Global Economic Outlook : New Horizons for Agriculture & Agri-food
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1 Voir Steph pour la présentation corpo Chute: Notre travail instaurer une culture du changement. Global Economic Outlook : New Horizons for Agriculture & Agri-food Vivez l effet de la coopération Vincent Cloutier, agr. Chief Economist MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE FOUR NO THREE! Vincent Cloutier 1
2 Economy Environment Farmers Technology Consumer Shift of the economic center of gravity AD Source : McKinsey Institute Vincent Cloutier 2
3 Source: IMF China, India, Indonesia Source : IMF Vincent Cloutier 3
4 Regional Trade Agreements In Force Source : The Economist Seeds: Highly concentrated Rank Company Seed sales 2014 (MUSD) Share of world s market 1 Monsanto (USA) % 2 DuPont-Pioneer (USA) % 3 Syngenta (Switzerland) % 4 Vilmorin (Groupe Limagrain) % 5 Dow Agricultural Sciences (USA) % 6 WinField (Land O Lakes) (estimation) % 7 Bayer Cropscience (Germany) % 8 KWS Group (Germany) % 9 DLF Trifolium (Danmark) 593 1% 10 Sakata (Japan) 511 1% Total Top % Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Vincent Cloutier 4
5 Chemicals: Highly concentrated Rank Company Chemical sales 2014 (MUSD) Share of world s market 1 Syngenta (Switzerland) % 2 Bayer Cropscience (Germany) % 3 BASF (Germany) % 4 DOW Agroscience (USA) % 5 Monsanto (USA) % 6 DuPont (USA) % 7 ADAMA Ag. Solutions (China) % 8 Nufarm (Australia) % 9 Sumitomo (Japan) % 10 Arysta Life Science (Japan) % Total Top % Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Continuous consolidation Sources: Annual Reports, our calculations Seeds Chemicals Vincent Cloutier 5
6 Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Farmers Technology Consumer Vincent Cloutier 6
7 Oil: Polarized Costs of production Saudi Arabia: 15$-40$ COP North America: 55$-65$ COP Tar sands: 70+$ COP Tesla thinks BIG Vincent Cloutier 7
8 Global Water Scarcity Source: International water Management Institute Vincent Cloutier 8
9 Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Rising awareness New energetic era launched? Farmers Technology Consumer Vincent Cloutier 9
10 Vincent Cloutier 10
11 Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Rising awareness New energetic era started? Farmers Technology Rapid implantation Consumer Adult obesity in United States Vincent Cloutier 11
12 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1986 BRFSS, 1987 Adult obesity in United States Vincent Cloutier 12
13 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1988 BRFSS, 1989 Adult obesity in United States Vincent Cloutier 13
14 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1990 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1991 Vincent Cloutier 14
15 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1992 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1993 Vincent Cloutier 15
16 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1994 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1995 Indice de masse corporelle ou approx. 30 lbs de surpoids par personne de 5 4 Vincent Cloutier 16
17 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1996 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1997 Vincent Cloutier 17
18 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1998 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 1999 Vincent Cloutier 18
19 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2000 Indice de masse corporelle ou approx. 30 lbs de surpoids par personne de 5 4 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2001 Vincent Cloutier 19
20 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2002 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2003 Vincent Cloutier 20
21 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2004 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2005 Vincent Cloutier 21
22 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2006 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2007 Vincent Cloutier 22
23 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2008 No data < 10 % 10 % - 14 % 15 % - 19 % 20 % - 24 % 25 % - 29 % 3 0% Source : Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC. Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2009 Vincent Cloutier 23
24 Adult obesity in United States BRFSS, 2010 Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory BRFSS, 2011 *Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC Vincent Cloutier 24
25 Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory BRFSS, 2012 *Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC Prevalence* of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory BRFSS, 2013 *Prevalence estimates reflect BRFSS methodological changes started in These estimates should not be compared to prevalence estimates before Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC Vincent Cloutier 25
26 Quaterly Sales Change (comparable outlets) 35% Vincent Cloutier 26
27 Changing Consumer? Americans under the age of 35 prefer natural and organic food, which often costs more, and seek more transparency on labels. Bloomberg Businessweek, quoting Goldman Sachs Wal-Mart U.S. Annouces New Animal Welfare & Antibiotics Positions «We have listened to our customers, and are asking our suppliers to engage in improved reporting standards and transparency measures regarding the treatment of farm animals.» May 22 nd, 2015 Vincent Cloutier 27
28 Economy Rebalancing Trade, trade, trade Concentration Environment Rising awareness New energetic era started? Farmers Technology Rapid implantation Consumer Mistrustful & Selective Health & Morality North America & Europe Adapting to Evolving Ag Policy Water Next generation s involvement Eastern Europe & Asia Yield s Pollution management (water, air, soil) South America Improving Logistic Infrastructure Africa Irrigation Yields Structuring Value Chains Océania Water Next generation s Involvement Inspired from PwC Vincent Cloutier 28
29 Farm Consolidation Sources: Statistics Canada, USDA, RICA Farm Consolidation Sources: Statistics Canada, USDA, Eurostat Vincent Cloutier 29
30 Farm Consolidation Sources: Statistique Canada, USDA, RICA, IBGE Average Midpoint Vincent Cloutier 30
31 Vincent Cloutier 31
32 Vincent Cloutier 32
33 PRESERVE REFORM Vincent Cloutier 33
34 Vincent Cloutier 34
35 MERCI! Vincent Cloutier, agr. Chief Economist Vincent Cloutier 35
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