annually. of carbon dioxide kept out of the air each year

48,450,000 l. 20,750 kg oz. environmental commitment. of agricultural water saved annually. of carbon dioxide kept out of the air each year 48,450,000 l of agricultural water saved annually environmental commitment each piece of our clothing makes an impact 20,750 kg of carbon dioxide kept out of the air each year 6528 oz of deadly toxic pesticides